Rankings Transport & logistics Norse Atlantic
Norse Atlantic
20
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Debt and equity−12
- Margin−10
- Multiples vs own history−8
Strengths
- Strong owners+2
- Record unit revenue+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 0.21 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 581m
- Cash runway
- 7 months
- Cash / debt
- 250.0 / 7,890.0m NOK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +1,716%
Bull case
The strategic review ends with a bid from a larger player (e.g. an airline or lessor that wants the 787 fleet and Gatwick slots), the fuel price falls back, and the ACMI/Thailand routes fill the planes this winter. A bid of NOK 0.90–1.00 per share (NOK 2.7–3.0bn for the equity, EV about NOK 10bn) would give 3x; that requires a buyer to value the fleet, slots and the ACMI business far above the current price, which is below the issue price of NOK 0.50.
Bear case
Negative equity, NOK 7.9bn in debt (primarily leasing), only approx. USD 25m in free cash and an expensive loan maturing in May 2027. If the review does not produce a bid, and the winter is weak, Norse must raise money again far below NOK 0.30 or be restructured – the share could fall 80–100%.
Catalysts
- 1 Nov 2026The ACMI contract with IndiGo is ending; the last aircraft are returning and must be deployed on own routes (including Europe–Thailand)gradual airwaysmag.com
- 25 Nov 2026Q3 2026 report (summer quarter): cash, fuel costs and status of the strategic reviewgradual stockanalysis.com
- before the end of 2026Completion of the strategic review with J.P. Morgan (sale, merger or partnership); several parties have signed confidentiality agreementsbinary aviationnews.eu
- May 2027Maturity of the secured facility of 52 m USD (15% interest)binary aviationnews.eu
Risk of going to zerohigh – negative equity after an issue of USD 110m, under half a year's burn in cash, no operating profit in any year and an industry where similar companies have gone bankrupt.
Next financingAdjusted cash approx. USD 25m (NOK 250m) after the bridge loan in July plus a secured facility of USD 52m at 15% interest, falling due in May 2027. With Q2 spending (−USD 32.5m FCF) that gives approx. 7 months of runway. The winter half-year is weak for transatlantic traffic, so a sale/merger (strategic review to be completed before the end of 2026) or new capital is required by around May 2027 at the latest.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles found in 2026. The USD 30m convertible bond from 2025 is not resolved (conversion or redemption). The rights issue at NOK 0.50 in June 2026 raised the share count from 163 to 2,952m; the share price is now below the issue price, so another issue will come at an even lower price.
Insiders, last 12 monthsJune 2026: founder Bjørn Tore Larsen (B T Larsen & Co) subscribed for USD 30m and Arne Blystad for USD 15m in the rights issue at NOK 0.50. No sales found (Newsweb not systematically reviewed).
Largest ownersB T Larsen & Co (Bjørn Tore Larsen) about 28% (8/7-2026); Scorpio Holding (the Lauro family) and Arne Blystad among the largest; Geveran Trading (John Fredriksen) subscribed USD 25m in the issue. Institutions only about 1.5%.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: partial – DKK 581m, but EV is approx. NOK 8bn due to leasing. (2) Hot theme: no – low-cost long-haul is out of fashion. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – strategic review to be completed by the end of 2026. (4) Major partner: partial – Fredriksen/Geveran and Scorpio are owners, but no industrial partner has committed. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – approx. 7 months including the 15% loan. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −93% in a year and below the issue price.
Why this asymmetryThere is a real binary catalyst (sale/merger before the turn of the year) and strong owners who have just put money in, but the value lies with the lessors and lenders: a buyer will typically pay little for the equity in an airline with negative equity. No secure financing beyond May 2027 and a large risk of a new issue far below the share price.
How the score is built
From 100 to 20, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.21 NOK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −97%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−28 of −30
- −10MarginOperating margin −4.3% and profit margin −18.7% (TTM); Q2 2026 gave operating margin −20.7% and a net loss of USD 70.6m. The company has not had a single year of operating profit since its start in 2021 (operating margin −2.7% in 2025, −16.5% in 2024).
