Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants Oatly

Oatly

Food, drinks & restaurants · United StatesRank 575 of 829Prices 2 Nov 2026Model 1.4

15070100

The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.

Biggest deductions

Refinancing wall 2028−12
Margin−8
Capital allocation−8

Strengths

Raised guidance+3
Margin improvement+2

How the score is built

From 100 to 48, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

48Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 7.71 USD
Median analyst target: 12.50 USD
Upside to median: +62.1%
Analysts: 5
Target range: 9.00 – 27.00 USD
52-week change: −51%
P/E (trailing): n/a
Forward P/E: n/a
PEG: n/a

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−22 of −30

Margin
Gross margin 33.9% in Q2 2026, but adjusted EBITDA only USD 0.4m in the quarter, operating margin −5.3% TTM and net loss −128m TTM (−31m in Q2); loss-making every year since the IPO.
sec.gov
−8
Quality of growth
Revenue +15.2% in Q2 (12.7% at constant currencies), volume +11.2%; Europe & International +21%, but North America only +5.9% and China +5.6% at constant currencies. Growth in 2024-2025 was only about 5% a year.
sec.gov
−2
Capital allocation
Listed in 2021 at USD 17 per ADS (equivalent to USD 340 after the ratio change) – the share price is −97%; factories in Ogden and Dallas-Fort Worth were built and sold again in 2023, and operations were financed with expensive 9.25% convertibles and a term loan that later had to be refinanced with STIBOR+7% bonds.
sec.gov
−8
Moat
Strong brand in barista/foodservice in Europe, but oat drink is easy to copy: private label, Alpro (Danone), Califia and Minor Figures press the price, and North America contributes only 0.7m in adjusted EBITDA on 66.9m in revenue.
sec.gov
−4

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−9 of −35

Multiples vs own history
EV/Sales 0.91 vs 0.94 in 2024-2025 and 1.18 in 2023 - on par with recent years; P/B cannot be calculated because equity is negative (-23.5m).
stockanalysis.com
−2
Peers and EBITDA multiple
EV of USD 841m corresponds to about 28x guidance EBITDA for 2026 (25-35m) vs SunOpta 13x; net debt of 504m is 1.5x market cap, and free cash flow is negative (-22m TTM).
stockanalysis.com
−7

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−16 of −35

Refinancing wall 2028
Convertible notes with USD 490.9m payable at maturity 14/9-2028 (9.25% PIK) and Nordic bonds of SEK 1,719m (USD 176.9m) to be redeemed by 14/6-2028 at the latest, vs cash of 44.6m and a market cap of 337m; the SSRCF facility has covenants for minimum EBITDA and liquidity. A solution probably requires dilution or an exchange.
sec.gov
−12
Greater China
Strategic review of the loss-making Chinese segment (−1.5m in adjusted EBITDA in Q2) since 2025, possible carve-out; no timetable and no certainty of a transaction.
sec.gov
−2
Ownership structure and liquidity
Nativus (China Resources), Verlinvest and Blackstone own the majority and bought 200.1m of the Swedish convertibles; free float only approx. 12m ADS and approx. USD 0.6m in daily turnover.
sec.gov
−2

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15

Raised guidance
Growth guidance for 2026 raised from +3–5% to +8–10% at constant currency; adjusted EBITDA guidance of 25–35m maintained.
sec.gov
+3
Margin improvement
The gross margin rose 143 bp to 33.9%, and adjusted EBITDA turned from −3.6 to +0.4m; Europe & International delivered 25.0m in adjusted EBITDA in the quarter.
sec.gov
+2

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

Price USD 10.55 per ADS (2/10-2026); 1 ADS = 20 ordinary shares (changed February 2025). About 31.9m ADS equivalents (about 638m shares) give a market cap of about USD 337m (about DKK 2,216m); Nordnet shows DKK 2,487m (the price has fallen from a 50-day average of 13.50). Swedish company (Oatly Group AB, Malmö), IFRS accounts, foreign private issuer filing 6-K. No going concern doubt in the H1 report; no ATM program; the ADS is well above USD 1. Convertibles: 9.25% PIK notes with USD 490.9m payable at maturity 14/9-2028 (conversion USD 27.20-28.20 per ADS, far out of the money), and the Nordic bonds (SEK 1,719m) must be redeemed by 14/6-2028 at the latest if the convertibles are not dealt with by 14/3-2028. Analyst price target USD 18.70 (+77%, 5 analysts, median 14). Low liquidity: about 60,000 ADS per day and free float of about 12m ADS.