Rankings Transport & logistics NTG
NTG
57
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−4
- Multiples vs own history−4
- ROIC−3
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Insider ownership+1
- Deleveraging+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 57, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 333.00 DKK
- Median analyst target
- 335.00 DKK
- Upside to median
- +0.6%
- Analysts
- 7
- Target range
- 310.00 – 400.00 DKK
- 52-week change
- +81%
- P/E (trailing)
- 27.0
- Forward P/E
- 18.3
- PEG
- 3.77
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−14 of −30
- −4MarginThe operating margin has fallen from 7.4–7.5% in 2021–2023 to 5.6% (2024), 5.2% (2025) and 5.3% TTM; the net margin is 2.2% vs 4.5–4.8%. The gross margin fell in Q2 to 21.5% from 23.1%.
- −3ROICROIC has fallen from 39% (2021) and 24% (2023) to 15.9% (2024) and 10.8% TTM after the acquisitions; still above a WACC of 7.9%, but ROE has halved to 19.6%.
- −3Quality of growthEPS is DKK 12.3 TTM vs 21.4 in 2022 and 17.2 in 2023 despite higher revenue; growth comes from acquisitions (DTK) and higher freight rates. In Air & Ocean revenue rose 17.4% in Q2, while gross profit was unchanged (gross margin 20.7% vs 24.3%).
- −2MoatAn asset-light freight forwarder in a fragmented market with low switching costs and big competitors (DSV/Schenker, DHL, DB, Kuehne+Nagel); a gross margin of about 22% and EBIT margin of about 5% show limited pricing power.
- −2Capital allocationAcquisitions of DKK 874m in 2025 (including DTK at DKK 620m debt-free) were funded with DKK 949m of new debt; the share count rose 2.6% in a year, and tangible equity is negative (−DKK 1.15bn).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own historyThe trailing P/E of 22.8 is the highest since 2021 (10.8–19.3 in 2022–2025), and the forward P/E of 15.8 is at the top of 12.7–16.4; P/B 3.5 vs 2.6 at the start of the year after +46% in a year.
- −3FCF yield after leasesThe 8.6% FCF yield is before lease payments of DKK 358m; FCF after leases is only DKK 165m TTM (223m in 2025), about 2.7% of the DKK 6.06bn market value.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−9 of −35
- −3DebtTotal debt incl. leases DKK 2.76bn vs equity of 1.73bn (debt/equity 1.6); debt/FCF 5.3 and Altman Z-score 2.79. Net debt excl. leases DKK 1,132m (2.25x).
- −3Freight rates and macroQ2 growth was helped by higher freight rates, but management expects gradually falling rates, overcapacity in the container market and a continued weak European economy.
- −2ExecutionSimultaneous integration of DTK, roll-out of a new transport management system (TMS) in Germany and restructuring of Air & Ocean; special items for 2026 raised to DKK 30–35m.
- −1LiquidityMarket value only DKK 6.1bn and about 34,000 shares traded a day (about DKK 10m); only seven analysts cover the stock.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+4 of +15
- +2Raised guidanceAdjusted EBIT guidance for 2026 narrowed upwards to DKK 625–650m (low end +25m) after Q2 with adjusted EBIT +23.4% and organic growth of 14.8%.
- +1Insider ownershipInsiders own 14.8% of the shares, and local managers co-own the subsidiaries through the 'Ring-the-Bell' model.
- +1DeleveragingLeverage fell to 2.25x from 3.04x, and FCF was DKK 306m in Q2 vs −219m a year earlier.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Freight forwarder (Road & Logistics about 80% of revenue, Air & Ocean the rest). stockanalysis' EBITDA (665m) and EV/EBITDA are distorted because lease depreciation is not fully included; EV/EBITDA is therefore not used in T2. Net interest-bearing debt excluding leases is DKK 1,132m (2.25x) by the company's definition, 2.76bn including leases. Capital markets day 18/11 with new targets; Q3 comes 9/11. Not marked cyclical: road transport dominates, but Q2 growth was partly freight-rate driven.
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