Rankings Pharma & medtech Oncopeptides
Oncopeptides
51
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Dilution and funding need−8
- Moat−5
Strengths
- Regulatory progress+3
- Insider buying+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 1.44 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 601m
- Cash runway
- 11 months
- Cash / debt
- 157.6 / 135.2m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +45%
Bull case
Third-line approval widens the market, and sales reach SEK 300–400m in 2028 with positive cash flow without a new share issue. At EV/sales of 4–6 that equals SEK 1.5–2.5bn, i.e. 2–3x from 0.86bn. A partner for the glioblastoma project or an ex-EU sale could give more, but it is not documented.
Bear case
Sales flatten at SEK 120–150m a year, cash runs out around mid-2027, and a new share issue at a deep discount (as in 2026 at SEK 1.55) dilutes 40–60%. The SEK 135m loan ranks ahead of shareholders. The share price could fall 50–80%.
Catalysts
- Oct–Nov 2026The European Commission's decision on extending Pepaxti to third line after the positive CHMP opinion on 17/9/2026binary oncopeptides.com
- 5 Nov 2026Q3 report: sales growth, burn and cash (runway)gradual stockanalysis.com
- 2026–2027Launch in Central and Eastern Europe via Salus (11 countries; list price in Slovenia has been set)gradual inderes.fi
- 2027Target of positive cash flow during the year – or new financing if it slipsgradual inderes.fi
Risk of going to zeromedium – about 11 months of cash and debt of almost the same amount, but rising sales and a new EU indication make it likely that money can be raised (with dilution)
Next financingThe cash at 30/6/2026 lasts to about May–June 2027 at the current burn (−SEK 42.8m in Q2). The target of positive cash flow in 2027 requires about 3x sales. Realistically a new share issue, loan or licence deal comes in H1 2027; the SEK 135m loan must also be refinanced or repaid.
Warrants & convertiblesNo warrants or convertibles found in the 2026 rights issue (plain shares at SEK 1.55); employee option programmes exist, but the number has not been examined.
Insiders, last 12 monthsCEO Sofia Heigis subscribed for 87,833 BTA shares at SEK 1.55 on 17/3/2026 (about SEK 0.14m); other management transactions in March and June 2026 relate to the issue. No insider sales found.
Largest ownersHealthCap VIII about 12.6%; other large owners not examined (institutions about 9% according to stockanalysis)
Circio check(1) Small market value: partly – about DKK 600m. (2) Hot theme: no – late-line multiple myeloma with a chemo-like drug. (3) Milestones: yes – an EU decision on third line in Oct–Nov 2026, but it is expected and partly priced in. (4) Large partner: no – only smaller distributors (Salus). (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – about 11 months. (6) Price near the bottom after a big fall: partly – −60% in a year, but the price has already risen from about 1.8 (50-day average).
Why this asymmetryReal sales and an upcoming EU expansion, but short runway, debt and a history of repeated dilutive share issues. The upside is more like 2–3x than 10x, and dilution eats much of it.
How the score is built
From 100 to 51, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1.66 SEK
- Median analyst target
- 2.50 SEK
- Upside to median
- +50.9%
- Analysts
- 3
- Target range
- 2.00 – 4.00 SEK
- 52-week change
- −73%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−24 of −30
- −10MarginGross margin 96%, but operating margin −206% (TTM): an operating loss of SEK 196m on revenue of SEK 95m. The loss is shrinking (283m in 2024), but Q2 2026 still delivered −SEK 48.7m.
- −4Quality of growthRevenue grew 62% in Q2 2026 to SEK 31.1m, but from a small base and with one product in late treatment lines in Europe; growth is driven especially by Italy and Spain.
- −5MoatMelflufen competes in myeloma against CAR-T, bispecific antibodies and other newer agents; the product has no patent-protected platform beyond the molecule, and the US is closed.
- −5Capital allocationThe company has lost over SEK 2.5bn since 2021 (operating loss SEK 1.49bn in 2021 alone) after a failed US launch and has raised capital time and again (SEK 1,106m, 435.6m and 200m).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyEV/sales 8.9 (TTM) vs 6.4 (2024), 17.0 (2023) and 18.4 (2025) – in the middle of a historically expensive range; P/B 34.7, because equity is only SEK 25m.
- −4Peers and absolute levelEV of about SEK 0.84bn for a loss-making company with expected revenue of SEK 125m in 2026 (EV/sales about 6.7); no earnings or FCF to price on.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−20 of −35
- −8Dilution and funding needA rights issue of about SEK 200m at SEK 1.55 in March 2026 added about 45% more shares. Cash of SEK 157.6m lasts only about 11 months at a burn of about 43m per quarter, so new capital is likely in 2027.
- −3DebtInterest-bearing debt of SEK 135m almost level with cash; net cash is only SEK 22m, and interest cover is −26.
- −4Regulatory historyThe FDA withdrew US approval because the phase 3 OCEAN study showed an overall-survival HR of 1.1 (about 5 months shorter median survival); ODAC voted 14–2 against. The new EU indication rests on the same study.
- −3Execution vs targetsThe target is positive cash flow during 2027, but Q2 2026 had an operating loss of SEK 48.7m on SEK 31.1m in revenue – the target requires about a tripling of sales without further costs.
- −2Share price riskShare price is down 60% over 52 weeks (from SEK 4.53 at end-2025 to about SEK 2.2).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Regulatory progressOn 17/9/2026 the CHMP recommended extending Pepaxti to third line in lenalidomide-refractory multiple myeloma, without requiring triple-class-refractory disease – a markedly larger patient group. The European Commission's decision is expected within 30–60 days.
- +1Insider buyingCEO Sofia Heigis subscribed for 87,833 shares at SEK 1.55 in the March 2026 issue (about SEK 0.14m).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
One commercial product (Pepaxti, Europe only); equity is almost gone (P/B 35), so P/B is meaningless; the lender and terms of the SEK 135m loan have not been examined; the owner list only partly examined; only 2 analysts.
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