Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants Pernod Ricard
Pernod Ricard
58
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Debt−5
- Customers are moving (inventory adjustment)−5
- Future segment and moat−4
Strengths
- Cash flow and costs+2
- Diversified base+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 58, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 69.18 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 74.00 EUR
- Upside to median
- +7.0%
- Analysts
- 20
- Target range
- 60.00 – 122.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- −18%
- P/E (trailing)
- 14.5
- Forward P/E
- 12.0
- PEG
- 4.39
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−11 of −30
- −4Future segment and moatOrganic revenue -3.9% in FY26 (reported -14.2%) with the US -14% and China -19%; excluding the US and China only +0.5%. In the US, sell-out fell 7% vs the market (loss of market share), and in China the company is losing share in cognac and prestige. The medium-term target has been cut to 'close to the bottom' of 3–6%.
- −3ROICROIC has fallen from 9.5–10.0% in FY22–23 to 8.0% in FY25 and 6.4% now; ROE 7.6% and ROCE 7.5% – below the cost of capital for a debt-heavy group.
- −2MarginThe operating margin has slipped from 28.2% (FY22) to 25.7%, and the gross margin fell 216bp to 59.3% in FY26 due to tariffs, inflation, negative price/mix and lower factory utilisation.
- −2Capital allocationBought back own shares for EUR 1.9bn in FY22–24 at prices of EUR 110–173 (now 60), and holds the dividend at EUR 4.70 (payout 102% of EPS; dividend 1,226m vs FCF 1,188m) with net debt/EBITDA 3.7x – the final dividend is offered in shares to save cash.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 10.3 vs 10.9–20.5 in FY22–26; EV/EBITDA 9.6 vs 10.4–17.1; P/FCF 12.4 vs 13.5–39.0. Below its own history and below Diageo (forward P/E 12.8, EV/EBITDA 10.6), but EV/FCF is 22 due to debt, and analysts expect falling EPS (-2%) in FY27, so the discount is partly deserved.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−14 of −35
- −5DebtNet debt EUR 10.7bn and net debt/EBITDA 3.7x (vs 2.7x in FY22–23); the target below 3.0x is only reached in FY29. Interest payments rose from 275 to 465m EUR, interest cover 4.9x and Altman Z 1.32.
- −5Customers are moving (inventory adjustment)FY27 guidance is only 'broadly stable' organic revenue: the US and China are expected to fall again due to inventory adjustments at distributors from Q1, and management expects the US to remain weak in the medium term.
- −4Macro, tariffs and regulationUS tariffs on European spirits and the cognac case in China (minimum price agreement after the anti-dumping investigation) are pressuring price and margin; the conflict in the Middle East gave -29% in the region in Q4 and is expected to weigh in FY27.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Cash flow and costsFCF rose 6% to EUR 1,197m with 91% cash conversion (target 80%), and the EUR 1bn efficiency programme is half delivered and will be completed in FY28, a year ahead of plan; structural costs -8% organically.
- +1Diversified baseBroad brand portfolio and geography; India, the second-largest market, grew 7% (9% excluding Imperial Blue) and is expected to grow strongly in FY27.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The fiscal year ends 30/6; FY26 = July 2025–June 2026. Reported EPS of 4.77 EUR is below adjusted EPS (about 5.85), and forward P/E 10.3 is based on adjusted figures; the reported decline (−14.2%) is stronger than the organic one (−3.9%) due to currency and the sale of Imperial Blue. The company's own net debt/EBITDA is 3.7x, stockanalysis shows 4.1x. The Ricard family (about 14% of shares, more votes via double voting rights) and Alexandre Ricard as CEO are mentioned without points; the family took the final dividend in shares. Credit rating (S&P/Moody's) and insider trading have not been investigated. Several price targets (e.g. Bernstein 110 EUR) are far above the share price and are not a finding. Q1 FY27 revenue about 22 Oct 2026.
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