Rankings Software, cloud & internet Palantir
Palantir
62
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−35
- Insider trading−4
- Customer concentration (the US government)−4
Strengths
- Raised guidance+3
- Order book and customer behaviour+2
- Net cash+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 62, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 178.34 USD
- Median analyst target
- 224.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +25.6%
- Analysts
- 33
- Target range
- 80.00 – 265.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −11%
- P/E (trailing)
- 125.6
- Forward P/E
- 81.7
- PEG
- 1.53
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−3 of −30
- −2Capital allocation (stock-based pay)The share count has risen 1.8% in a year, and stock-based pay was $836m TTM (13.6% of revenue, $265m in Q2). Net of stock pay, FCF is $2.5bn instead of 3.4bn. No shares have been bought back to offset the dilution.
- −1Quality of earningsTTM net profit ($3.02bn) is higher than operating profit ($2.63bn), because the effective tax rate is only 1.3% and there is interest income on the cash. With a normal tax rate the GAAP P/E would be about 20% higher.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−35 of −35
- −35Multiples vs own history and peersP/S 73 (forward 44), trailing P/E 160, forward P/E 99, EV/EBITDA 166 and P/FCF 134 (FCF yield 0.75%). The multiples are lower than at the end of 2025 (P/S 95, forward P/E 192), but far above 2021–23 (P/S 7–24, forward P/E 43–98) and many times higher than software peers. Price targets are only 4% above the share price.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−10 of −35
- −4Insider tradingCEO Karp has sold about $86m in 2026, and Sankar and Thiel have also sold tens of millions. There is no insider buying, and Karp has a new sale plan (Form 144).
- −4Customer concentration (the US government)The US government accounted for $809m of Q2 revenue of $1,935m (42%). The business therefore depends on defence budgets and politics in Washington, and the contracts are politically contested.
- −2Weak international businessThe US accounted for $1,573m of $1,935m in Q2 (81%). The rest of the world contributed only about $362m, so growth comes almost entirely from the US, and the European commercial business has been weak for several years.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+7 of +15
- +3Raised guidance2026 guidance has been raised to revenue of $8.150–8.158bn (+82%) and US commercial revenue of over $3.42bn (+134%); adjusted FCF guidance is $4.5–4.7bn. Q2 revenue rose 93%.
- +2Order book and customer behaviour$3.37bn of contracts were closed in Q2 (+49%), including a record $2.13bn in US commercial. Remaining deal value in US commercial is $6.24bn, more than double in a year, and there were 73 deals over $10m.
- +2
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Forward P/E about 99 and P/S 73: the price leaves no room for error, even though multiples have fallen from the 2025 peak. Karp, Sankar and Thiel keep selling. 42% of revenue comes from the US government, and GAAP results are lifted by a 1% tax rate. Q3 results come 2/11.
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