Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Palladyne AI

Palladyne AI

Defence, aerospace & space · United StatesRank 536 of 829Prices 2 Nov 2026Model 1.4

15070100

A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.

Biggest deductions

Margin−12
Capital allocation−7
Funding and dilution−7

Strengths

Order backlog and guidance+3
Partner validation+1
Insider buying+1

How the score is built

From 100 to 51, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

51Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 3.34 USD
Median analyst target: 10.50 USD
Upside to median: +214.4%
Analysts: 4
Target range: 7.00 – 15.00 USD
52-week change: −60%
P/E (trailing): n/a
Forward P/E: n/a
PEG: n/a

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−28 of −30

Margin
The gross margin has fallen to 28.7% TTM (48.7% in 2025), because the acquired machine shops have a low margin. The operating loss is USD 42.7m TTM on revenue of 11.8m (operating margin −361%); Q2 2026 operating loss 13.4m vs 8.1m a year earlier.
sec.gov
−12
Quality of growth
Q2 revenue rose 470% to 5.8m, but 'driven by both acquisitions and organic growth' with no breakdown. The history is volatile: 14.6m (2022), 6.2 (2023), 7.8 (2024), 5.2 (2025). Guidance of 24–27m for 2026 rests on the order backlog.
stockanalysis.com
−5
Capital allocation
Accumulated deficit USD 505.7m. The Sarcos era (exoskeletons) burned over 400m before the shift to AI software and now drones/defense. Share count +36% over a year; the ATM program has sold 10.65m shares for USD 73.3m since Nov. 2024 (2.5m shares for 17.8m in H1 2026).
sec.gov
−7
Moat
SwarmOS (control of drones from several manufacturers) and Palladyne IQ are real software IP with Air Force funding, but the drone and swarm market is crowded with far larger players (Anduril, Shield AI, AeroVironment, Kratos). Avionics and machining are competitive.
sec.gov
−4

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−6 of −35

Multiples vs own history
EV/Sales 19.4 TTM vs 27.4 at the end of 2025 and 52 in 2024, but P/B has risen to 3.7 from 2.55, and P/TBV is 5.7 after goodwill from the acquisitions.
stockanalysis.com
−2
Peers and absolute level
EV of USD 230m corresponds to about 9x guidance revenue for 2026 (24-27m) and 19x TTM, vs AeroVironment about 3.9x and Innoviz about 1.7x. The price assumes growth continues strongly in 2027.
stockanalysis.com
−4

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−14 of −35

Funding and dilution
Cash of USD 43.7m at 30/6 vs guided operating spending of 32–36m in 2026 (8–9m per quarter): approx. 15 months of runway. A new ATM program of USD 50m with Jefferies (S-3 January 2026) is ready, so further dilution is likely. No going concern warning.
sec.gov
−7
Execution on defence programmes
The IAI partnership on HARPY/HAROP has no prepayment and requires the Department of War to buy the systems, Americanised and produced in the USA; no orders yet. The exercises (Ivy Mass, Northern Strike) are demonstrations, not production contracts.
sec.gov
−4
Dependence on public budgets
Most orders come from the Air Force (STRATFI, AFRL HANGTIME), Army programmes and a defence prime. Revenue depends on US defence budgets and contract timing.
sec.gov
−3

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15

Order backlog and guidance
The order backlog rose 43% in Q2 to USD 24.6m after new contracts worth 13m, and guidance of 24–27m for 2026 was repeated (raised earlier in the year).
barchart.com
+3
Partner validation
Exclusive US rights to IAI's HARPY, HAROP and Mini HARPY for up to 10 years, plus orders for BRAIN flight computers from a defence prime (2.6m).
sec.gov
+1
Insider buying
The CEO and board members bought 430,105 shares in a private placement in the issue in November 2024 (over 12 months ago). Insiders own 26.6%.
sec.gov
+1

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

Formerly Sarcos Technology and Robotics (SPAC 2021, reverse split 1:6 in 2024). Price USD 5.33 (2/10-2026), 49.3m shares, market cap USD 263m (about DKK 1,731m, in line with Nordnet). Revenue growth in 2026 is largely bought: GuideTech, Warnke Precision Machining and MKR Fabricators were acquired 14/11-2025, so organic growth cannot be separated. Net income 2025 was positive only because of gains on warrant liabilities. Analysts' price targets (avg. USD 10.75, +102%) should be taken with caution: Jefferies, which is the company's ATM agent, has Hold and USD 7. Insider trades (Form 4) in the last 12 months not reviewed. Customer concentration not found in the 10-Q.