Rankings Construction & materials OHLA
OHLA
59
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Cross-default after the Qatar judgment−9
- Margin−8
- Valuation vs history and peers−6
Strengths
- Order book+2
- Creditor support+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 2.62 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 3,645m
- Cash runway
- 99 months
- Cash / debt
- 711.0 / 362.0m EUR
- Dilution, 12 months
- +50%
Bull case
The construction margin holds at 7%+, revenue grows 6% a year to about EUR 3.9bn, and refinancing lowers the interest rate from about 9.75% to 6%. Net income could then reach EUR 70–90m; at P/E 10 the equity value is EUR 0.7–0.9bn, i.e. about 1.5–1.8x today's 0.49bn. Analyst price targets of EUR 0.59–0.70 (+70–100%) point the same way. A 3–10x requires unrealistically high margins for a contractor.
Bear case
New arbitration losses (Qatar, USA and others) and a loss-making major project eat the cash, bank guarantees tighten, and the bonds go into default again. Then a new recapitalization at EUR 0.10-0.20 with heavy dilution (-50-70% for shareholders) is needed. Debt and guarantees of over EUR 600m put shareholders last in line.
Catalysts
- 29 Sep 2026Bondholder meeting on permanent dispensation for cross-default after the Qatar ruling - over 75% support reported; formal result and the banks' waiver must be confirmedbinary bolsamania.com
- Nov 2026Q3 2026 report: whether the margin improvement in construction (7.3% EBITDA margin) holds, and whether the cash flow continuesgradual ohla-group.com
- 2026-2027Refinancing of the 9.5–9.75% bonds at a lower rate (planned new bond) – will lift net income markedlygradual eleconomista.es
Risk of going to zeromedium – revenue of EUR 3.5bn, positive FCF and a large order book make a total loss unlikely in the short term, but the company has been through a recapitalisation and now faces cross-default and a B- rating; another share issue at a low price is realistic.
Next financingNo acute capital raise: FCF was +EUR 128m TTM and Q2 2026 gave EUR 96m of cash flow. But liquidity of 711m (with recourse) includes customer advances and project funds, and the bonds require a permanent waiver after the Qatar ruling (vote 29/9-2026, over 75% support according to the press). The 2024–25 recapitalisation meant three issues at EUR 0.25–0.26 (+50% shares) and extension of the bonds to 2029 with partial amortisation. New losses in litigation (Qatar 26.4m, USA c. 38.5m) or a weaker working capital trajectory could trigger another issue; no reverse split announced.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles or warrants found; employee share scheme from the 2025 issue. Bonds (c. EUR 326m, maturing 2029) are not convertible.
Insiders, last 12 monthsThe Amodio brothers subscribed for about EUR 26m in the 2025 issue; no market purchases or sales found in 2026. The main shareholders are themselves asking for a deferral of their own bond debt.
Largest ownersNot verified in CNMV. The Amodio brothers (largest, c. a quarter after the issues), Inmobiliaria Coapa Larca (Andrés Holzer), formerly Excelsior Times (José Elías). Insiders 3.1% and institutions 9.6% according to stockanalysis.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: no – approx. DKK 3.6bn. (2) Hot theme: no – contractor. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – waiver and refinancing, but no binary data. (4) Major partner: no. (5) Funding for 2+ years: partial – positive FCF and bonds to 2029, but cross-default and a B rating. (6) Price near the bottom: partial – −21% in a year and below the 200-day average, but above the issue price of EUR 0.25–0.26.
Why this asymmetryCheap on EV/EBITDA and with a price target 70–100% above the price, but the upside is realistically 1.5–2x, not 3–10x, and it requires that the margin improvement holds in a low-margin industry. The downside is a new recapitalisation if the lawsuits go wrong. No Circio profile.
How the score is built
From 100 to 59, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.36 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 0.60 EUR
- Upside to median
- +66.5%
- Analysts
- 3
- Target range
- 0.59 – 0.70 EUR
- 52-week change
- −21%
- P/E (trailing)
- 19.0
- Forward P/E
- 12.9
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−18 of −30
- −8MarginEBIT margin only 4.0% and net margin 0.9% TTM; net result has ranged between −97 and +EUR 6m every year 2021–2025 (2025: 1.7m), and H1 2026 gave only EUR 0.5m reported despite 'recurring' 27m.
- −2ROIC and return on equityROE 7.2% is below WACC of 7.75%; stockanalysis' ROIC of 13.9% is based on a small invested capital after deduction of customer prepayments and says little about the return to shareholders.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue fell 5.4% in 2025 and is -2.9% TTM (EUR 3.51bn); H1 2026 only +3.4%. The Industrial segment has fallen from 295 to EUR 113m. The improvement is margin and costs, not growth, and 'recurring' figures differ markedly from the reported ones.
- −5MoatClassic contractor with large fixed-price projects (hospitals, roads, railways) competing with larger Spanish and international peers; the history is full of loss-making contracts (Qatar, Mexico, Chile) and arbitration cases. No pricing power.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35
- −6Valuation vs history and peersTrailing P/E 23.6 for a company with 0.9% net margin; forward P/E 12.7 is based on one analyst's estimate. EV/EBITDA 2.1 looks cheap, but the cash is largely customer advances and JV funds – without the cash, EV is approx. EUR 1.03bn and EV/EBITDA approx. 5.5, on par with better-run Spanish contractors. P/B 0.76 sits mid the 2021–25 range of 0.48–0.97.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−28 of −35
- −9Cross-default after the Qatar judgmentAn arbitration award of EUR 26.4m on a hospital project in Doha triggered cross-default risk on the bonds; OHLA had to ask banks and bondholders in September 2026 for a permanent waiver (vote 29/9) to avoid acceleration of the entire debt.
- −6Debt and ratingFitch keeps the rating at B- and warns of limited liquidity. About 326 m EUR of bonds at about 9.5–9.75% interest maturing 2029, interest coverage 2.7x, Altman Z 1.04 and over 250 m EUR of bank guarantees from Spanish banks.
- −6DilutionThree capital increases in 2025 (incl. 320m shares at EUR 0.25 and up to 192m shares at EUR 0.26) as part of the recapitalisation; the share count has risen 50% in a year to approx. 1.4bn.
- −3Other legal casesBesides Qatar, OHLA has a judgment in the US of approx. EUR 38.5m and several open arbitration cases on old contracts, which may require extraordinary payments.
- −4Main shareholder's finances and governanceControlling shareholders, the Amodio brothers, have themselves asked holders of their own bonds (EUR 26m) for a postponement - the main shareholder is financially pressed and cannot be expected to support a new capital raise much. The ownership group has previously been marked by disputes with co-investors.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Order bookThe order book is over EUR 10bn and covers 28.3 months of activity (26.8 months a year earlier), which gives good revenue visibility.
- +1Creditor supportOver 75% of the bondholders supported the waiver after the Qatar ruling, so a forced acceleration of the debt has been averted.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Europe). Market cap checked myself: about 1,395m shares x EUR 0.3502 = about EUR 489m = about DKK 3,645m (Nordnet DKK 3,673m fits). Stockanalysis' gross margin of 43% is misleading for a contractor (subcontracts are booked outside cost of goods); EBIT margin and the company's own figures are used. The company's 'liquidity with recourse' of EUR 711m includes customer advances and funds tied up in joint ventures and projects, so net cash is not freely available. The creditors' waiver after the Qatar ruling is supported by over 75% of bondholders according to the press; the formal confirmation and the banks' waiver have not been read in the company's own announcement. Largest owners are not verified in the CNMV register. No formal restructuring is under way, but the 2025 recapitalisation and the 2026 waiver are close.
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