Rankings Software, cloud & internet Nebius Group
Nebius Group
30
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−31
- Margin−10
- Cash flow−8
Strengths
- Order book and prepayments+3
- Pricing power+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 30, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 141.39 USD
- Median analyst target
- 302.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +113.6%
- Analysts
- 22
- Target range
- 84.00 – 410.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +8%
- P/E (trailing)
- 860.8
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−16 of −30
- −10MarginThe operating margin is −37% TTM (−30% in Q2 with an operating loss of $176m), better than −115% in 2025, but the absolute operating loss is expected to grow to about $960m in 2026. The H1 profit is solely a $781m gain on equity holdings; the adjusted EBITDA margin is about 40%. The loss is counted only here.
- −6Capital allocationCapex of $20–25bn in 2026 ($5.7bn in Q2 alone) vs expected revenue of $3.0–3.4bn. Funded with convertible notes, sales of its own shares and pre-funded warrants, and the target for contracted power has been raised to 5 GW, i.e. even more capital.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−31 of −35
- −31Multiples vs own history and peersP/S 47 TTM, about 19 on 2026 revenue and about 5 on 2027 consensus ($12.3bn); EV/EBITDA 255; P/B 6.2 vs 1.5–4.6 in 2021–25. Consensus expects negative EPS in both 2026 (−$2.24) and 2027 (−$3.49). Its own history (the Yandex era) is not comparable; the price rests entirely on 2027 growth being delivered.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−25 of −35
- −8Cash flowFCF −$5.9bn TTM, and consensus expects −$18.3bn in 2026. Operating cash flow of $5.3bn effectively consists of $5.96bn of customer prepayments (deferred revenue); without them it is negative.
- −8Customer concentrationThree customers accounted for 24%, 21% and 14% of Q2 revenue (59% in total), and one customer makes up 29% of receivables.
- −6DilutionThe share count has risen 22% in a year. In H1 $4.3bn of convertible notes were issued, $2.8bn of its own shares sold and $2.0bn of pre-funded warrants issued, and in August a further $5.75bn of convertible debt followed.
- −2DebtNet debt $2.2bn (debt $10.2bn vs cash $8.0bn) before the new August convertibles; negative interest cover (EBIT/interest −2.1).
- −1Insider tradingChairman John Boynton sold 6,364 shares for about $1.3m on 15/9, after the stock had risen 128% in a year; no insider buying found.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Order book and prepaymentsARR was $3bn at the end of June (+598%), and guidance is $7–9bn by year-end. In Q2 four deals averaging over $1bn were closed, where prepayments cover 50–60% of capex; on top come the large contracts with Microsoft and Meta.
- +2Pricing powerRaising on-demand prices for GPU, CPU and memory by 17–21% from 1/10 because of tight demand.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Nebius burns cash: FCF is expected at −$18bn in 2026, and the positive operating cash flow is customer prepayments. Three customers accounted for 59% of Q2 revenue. The share count has risen 22%, and billions of convertible loans have been issued. The TTM profit is due to a $781m investment gain, and negative EPS is expected in both 2026 and 2027. Short interest is 20% of free float.
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