Rankings Tech hardware & optics Pasqal
Pasqal
26
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs peers (no history)−32
- Margin−10
- Quality of growth−6
Strengths
- Net cash+2
- Installed base and order book+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 26, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 5.26 USD
- Median analyst target
- 15.78 USD
- Upside to median
- +200.0%
- Analysts
- 5
- Target range
- 12.05 – 19.72 USD
- 52-week change
- –
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−22 of −30
- −10MarginH1 2026 revenue was EUR 4.9m, and the operating loss EUR 59.2m (incl. EUR 27.3m of share-based pay and EUR 10.2m of transaction costs). The operating margin is about -1,200%. The net loss was EUR 92.4m in 2025, and no gross margin is disclosed. The loss counts here and not again under ROIC.
- −6Quality of growthGrowth has stalled: H1 +14% (EUR 4.3m to 4.9m), and analysts expect only EUR 18.7m in 2026 vs EUR 16.4m in 2025. Revenue is lumpy sales of systems and QPU upgrades (e.g. EUR 0.8m from the Jülich contract) to state-backed research centres. The order book of EUR 70.4m also includes grants and tax credits.
- −3Technology and moatNeutral atoms: 1,024 defect-free atoms and a register of over 1,000 physical qubits, but Pasqal discloses no number of logical qubits and no timeline for fault tolerance. The delivered machines (Orion, 140–200 qubits) are mostly used in analogue mode. The competitors QuEra and Atom Computing (with Microsoft) are working with the same technology.
- −3Capital allocationShare-based pay of EUR 27.3m in H1 is 5.6 times revenue (EUR 1.0m the year before). The SPAC structure was financed with expensive convertible bonds (see T3).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−32 of −35
- −32Multiples vs peers (no history)The market cap is $1.45bn (approx. $6.85 per share). EV is approx. €1.1bn after net cash and bonds. That gives EV/sales of approx. 65x TTM (approx. €17m) and approx. 60x 2026e, in line with IonQ (63x TTM). However, IonQ is growing approx. 100% organically, while Pasqal is growing 14%. EPS 2026e is −€0.47, and profit is not in sight.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−17 of −35
- −6Dilution (convertibles and warrants)Unsecured convertible bonds of approx. USD 200m with a 10% cash rate or 12% PIK, conversion at USD 12.00 (up to 56.3m shares in F-1). In addition come investment warrants on 50.1m shares and public and private warrants at USD 11.50 (17.3m shares). All in all, the share count could grow by more than 50% from 212m.
- −5Lock-up and selling overhangThe resale prospectus registers up to 286.7m shares, more than the 212.3m outstanding. The lock-up for the sponsor, old Pasqal owners and management runs 180 days after closing (approx. 23/2-2027) or ends earlier if the share price is above USD 12 in 20 of 30 trading days. Free float is thin after redemptions of over 90%.
- −3Customer concentrationThree customers accounted for 78% of revenue in 2025, primarily state-funded HPC centres (Jülich, GENCI/CEA, Italy/Leonardo) and Saudi Aramco.
- −2Price trend and sectorThe stock peaked at $19 on the first trading day (28/8), fell 21.7% on 3/9 and is now around $6.85, i.e. −64% from the peak and about −32% below the SPAC price of $10. The quantum sector is generally marked down.
- −1Cash burnOperating cash flow was −€25.2m in H1 (−€20.0m the year before). Burn rises with factory build-out and QPU production. Only about $360m came in at closing vs about $500m expected.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Net cashLiquidity was EUR 312.9m at 27/8 vs about EUR 170m in convertible bonds and EUR 10.7m in other debt. Net cash is about EUR 130m (about 10% of market cap), and runway is several years at current burn.
- +1Installed base and order bookSeven QPUs have been delivered, of which three are in production (incl. Jülich, GENCI, Italy and a 200-qubit cloud system in Saudi Arabia). Booked and awarded agreements are EUR 70.4m, about four times annual revenue.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Newly listed via SPAC (Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp. II). The merger closed 27/8-2026, and the stock trades on Nasdaq as PSQL (warrants PSQLW) from 28/8. There is no own multiple history, so T2 is set from peers (IonQ, D-Wave) and the absolute level. Financials are in EUR (IFRS, foreign issuer with 6-K/20-F), and stockanalysis has no financial pages. The figures are from the H1 announcement and the registration documents. 2025 revenue (EUR 16.4m) and customer concentration come from a secondary summary of the F-1. The number of conversion shares differs between the F-4 (26m) and F-1 (56m). Net cash is calculated with EUR 312.9m in cash (27/8) minus convertible bonds of about $200m.
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