Rankings Oil & gas Prairie Operating
Prairie Operating
43
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Debt and liquidity−10
- Capital allocation−7
- Dilution from Series F and warrants−7
Strengths
- Price hedging+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 2.71 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 306m
- Cash runway
- 3 months
- Cash / debt
- 0.0 / 440.6m USD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +330%
Bull case
Production holds at 25–27,000 boe/d, oil stays above 60 USD, and H2 capex falls as guided, so FCF is used to reduce debt. At 3.5x EBITDA of 185m USD, EV becomes approx. 650m; minus approx. 480m in debt and preferred shares gives equity of approx. 170m USD – approx. 3–4 times today before dilution from warrants.
Bear case
A lower oil price or production decline triggers a lower borrowing base and covenant breach; with USD 21,000 in cash and a 125m working capital deficit it ends in an emergency issue at USD 0.2-0.3 or a restructuring in which shareholders are wiped out. Alternatively delisting to OTC.
Catalysts
- 2026-11-13 (approx.)Q3 2026 results: first quarter under the new minimum production covenant; August production was approx. 27,000 boe/dgradual stockanalysis.com
- 29 Dec 2026Nasdaq's deadline to regain USD 1 (extension or reverse split)binary sec.gov
- no date (autumn 2026)Borrowing base redetermination on the credit facility (USD 475m, 436m drawn) and refinancing of the remaining Series Fbinary tradingview.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – real assets (PP&E USD 950m) and EBITDA of approx. USD 190m, but net debt of 440m, minimal cash, changed covenants and preferred shares ahead of ordinary shareholders.
Next financingCash USD 21,000; liquidity is USD 39m of undrawn credit facility (calculated runway about 2.5 months at Q2 spending). Capex guidance (USD 185-195m for 2026, of which 132.6m spent in H1) and EBITDA guidance (180-190m) imply roughly neutral FCF in H2. The decisive test is the autumn borrowing base redetermination and refinancing of the rest of Series F; a cut would require equity or asset sales.
Warrants & convertibles78,000 Series F convertible preferred shares (carried at USD 43.2m at 30/6-2026, down from 121,050) with attached warrants (fair value USD 9.5m); anniversary warrants of 65% of remaining stated value divided by VWAP, deadline postponed to 31/8-2026. Issuance not confirmed.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNot examined in detail; no insider purchases found in the sources read. Former CEO Kovalik received accelerated vesting of RSUs on his departure in March 2026.
Largest ownersInsiders approx. 31.6% and institutions approx. 17.4% according to stockanalysis; names not verified. Short interest 10.4% of shares.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. USD 46m, but EV approx. 487m. (2) Hot theme: no – US shale oil is out of favor. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – Q3 results, borrowing base and Nasdaq deadline, but no binary breakthroughs. (4) Major partner: no. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – USD 39m in undrawn facility and a working capital deficit. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −78% in a year and −96% since 2023.
Why this asymmetryThe stock is a highly leveraged equity stub: small improvements in oil and debt can give several times the money, because EV is 10 times market value. But the same leverage, Series F dilution and covenant pressure make the zero risk real, and in the short term everything is controlled by the bank and the oil price.
How the score is built
From 100 to 43, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.44 USD
- Median analyst target
- 1.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +238.6%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 1.00 – 2.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −78%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 1.2
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−20 of −30
- −4MarginOperating margin is solid (operating result USD 121.8m on revenue of 343m TTM, adjusted EBITDA 34m in Q2), but interest and hedging losses eat it: pre-tax result −USD 41.6m TTM, and analysts' estimate for 2026 is a net loss of about USD 130m.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue has risen from USD 8m (2024) to 343m TTM almost entirely via debt-financed acquisitions; underlying production rose only about 4% year over year in Q2 2026 (21,866 boe/d). 2026 production guidance was lowered, and analysts have cut price targets from USD 3.50 to 2-2.50.
- −4MoatSmall price-taking producer with 59 employees in one basin (DJ Basin), where Colorado's drilling regulation is strict. No cost or technology advantage beyond testing smaller wellbores and longer laterals.
- −7Capital allocationThe share count has risen 330% over a year (62.5m at end-2025 to 112.8m now), and the acquisitions are financed with bank debt and an expensive convertible Series F preferred share with warrants. Capex (USD 248m TTM) exceeded operating cash flow (238m), so FCF is negative despite high EBITDA.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own history and peersThe stock looks extremely cheap: EV/EBITDA 2.5 vs 6.1 at end-2025, P/B 0.20 vs 0.28 and P/S 0.14 vs 0.42. But 90% of EV (USD 487m) is debt, so the stock is a leveraged option on the oil price and refinancing; small DJ/Rockies peers typically trade at 3–4x EBITDA, and FCF is negative (P/FCF n/a).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−24 of −35
- −10Debt and liquidityUSD 436m drawn on a credit facility with a 475m borrowing base, only 39m available and USD 21,000 in cash at 30/6-2026. Working capital deficit 125.5m, current ratio 0.25. The facility's current ratio covenant had to be amended on 14/8-2026, and a new minimum production covenant applies from Q3 2026.
- −7Dilution from Series F and warrants78,000 Series F preferred shares (carried at USD 43.2m) can be converted, and the holder is entitled to anniversary warrants equal to 65% of remaining stated value divided by VWAP – at a price of USD 0.4–0.6, potentially tens of millions of new shares. The deadline was postponed to 31/8-2026 in the fourth amendment.
- −4Listing riskNasdaq notice 2/7-2026 for price below USD 1; deadline 29/12-2026 for ten trading days above USD 1, with the option of a further 180 days. A price of USD 0.41 requires a reverse split of at least approx. 1:3; none has been proposed yet. If delisted to OTC, the share cannot be traded on Nordnet.
- −3Management changeCo-founders Edward Kovalik (CEO and chairman) and Gary Hanna (president) left the company on 2/3-2026 with approx. USD 4m in severance and accelerated vesting; an interim CEO (Richard Frommer) is running the company while a permanent one is sought.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Price hedgingA hedging program to 2029 with oil swaps at USD 61–63/barrel, gas at about USD 4.0–4.1/MMBtu and NGL swaps 2026–2028 dampens the risk of a fall in commodity prices, while debt is high.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – USA). Oil and gas producer in the DJ Basin (Colorado), grown through debt-financed acquisitions (the Bayswater assets 2025); cyclical. Figures from the Q2 2026 report and 10-Q and stockanalysis (TTM to 30/6-2026). The GAAP result is heavily distorted by fair value adjustments: the Q2 net income of USD 193.8m is due to gains on derivatives (45.1m), financial liabilities (48.2m) and remeasurement of Series F preferred shares (87.2m), so adjusted EBITDA and operating income are used. Quarterly burn (USD 46.5m) is FCF in Q2 2026 (operating cash flow 52.0m minus capex 98.5m); capex guidance implies lower burn in H2. Whether the Series F holder received anniversary warrants on 31/8-2026, and the number, is not confirmed. Insider trades and names of major shareholders have not been investigated in detail. The autumn borrowing base redetermination has not been found with a date.
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