Rankings Commodities & uranium NexGen Energy
NexGen Energy
51
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- P/NAV and multiples vs history−18
- Margin−10
- Funding and dilution−8
Strengths
- Regulatory approval and execution+2
- Contract book+1
- Asset quality+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 51, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 7.89 USD
- Median analyst target
- 16.64 USD
- Upside to median
- +110.9%
- Analysts
- 16
- Target range
- 14.04 – 19.25 USD
- 52-week change
- −19%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−16 of −30
- −10MarginNo revenue: operating result −CAD 110m and net result −CAD 254m TTM; operating cash flow −56m and FCF −CAD 344m TTM (−233m in 2025). ROIC −7.6% vs a WACC of 13%. The loss is counted only here.
- −6Execution and capexThe construction budget for Rook I has risen from CAD 1.3bn in the 2021 feasibility study to CAD 2.2bn (the 2024 update), and construction only started 8/6-2026 with a build time of 4 years, i.e. first production around 2030. The heavy part of the investment only begins in February–March 2027.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−18 of −35
- −18P/NAV and multiples vs historyEV of USD 5.63bn (about CAD 7.9bn) vs an after-tax NPV8 of CAD 6.3bn for Rook I at US$95/lb, i.e. about 1.25x NAV for a project that will only produce in about 4 years, and at a uranium price above spot (about USD 90). Developers normally trade below 1x NAV because of construction and financing risk. P/B 4.5 is at the low end of its own history (4.5-6.4 in 2021-25), but book value says little about a developer.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−13 of −35
- −8Funding and dilutionLiquidity of about CAD 970m against a total construction budget of CAD 2.2bn; the company seeks about USD 1bn via prepayments from power plants, debt and direct ownership shares in the project within nine months. The number of shares has risen 11.9% in a year (share issuances of CAD 993m TTM), and the debt (CAD 619m) consists of convertible bonds whose interest is partly paid in shares.
- −4Construction and operating riskRook I is an underground mine and mill in northern Saskatchewan with shaft sinking and ground freezing from 2027. The licence covers only site preparation and construction; operation requires a new hearing and decision from the CNSC.
- −1Short interest41.7m shares are sold short (6.2% of shares) with 10 days to cover, and the price is below both the 50- and 200-day averages.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+4 of +15
- +2Regulatory approval and executionThe CNSC issued the construction licence 5/3-2026 (valid to 2036) as the last federal approval; construction started 8/6-2026, and at Q2 the project was, according to management, on schedule and on budget, with major contracts awarded in line with the estimate.
- +1Contract bookSupply agreements with, among others, a large US utility (1m lbs per year for five years), and the contracted volume has doubled; the agreements are predominantly market-related and retain exposure to the uranium price.
- +1Asset qualityRook I/Arrow: 19.8m lbs per year over 11 years, IRR 45% and payback of about 12 months at US$95/lb; NPV is about 2.9x the construction budget.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Developer without revenue; the analysis follows the NYSE listing (USD), while the accounts are in CAD (converted at approx. 1.40 CAD/USD). Net income swings sharply due to mark-to-market of the USD convertible bonds (Q2 2026 profit of CAD 74.5m came from a non-cash gain of 96.5m). The NPV figure (CAD 6.3bn after tax, 8%, US$95/lb) is from August 2024; no more recent update has been found, and the content of the investor day on 1/9-2026 is not verified. The total size of the contract book varies between sources. Insider trades, management compensation and EV per lb of resource vs peers have not been examined systematically.
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