Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Ovzon
Ovzon
57
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Customer concentration−8
- Multiples vs own history and peers−6
- Quality of growth−5
Strengths
- Debt reduction and cash flow+2
- Broader NATO customer base+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 57, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 38.08 SEK
- Median analyst target
- 54.00 SEK
- Upside to median
- +41.8%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 53.00 – 55.00 SEK
- 52-week change
- +20%
- P/E (trailing)
- 17.4
- Forward P/E
- 19.4
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−17 of −30
- −2MarginGross margin 52% and operating margin 26% TTM (operating profit 256m SEK of 993m), up from negative margins before 2025. A strong turnaround, but the margin rests on a few large contracts.
- −3ROICROIC of 12.7% TTM, roughly in line with WACC (13.1%) after many years of negative returns on a satellite investment of more than SEK 2bn.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue rose 114% TTM and 48% in Q2, but growth comes from one customer (FMV) and a temporary wave of terminal deliveries. Order intake was only SEK 76m in Q2, and the order book fell from over 800 to 668m.
- −5MoatOnly one own GEO satellite (Ovzon 3, about 50% utilised) against Starlink/Starshield, Eutelsat OneWeb and Viasat. The niche is secure, mobile communications with own terminals for defence; the niche is real but small and exposed to LEO competition.
- −2Capital allocationThe satellite project was delayed for years and required share issues (share count rose from 51m to 112m in 2023); debt is now being reduced (net debt from SEK 587m to SEK 116m in a year).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own history and peersTrailing P/E of 15.9 and forward P/E of 15.8, EV/EBIT of 14.8 and EV/EBITDA of 9.0 versus EV/EBIT of 36 and EV/EBITDA of 17.7 at the end of 2025. Cheaper against history, but EV/EBITDA of 9 is higher than for the large satellite operators, and P/FCF of 7.4 is distorted by prepayments.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−21 of −35
- −8Customer concentrationApprox. 92% of TTM revenue (909 of 985m SEK) comes from Sweden, primarily the FMV agreement from May 2025 worth 1.04bn SEK. A lack of FMV order flow in 2027 would hit revenue hard.
- −5Weak order intake and lost contractOrder intake has been weak since December 2025 ('longer purchasing cycles'), and the SSC contract was not renewed. The order book has fallen to SEK 668m. The share price is down about 30% from the May-June peak.
- −4Single-satellite riskThe entire capacity business rests on Ovzon 3; a failure in orbit or a shorter lifetime than planned would hit SATCOM revenue (approx. 70% of sales).
- −4Capex needs for the next satelliteABG expects details of a possible new satellite project before year-end. A new GEO project typically costs billions and may require new debt or an equity issue, as in 2023.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Debt reduction and cash flowNet debt fell from SEK 587m to 116m in a year, and FCF was 76m in Q2 2026 (-93 a year earlier).
- +2Broader NATO customer baseRenewal of SEK 74m from a European NATO customer, an order of 40m from a new NATO customer (7/7/2026), and the US Department of Defense has returned as a customer.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny deep dive (price DKK 21.53, above DKK 3). Swedish provider of mobile satellite communications (SATCOM-as-a-Service) to defense and authorities via its own GEO satellite Ovzon 3 and its own terminals. A price of SEK 32.60 and 112.29m shares give a market cap of about SEK 3,661m (DKK 2,418m); Nordnet showed DKK 2,511m. Stockanalysis shows Q2 revenue of SEK 247m, while the company reports 277m (different delineation of other income). Free cash flow of 494m TTM is inflated by prepayments and a decline in receivables of 266m (FMV payment plans) and is not a normal level. About 92% of revenue comes from Sweden (FMV/Försvarsmakten). The term of the FMV framework agreement has not been found. Operating company with no burn, so runway is null. Short data not examined.
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