Rankings Commodities & uranium Outokumpu
Outokumpu
66
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−8
- Multiples vs own history−7
- Quality of growth−3
Strengths
- Improved earnings+2
- Strong demand in the Americas+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 66, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 4.55 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 5.75 EUR
- Upside to median
- +26.4%
- Analysts
- 12
- Target range
- 4.00 – 7.50 EUR
- 52-week change
- +23%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 12.6
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−17 of −30
- −8MarginOperating margin −1.2% and gross margin only 4.7% (TTM) vs 14.2% gross margin and 10.7% operating margin in 2022; net loss in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Negative ROIC is not counted again.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue has fallen from EUR 9.49bn in 2022 to 5.49bn (TTM); Q2 sales rose 6% to 1,582m, but the improvement came especially from higher deliveries behind new EU trade defenses.
- −3MoatStainless steel is a commodity where the price is set by Asian imports and the nickel price; management itself points to the EU safeguard measures (from 1 July 2026) and CBAM as what supports demand in Europe.
- −3Capital allocationThe share count rose 10.6% over a year, because convertible bonds of EUR 125m (45.3m shares) were redeemed with new shares after earlier buybacks; the dividend has been halved to EUR 0.13.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−9 of −35
- −7Multiples vs own historyEV/EBITDA 16.3 vs 1.8-12.6 in 2021-2024, P/B 0.70 at the top of the 0.33-0.62 range for 2023-2025, and forward P/E 14 vs 4.4-9.9 in 2021-2023: the market is already pricing a recovery.
- −2FCF yieldP/FCF 27 and FCF yield 3.7% (TTM), and the dividend uses 69% of free cash flow.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−9 of −35
- −3Trade policy and regulationThe recovery rests on policy measures: the EU's safeguard and CBAM, an ongoing revision of the ETS for 2031–2040 and the USMCA negotiations, which affect Americas (Mexinox).
- −3Balance sheetNet debt has risen to EUR 224m from 169m a year earlier, interest cover is negative (TTM), and the Altman Z-score is only 1.61 (risk zone).
- −2Earnings qualityQ3 is guided to adjusted EBITDA at the Q2 level despite 0–10% lower deliveries, helped by inventory and metal derivative gains at current commodity prices.
- −1Ferrochrome competitionSouth African ferrochrome producers have received electricity price support, which may press Outokumpu's ferrochrome business.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Improved earningsAdjusted EBITDA rose to EUR 100m in Q2 (75m a year earlier, 65m in Q1), EBIT turned positive at 38m, and net debt/adjusted EBITDA fell to 1.1x; the EUR 100m restructuring program delivers approx. half of the savings in 2026.
- +1Strong demand in the AmericasManagement describes demand in the Americas as robust, particularly from data centers and energy.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The Helsinki listing (OUT1V). Industry set to 'Raw materials & uranium' (stainless steel and ferrochrome) like ArcelorMittal; cyclical = yes, as earnings follow nickel, chrome and steel prices. TTM figures are at trough level, so P/E multiples are hard to compare; Q2 2026 was the first quarter with positive net income in a long time (EUR 25m). The share count rose about 10% on the conversion of convertible bonds in 2025. No deduction for insider trading – not investigated. Q3 report 6 Nov. 2026.
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