- −6Quality of growthRevenue fell 35% in Q2 2026 (USD 132m) after a 64% reduction of planned flying; in August Norse flew more contract/charter flights (253) than own scheduled flights (238). Growth is replaced by low-margin ACMI leasing, and the ACMI contract with IndiGo ends 1/11-2026.
- −6MoatLow-cost long-haul across the Atlantic has no documented moat (cf. Norwegian Long Haul, WOW, Primera). Norse is pulling New York from the winter program 2026/27 and is left with only Gatwick-Orlando as a route to the US; fuel is 1.9x more expensive than the year before with no ability to pass it on.
- −6Capital allocationRepeated emergency issues (2021, 2023, 2025 and 2026) and a 1:4 reverse split in 2023; the share count has gone from 19m (2021) to 2,952m. Equity is still negative (−USD 194m) after the USD 110m issue, and ROIC is −3.2%.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−16 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own historyP/S 0.12 looks cheap, but EV is NOK 8.1bn vs a market value of 0.87bn – EV/sales 1.12 vs 1.25–2.53 in 2023–2025, and EV/EBITDA 18.7 on a negative operating result. P/B is negative (−0.45). The stock's low price reflects the debt, not a discount.
- −8FCF yieldFCF yield -23% (TTM FCF NOK -202m), and Q2 2026 alone gave USD -32.5m in free cash flow. No prospect of positive FCF when guidance for 2026 (profit of USD 20-40m) has been withdrawn.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−33 of −35
- −12Debt and equityTotal debt USD 796m (of which 745m leasing), negative equity of USD −194m, current ratio 0.51 and Altman Z −0.05. A new secured facility of USD 52m costs 15% fixed interest and matures in May 2027 – another refinancing awaits.
- −8DilutionRights issue of 110 m USD at 0.50 NOK per share in April–June 2026, when the stock traded at 3.86 NOK; the number of shares rose about 18 times (163 → 2,952 m), and the share price has since fallen to 0.31 NOK – below the issue price.
- −6LiquidityFree cash of 67 m USD at the end of Q2, but only about 25 m USD after repayment of a 41.7 m USD bridge loan in July – less than a single bad quarter's burn.
- −4Fuel and geopoliticsFuel prices rose sharply after the Iran conflict; fuel cost USD 21m extra in Q2, and the company withdrew its profit guidance for 2026. No documented hedging that protects against a new rise.
- −3Customer attritionACMI/charter delivered USD 45m in Q2 (34% of revenue), but the big wet-lease contract with IndiGo is ending, and the last aircraft return by 1/11-2026 at the latest – they must be filled with own routes in the middle of low season.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Strong ownersThe issue was underwritten by the founder Bjørn Tore Larsen (USD 30m), Arne Blystad (USD 15m) and John Fredriksen's Geveran (USD 25m) – experienced owners who put in new money at the same price as the small shareholders.
- +1Record unit revenueRecord TRASK (+24% year on year), load factor 97% and revenue per passenger of USD 447 vs USD 372 a year earlier in Q2 2026 – demand on the remaining routes is strong.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under 3 kr). Accounts in USD, price in NOK; penny amounts are converted to NOK at approx. 10 NOK/USD (stockanalysis' NOK figures). The share count rose from 163 to 2,952m after the rights issue in June 2026 at 0.50 NOK, so stockanalysis' 'Shares Change +18%' (weighted average) greatly understates the dilution. No stockanalysis forecast page (404). The debt of approx. 7.9bn NOK is primarily lease liabilities on 787 aircraft. It is not clarified whether the new loan facility of 52m USD has been drawn; it is included in runway. Insider trades have not been checked systematically on Newsweb beyond the rights issue subscriptions. Q3 figures (summer season) come on 25/11-2026.
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