Rankings Pharma & medtech Nykode
Nykode
48
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Quality of growth−7
- Multiples vs own history−5
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Insider buying+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 2.38 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 984m
- Cash runway
- 28 months
- Cash / debt
- 715.0 / 18.0m NOK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +20%
Bull case
Positive interim data in Abili-T in 2027 trigger a licence agreement for abi-suva (the company estimates USD 2.3bn in sales in 2034) and a partner for VB10.NEO. Market cap could go from NOK 1.35bn to NOK 4–8bn – the 2022–23 level – i.e. 3–6x. Won tax case adds NOK 325m on top (about NOK 0.8 per share).
Bear case
Weak interim data in 2027: value falls towards net cash, which by then is about NOK 0.4bn (about NOK 1 per share, −70%). The tax case is finally lost, and phase 3 requires a new, expensive share issue.
Catalysts
- 25 Nov 2026Q3 report: update on recruitment in Abili-T and booking of the lost tax casegradual stockanalysis.com
- Q4 2026Possible repair issue at NOK 4.40 for shareholders who did not receive an allocationgradual inderes.fi
- H1 2027Selection of first lead programme on the tolerance platformgradual inderes.fi
- 2027First interim analysis in the randomised phase 2 Abili-T (abi-suva, HPV16+ head and neck cancer) at about 1/3 of patientsbinary investing.com
- 2027Reopening at the Tax Appeals Board or a lawsuit over NOK 325mbinary nettavisen.no
Risk of going to zerolow – no debt and about 2 years of cash after the share issue; the risk is a large fall (−60–70%), not zero
Next financingCash NOK 444m at 30/6/2026 plus about NOK 270m net from the August share issue. Burn about USD 6.5–9m per quarter and rising with phase 3 preparations. Without the tax refund the money lasts to about the end of 2028; with a refund of NOK 325m 'well into 2029'. New capital or a partner payment will probably have to be in place after the Abili-T interim data in 2027, before phase 3.
Warrants & convertiblesNo warrants or convertibles found in the share issue; an employee share option programme (number not examined). A possible repair issue at NOK 4.40 requires a general meeting and a prospectus.
Insiders, last 12 monthsCEO Michael Engsig bought 46,356 shares at NOK 2.16 (about NOK 0.1m) on 24/11/2025. Rasmussengruppen (board) subscribed pro rata for about 11% of the August 2026 issue (about NOK 31m); Andenæsgruppen accepted a half allocation. No insider sales found.
Largest ownersBefore the issue: Jan Haudemann-Andersen/the Datum sphere about 12.6% (plus Datum Opportunity 8.0% and Datum Invest 3.9%), Capital Research about 10%, Rasmussengruppen about 9.2%
Circio check(1) Small market value: partly – about DKK 1bn, far above Circio's NOK 66m before the rise. (2) Hot theme: partly – cancer vaccines/neoantigens draw interest, but not hype. (3) Upcoming data: yes – Abili-T interim in 2027. (4) Large partner: no – Genentech has left, and Regeneron gives almost nothing. (5) Funding for 2+ years: yes, roughly – the cash lasts to about the end of 2028. (6) Price near the bottom: no – +118% in a year and only briefly above the 4.40 issue price.
Why this asymmetryThe cash covers about half the market value and the zero risk is low, but the price has already doubled without data, the partner is gone, and the binary interim analysis comes in 2027 at the earliest. Reasonable, not large asymmetry.
How the score is built
From 100 to 48, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 2.87 NOK
- Median analyst target
- 6.25 NOK
- Upside to median
- +117.8%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 5.50 – 7.00 NOK
- 52-week change
- +22%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−23 of −30
- −10MarginRevenue USD 0.46m (TTM) vs operating loss USD 27.7m; net loss USD 7.2m in Q2 2026 vs a profit of USD 0.9m a year earlier.
- −7Quality of growthThe lead programme abi-suva (HPV16+ head and neck cancer) only started recruiting for the phase 2 trial Abili-T in May 2026; the first interim analysis comes in 2027. No products close to market.
- −3MoatPatented DNA vaccine platform (VB10.NEO protected to 2039 in the US), but no clinically proven advantage over competing cancer vaccines yet.
- −3Capital allocationThe cash has fallen from USD 228m (2021) to USD 45m (June 2026); in 2025 about NOK 1 per share was paid out as an extraordinary dividend, and a year later the company had to raise NOK 286m of new equity.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−9 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own historyEV has risen from NOK 178m (end of 2025) and negative in 2024 to about NOK 0.64bn pro forma; P/B 1.46 vs 0.64–0.85 in 2024–25. The share price has more than doubled without new clinical data.
- −4PeersMarket cap of about NOK 1.35bn for a phase 2 programme with no partner and no data from the randomised trial – no discount against Nordic cancer vaccine peers.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−18 of −35
- −4DilutionDirected issue of 65m new shares at NOK 4.40 in August 2026 (+19.9% more shares); a repair issue at the same price may come on top.
- −5Tax caseOn 28/9/2026 the Skatteklagenemnda went against the secretariat's recommendation and rejected Nykode's claim of NOK 325m (about 24% of market cap), which was paid in 2023 and booked as a receivable. The company will ask for reopening and otherwise go to the courts; the share price fell about 8%.
- −4Partners and customer behaviourGenentech terminated the VB10.NEO collaboration, and the company laid off staff; revenue fell 95% in 2025, and Regeneron income is minimal.
- −3ExecutionThe value rests almost solely on one randomised phase 2 trial; the company is already planning the move to phase 3 before data are available.
- −2Share price riskShare price is up about 118% over 52 weeks (from NOK 1.99 at end-2024) and swings sharply on news (−8% on the tax case).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Net cashNo real debt; cash of USD 44.8m at 30/6 plus about NOK 286m gross from the share issue gives about NOK 0.7bn – about half the market value.
- +1Insider buyingCEO Michael Engsig bought 46,356 shares at NOK 2.16 in November 2025, and Rasmussengruppen (on the board) subscribed for its pro rata share of about 11% in the issue.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Clinical biotech (phase 2) without product revenue; accounts in USD (stockanalysis converts to NOK); stockanalysis shows 326.6m shares, but after the August 2026 share issue there are 391.5m (market value about NOK 1.35bn); the NOK 325m tax receivable was lost at the Tax Appeals Board but is not yet final; only 2 analysts
Also in Pharma & medtech
The highest scores in the same industry.
