Rankings Commodities & uranium Ferrexpo
Ferrexpo
30
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Ukrainian state vs Zhevago and the company−20
- Multiples vs own history−12
- Margin−10
Strengths
- Net cash+2
- Anchor investor+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 2.76 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 2,860m
- Cash runway
- 18 months
- Cash / debt
- 90.0 / 18.0m GBX
- Dilution, 12 months
- +76%
Bull case
Ceasefire in Ukraine, VAT refunds resume, and production returns to 6–10m tonnes (2021: 11m tonnes, USD 2.5bn revenue, EBITDA over 1bn). Just 6m tonnes at USD 120/t with a 30% EBITDA margin gives approx. USD 215m EBITDA; at 4x EV/EBITDA equity becomes approx. USD 0.9bn – approx. 2–2.5x the current market cap. 3–10x requires both peace and the state dropping the cases against FPM.
Bear case
The state wins: FPM is declared bankrupt or nationalised (49.5% has already been transferred to ARMA), or the damages claim of USD 3.5bn – ten times the market cap – is maintained. Then the share price is close to zero. Even without that, continued power attacks and missing VAT could force a new issue below 16.5 pence.
Catalysts
- 12 Oct 2026Ukraine's supreme court is hearing the guarantee case (sureties) against the groupbinary investegate.co.uk
- Ongoing 2026-2027Resumption of VAT refunds (102 m USD receivable) and return of more pellet lines; a ceasefire in Ukraine would be the big gradual drivergradual investegate.co.uk
- Unresolved (appeal pending)Bankruptcy petition against the operating company FPM and the state's claim to 49.5% of FPM via ARMA - decides whether shareholders keep the assetbinary investegate.co.uk
Risk of going to zerohigh – the operating company is under a bankruptcy petition and partial state takeover, the damages claim exceeds the market cap many times over, and the board itself states material going concern uncertainty.
Next financingCash of USD 30m at 30/6-2026; the issue of approx. USD 100m (completed 22/9) and the loan of USD 15m give an estimated pro forma amount of approx. USD 120m (approx. GBP 90m). Free cash flow was −USD 24m in H1 at low production; on restart with working capital and capex approx. GBP 15m per quarter is estimated, giving approx. 18 months of runway – the same horizon as the board's going concern assessment (18 months, with material uncertainty). No debt conversion, but if the VAT refunds fail to arrive, or the state wins the FPM cases, new emergency issues or loss of the operating company could follow.
Warrants & convertiblesNo known warrants or convertibles. New issue 22/9-2026: 448.8m shares at 16.5 pence (less than half the current price). Unsecured loan of USD 15m from Fevamotinico (drawn 9/9-2026).
Insiders, last 12 monthsFevamotinico (Zhevago-related main shareholder) subscribed for 179.5 m shares at 16.5 pence (about 30 m GBP) in September 2026 and provided a loan of 15 m USD. Verevskyi bought 224.4 m shares at 16.5 pence. No insider sales found.
Largest ownersFevamotinico S.a.r.l. (Zhevago-related) about 45% after the issue (own estimate); Andriy Verevskyi about 21.4%; BlackRock over 5%; free float about 30%.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: partial – approx. GBP 329m, but large for a penny stock. (2) Hot theme: yes – rebuilding of Ukraine and green steel (DR pellets). (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – supreme court 12/10 and the FPM cases, but they are mostly risks. (4) Major partner: partial – Verevskyi (Kernel) and BlackRock have come in. (5) Funding 2+ years: no – approx. 18 months, and the issue diluted by 76%. (6) Price near the bottom: partial – −42% in a year and −88% since 2021, but the price has already doubled from the issue price.
Why this asymmetryA peace deal could give a large upside, and cash has now been replenished, but the legal conflict with the Ukrainian state could take the asset itself from shareholders. The price is already about 92% above the issue price, so much of the recovery has been paid for in advance.
How the score is built
From 100 to 30, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 31.50 GBX
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −45%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−24 of −30
- −10MarginUnderlying EBITDA USD −4m in H1 2026, operating margin −9% TTM and net margin −28% in 2025 (incl. a writedown of USD 154m). Gross margin has fallen from 71% (2021) to 36–38% due to high power and logistics costs during the war.
- −6Quality of growthRevenue fell 57% in H1 2026 to USD 196m, and production fell 54% to 1.56m tonnes. Revenue has shrunk from USD 2.5bn (2021) to 531m TTM - production is reduced to one pellet line.
- −3MoatPremium pellets and DR pellets for green steel production are a good product, but the company has one asset (Poltava region) in a war-torn country with no control over electricity, logistics and VAT refunds. ROIC is −8% and has been falling since 57% in 2021.
- −5Capital allocation and dilutionLarge dividends in 2021–2022 (USD 0.46 and 0.13 per share), after which the company had to do an emergency issue in September 2026: 448.8m new shares at 16.5 pence (about USD 100m) – a dilution of 76% for existing shareholders.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−12 of −35
- −12Multiples vs own historyP/B 0.67 and P/S 0.81 resemble the history (0.6–1.3 and 0.75–1.04), but EBITDA and FCF are negative, so no earnings multiple exists. The price (31.68 pence) is almost double the price the institutions and Verevskyi paid three weeks earlier (16.5 pence) – the market is paying a large premium for an uncertain recovery.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−32 of −35
- −20Ukrainian state vs Zhevago and the companyMain shareholder Zhevago is sanctioned (Feb. 2025); 49.5% of the ownership of the operating company FPM has been transferred to the state agency ARMA with a threat of nationalisation, bankruptcy proceedings have been opened against FPM (24/2-2026, appealed), a damages claim of UAH 157bn (about USD 3.5bn) for alleged unlawful extraction and a guarantee case at the supreme court 12/10-2026.
- −6Going concern and VAT refundThe board writes that material uncertainties outside management's control 'may cast significant doubt' on the going concern. Ukraine has withheld VAT refunds since March 2025 (USD 102m gross, 87m rejected), which forced production down and led to a production stop in August 2026 before the issue.
- −6War and energyRussian attacks on the Ukrainian power grid led to production stoppages in January 2026 and power prices of up to USD 233/MWh in February; operations and exports depend on power supply and ports/railways during the war.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Net cashNo interest-bearing debt at 30/6-2026 (only leasing of USD 10m), net cash of USD 21m before the offering of approx. USD 100m.
- +2Anchor investorAndriy Verevskyi (founder of Kernel) invested USD 50m and gets 21.4% of the company; Fevamotinico subscribed 179.5m shares, and BlackRock has crossed 5%.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Europe). Price in pence (GBX); accounts in USD, penny amounts converted to GBP millions (about 1.34 USD/GBP). Market cap calculated myself: about 1,037m shares (588.6m + 448.8m new on 22/9-2026) × 31.68 pence = about GBP 329m (about DKK 2.9bn). The price is about 92% above the issue price of 16.5 pence from September 2026. Pro forma cash after the issue is my own estimate (USD 30m at 30/6 + about 95m net from the issue − July–September burn); the company has not published a figure. The Ukrainian legal picture (FPM bankruptcy petition, the state's claim to 49.5% of the subsidiary, damages claim of about USD 3.5bn) is unresolved and cannot be assessed precisely. Stockanalysis' forecast page does not exist (no analyst coverage).
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