Rankings Financial data & insurance broking Monte dei Paschi

Monte dei Paschi

Financial data & insurance broking · ItalyRank 329 of 829Prices 3 Nov 2026Model 1.4

15070100

A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.

Biggest deductions

Multiples vs own history−9
Quality of growth−4
The price rests on Intesa's bid−4

Strengths

Capital+2
Dividend+1

How the score is built

From 100 to 66, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

66Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 10.85 EUR
Median analyst target: 12.15 EUR
Upside to median: +12.0%
Analysts: 6
Target range: 10.50 – 12.50 EUR
52-week change: +42%
P/E (trailing): 9.8
Forward P/E: 13.0
PEG: n/a

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−7 of −30

Quality of growth
Growth is bought: the share count has risen 111% over a year after the Mediobanca exchange (2.45 MPS shares per Mediobanca share), and analysts expect EPS of EUR 0.78 in 2026 vs. 1.55 in 2025 (−50%). Pro forma, revenue grew only 4.1% in H1 2026 to EUR 4.02bn.
stockanalysis.com
−4
Earnings stability
Short and unstable history: loss in 2022 (ROE −2.5%, capital increase of EUR 2.4bn), then ROE 23% in 2023 lifted by tax assets; the bank has been bailed out by the state several times since 2009 and has only paid normal dividends in 2025–2026.
stockanalysis.com
−3

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−12 of −35

Multiples vs own history
P/B 1.27 vs 0.14–0.92 in 2021–2025 (record) and trailing P/E 10.8 vs 1.9–10.2 (record, even on distorted EPS); the share price is +54% over one year. The stock now trades above Intesa's offer value (about 11.80 EUR) and above the price target.
stockanalysis.com
−9
Peers
Forward P/E 14.3 vs Intesa (10.8), UniCredit (10.7) and Banco BPM (11.9) on a bank with lower and more uncertain earnings; P/TBV 1.60 is lower, but reflects lower quality.
stockanalysis.com
−3

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−12 of −35

The price rests on Intesa's bid
The price is tied to Intesa's €30.6bn bid, which depends on the Antitrust in-depth investigation, Consob's approval and Delfin's decision (17.5% of MPS). If the bid falls, the floor under the price disappears.
forbes.it
−4
Serial acquisitions
Amid the Mediobanca integration (merger planned in Q4 2026), MPS is bidding EUR 34bn for Banco BPM (25.3bn, no premium) and Banca Generali (8.7bn), equal to about 2.8bn new shares at today's price (almost a doubling again). Requires a 2/3 majority and support from Crédit Agricole (29.3% of BPM, against) and Generali (50.2% of Banca Generali); BPM's board has unanimously rejected it.
ansa.it
−4
Lawsuit against management
The Milan prosecutor's office is investigating CEO Luigi Lovaglio together with Caltagirone and Milleri (Delfin) for market manipulation and obstructing supervision in connection with the Mediobanca takeover (alleged hidden agreement vis-à-vis Consob, ECB and IVASS); the investigation was still ongoing in 2026.
milanofinanza.it
−4

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15

Capital
CET1 16.3% in Q2 2026 vs 15.9% in March, after the consolidation of Mediobanca; among the strongest capital buffers at Italian banks.
forbes.it
+2
Dividend
Dividend 2.65bn + buybacks EUR 0.10bn (TTM) = 2.75bn, below net profit of 2.94bn; dividend yield 7.2%. The payout ratio of 90% leaves little margin, however.
stockanalysis.com
+1

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

Bank: EV, ROIC and FCF are not meaningful; valuation on P/B, P/TBV and P/E, and the payout is held against net profit. The share price (EUR 11.96) reflects Intesa's exchange offer (1.6 Intesa shares + EUR 1 in cash per MPS share, today about EUR 11.80) and is above both the offer value and analysts' average price target (11.77); it is a bid play, not a fundamental valuation. Stockanalysis' trailing figures (EPS 1.11, P/E 10.8, ROE 15%) are distorted by the Mediobanca consolidation and the share count +111%; H1 2026 annualised gives about EUR 0.74 per share (P/E about 16). Forward P/E is compared only with peers because forward history is missing. A special dividend of EUR 4bn (Generali shares + EUR 1.208 in cash) is tied to the dual bid and not included. RoTE, cost/income, credit costs and DTA have not been investigated. Q3 results 5 Nov.; general meeting on the dual bid 29 Oct.