Rankings Pharma & medtech Pfizer
Pfizer
62
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Patent expiry−10
- Capital allocation−5
- Quality of growth−4
Strengths
- Raised guidance+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 62, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 30.67 USD
- Median analyst target
- 28.50 USD
- Upside to median
- −7.1%
- Analysts
- 28
- Target range
- 25.00 – 36.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +24%
- P/E (trailing)
- 40.4
- Forward P/E
- 11.1
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−10 of −30
- −4Quality of growthRevenue has stood still at USD 62.6-63.7bn since 2024 and is expected to fall 0.5% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027; EPS consensus falls 7.6% and 2.6%. Neither bigger nor stronger since the COVID peak (101bn in 2022).
- −5Capital allocationDebt rose from USD 39bn to 75bn with the Seagen purchase in 2023, and Metsera was bought for up to about USD 10bn after a bidding war with Novo (from 7.3bn). In Q2 2026 Pfizer wrote down USD 4.3bn of intangible assets because of changed development plans and lower sales forecasts.
- −1ROICROIC 13.5% vs 28–36% in 2021–2022; ROE only 5.0% due to write-downs and equity full of goodwill from acquisitions.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−2 of −35
- −1Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 9.9 (2021–2025: 8.5–19.3) and EV/EBITDA 8.2 (6.4–14.5) are in the lower part of the history, but forward earnings are falling; P/FCF 14.3 is above the 2021–2022 level of 11.
- −1PeersBristol-Myers Squibb, which faces a similar patent cliff, trades at forward P/E 9.3, EV/EBITDA 8.2 and P/FCF 10.6; Pfizer is not cheaper than the nearest peer (Merck: forward P/E 16.7).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−17 of −35
- −10Patent expiryLoss of exclusivity costs about USD 1.5bn in revenue in 2026, over 3bn in 2027 and over 6bn in 2028 – about 10% of revenue disappears in three years.
- −4Debt and dividend pressureNet debt USD 51.8bn (2.0x EBITDA); the dividend of USD 1.72 corresponds to 226% of reported earnings and 89% of FCF, and there are no share buybacks in 2026, because debt must come down.
- −3Regulation and drug pricingThe agreement with the Trump administration gives Medicaid most-favored-nation (MFN) prices and requires MFN prices on all new drugs in the US in return for three years of tariff exemption and USD 70bn in US investments.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+1 of +15
- +1Raised guidanceThe midpoint of the 2026 revenue guidance was raised by USD 0.5bn to 60.5–62.5bn in Q2; adjusted EPS guidance of USD 2.80–3.00 maintained.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Reported EPS (0.76 USD TTM) is depressed by 4.3bn USD of write-downs in Q2 2026; adjusted EPS guidance is 2.80–3.00 USD, so trailing P/E (36) is misleading and is not used in T2. The Nordnet list showed a price of 0 USD for the line (data error in the list). Patent expiry is scored only in T3.
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