Rankings Software, cloud & internet Oracle

Oracle

Software, cloud & internet · United StatesRank 647 of 829Prices 2 Nov 2026Model 1.4

15070100

The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.

Biggest deductions

Multiples vs own history and peers−10
Cash flow−10
Customer concentration (OpenAI)−10

Strengths

Order book+2

How the score is built

From 100 to 43, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

43Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 119.22 USD
Median analyst target: 225.00 USD
Upside to median: +88.7%
Analysts: 41
Target range: 110.00 – 400.00 USD
52-week change: −55%
P/E (trailing): 18.7
Forward P/E: 14.0
PEG: 0.46

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−21 of −30

Margin
The gross margin has fallen from 79.1% (FY22) to 71.4% (FY24), 65.8% (FY26) and 64.0% TTM, and analysts expect 59.3% in FY27. The GAAP operating margin has so far risen to 34%, but the mix is shifting towards low-margin business.
stockanalysis.com
−3
ROIC
ROIC has fallen every year from 20.8% (FY22) to 16.1% (FY24), 13.2% (FY26) and 11.3% TTM vs a WACC of 10.5%; ROCE is 9.6%. According to internal documents (The Information), GPU rental yields a gross margin of only 14–16%.
datacenterdynamics.com
−6
Quality of growth
In Q1 FY27 cloud infrastructure (IaaS) grew 121% to $7.4bn, while the high-margin software business fell 3% to $5.5bn and SaaS grew only 10%. Growth comes from capital-heavy GPU rental, not the strong core.
sec.gov
−7
Capital allocation
Capex of $75.7bn TTM is funded with $40bn of new net debt in FY26 and a $20bn share sale via an ATM programme, now completed (share count +2.9% in one quarter). About $40bn more must be raised in FY27, yet the dividend ($5.8bn a year) is maintained.
sec.gov
−5

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−10 of −35

Multiples vs own history and peers
Forward P/E 15.6 vs 14.2–30.0 in FY22–26 (bottom of the range); trailing P/E 20.8 vs 28.6–38.2; EV/EBITDA 15.5 vs 13.1–25.5; P/S 5.6 vs 4.5–9.6. Cheap on earnings, but earnings are not turning into cash flow (P/FCF cannot be calculated), EV includes $132bn of net debt, FY27 EPS is expected only +6.7%, and the lower gross margin makes the old multiples less comparable.
stockanalysis.com
−10

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−35 of −35

Cash flow
FCF was −$28.7bn TTM and −$5.4bn in Q1, even though operating cash flow was lifted by $11.4bn of customer prepayments (the change in deferred revenue is +$17.5bn TTM). Consensus expects FCF of −$37.6bn in FY27.
stockanalysis.com
−10
Customer concentration (OpenAI)
S&P estimates that OpenAI accounts for about half the backlog and calls it a 'key credit risk'. OpenAI is not profitable.
computing.co.uk
−10
Debt and credit
Net debt $132bn (total debt $169bn), debt/EBITDA 4.5 and interest cover 4.8x. S&P downgraded to BBB- in July, one notch above junk, and Moody's has a negative outlook.
heise.de
−8
Execution (Project Jupiter)
On 24/9 Oracle sent a force majeure notice to Blue Owl's Stack Infrastructure over the Stargate campus Project Jupiter in New Mexico, after the state rejected a gas pipeline in July. The notice gives the right to defer payments if the 2028 target is missed, and the stock fell 3%.
cnbc.com
−3
Macro and sentiment
The stock is −53% over 52 weeks and has become the textbook example of fears of an AI bubble. On 28/9 it fell 3–4% on a new round of layoffs and concern over Project Jupiter.
stockstotrade.com
−3
Governance
Ellison (insider ownership 38%) adopted a 10b5-1 plan on 22/6 to sell up to 50m shares (about $7.5bn), while the company was selling $20bn of shares. The plan was cancelled the day after it was disclosed on 11/9, without any shares being sold.
cnbc.com
−1

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15

Order book
RPO rose $209bn in a year to $664bn, and over $30bn of new AI cloud contracts were booked in Q1. FY27 guidance is revenue of at least $90bn (+34%) and non-GAAP EPS of $8.10.
sec.gov
+2

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

About half of the $664bn order book is linked to OpenAI. Oracle is rated BBB- at S&P and has a negative outlook at Moody's with net debt of $132bn. FCF is −$29bn TTM and expected at −$38bn in FY27, and operating cash flow is inflated by $11.4bn of customer prepayments. On 24/9 came a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter and on 28/9 a new round of layoffs. Price targets (median $240) have not followed the fall to $133.