Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Scandinavian Astor Group
Scandinavian Astor Group
58
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Execution and customer concentration−6
- Margin−5
- Quality of growth−5
Strengths
- Order book+3
- Insider buying+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 58, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of . Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- –
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- –
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−17 of −30
- −5MarginAdjusted EBITDA margin fell from 19.2% in 2025 to 12.8% in H1 2026 and only 6.2% in Q2 (adjusted EBITDA 10.6m on revenue of 171m), because large deliveries were pushed to H2 and the product mix was weak. Reported EBITDA of 141.6m in Q2 is due to a revaluation gain of 131.9m.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue rose 82% in H1 2026, but according to the CEO most of it is due to acquisitions; organic growth is not stated for H1 (2025: organic 42%). The strategy is buy & build (NSG, PBH Teknik etc.), so growth is primarily acquired.
- −5Capital allocationNSG was bought for SEK 467.8m, paid with cash, 8.8m new shares at SEK 19.64 (12.4% dilution) and promissory notes, partly financed with an acquisition loan of 257.5m (STIBOR + 2.25%). PBH Teknik (88.2m) followed in July. Operating cash flow was only 14.6m in H1 (-25.9m in Q2), so the acquisitions are financed with shares and debt, not own cash flow.
- −2MoatAstor is a collection of small Swedish niche producers in protection/safety (Astor Protect) and advanced manufacturing (Astor Industry). There are real customer relationships in the defence industry, but few signs of a technological or pricing moat beyond being an approved supplier.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−5 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own history and absolute levelEV is about SEK 1.4bn (989m in market cap plus estimated net debt of about 400m). Pro forma EBITDA incl. NSG for a full year is about 130-150m, i.e. EV/EBITDA about 9-11 and EV/Sales about 1.8. The stock is down 51% in a year, so the multiple is lower than in 2025. There is only a short listing history, and P/E is distorted by the revaluation gain.
- −1PeersSwedish defence peers trade higher: MilDef at EV/EBITDA 23 and Kitron at 18. Astor is cheaper but smaller, more indebted and with fluctuating margins, so the discount is partly deserved.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−18 of −35
- −5Management changeCEO Mattias Hjorth stepped down in April 2026, and board member Martin Elovsson took over in May. CFO Wictor Billström left in March (interim CFO, new CFO Niclas Lundin from 1/9). A full replacement of top management in the middle of a major acquisition phase.
- −5Debt and financingThe acquisition loan of SEK 257.5m (3 years) plus promissory notes and earn-outs to the NSG sellers and the PBH purchase price give an estimated net debt of approx. 400m, approx. 3x pro forma EBITDA. The equity ratio was 38.3% (45.6% after the issue). With negative operating cash flow in Q2 there is limited room for new cash acquisitions without more shares.
- −6Execution and customer concentrationQ2 disappointed: large deliveries under 'a larger customer contract' were postponed to H2, adjusted EBITDA fell to 10.6m, and the CEO wrote that he is not satisfied with the quarter. A single large contract can move an entire quarter, and the customers are not named.
- −2Listing and share price performanceListed on NGM with lower requirements than Nasdaq. The stock has fallen 51% in a year and 23% in three months, and the directed issue to the NSG sellers was at SEK 19.64, 29% above the current price.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Order bookThe order book is a record SEK 610m (+111%), equal to approx. 1 year of pro forma revenue, and deliveries postponed from H1 are to be invoiced in H2.
- +1Insider buyingThe new CEO Martin Elovsson bought 15,000 shares 27/5-2026 and owns 100,000 shares. Several senior people and board members have bought in the past year; no sales found.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
No stockanalysis page (quote/sto/ASTOR and quote/ngm/ASTOR return 404); figures are from the company's own reports, and 'path' is best guess. Market cap calculated by us: 71.04m shares (after the directed issue of 8.8m shares to the NSG sellers in July) × SEK 13.925 = SEK 989m ≈ DKK 653m; Nordnet's DKK 575m is before the issue. Net debt after the NSG and PBH acquisitions is not disclosed in the material I could read (the Q2 report as PDF could not be read); approx. SEK 400m is an estimate based on the acquisition loan of 257.5m, promissory notes to the NSG sellers and the PBH purchase price of 88m. EBITDA and EPS in Q2 are inflated by a non-cash revaluation gain of 131.9m (NSG). Only adjusted figures are used. Operating company with positive EBITDA and no 'burn', so runway is set to null. Short data was not found.
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