Rankings Tech hardware & optics Pricer
Pricer
62
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Customer concentration−8
- Margin−7
- Moat−6
Strengths
- Orders and customers+3
- Margin improvement and costs+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 6
- Price
- 2.60 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 418m
- Cash runway
- 99 months
- Cash / debt
- 336.3 / 343.0m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +0%
Bull case
The gross margin holds above 27%, and Sobeys, DeCA and the USA more than offset Carrefour, so revenue reaches SEK 2.6–2.8bn with an 8–10% EBIT margin (about SEK 230–280m). At EV/EBIT of 10 the market cap would be SEK 2.3–2.8bn, about 3.5–4x today – in line with the 2021 price.
Bear case
The Carrefour volumes disappear, VusionGroup and Hanshow squeeze prices, and the gross margin falls back towards 20%, so Pricer again earns around zero. The share price could then fall 30–40%, but the balance sheet makes a zero risk small.
Catalysts
- 22 Oct 2026Q3 2026 report: how much of the Carrefour decline comes through, and whether the gross margin of approx. 28% holdsbinary stockanalysis.com
- H2 2026–2027Rollout at Sobeys (300–350 stores, approx. USD 51m) and the US Defense Commissary Agency via IBM Federalgradual inderes.fi
- from H2 2026Cost savings of SEK 17m annually after the organizational reviewgradual pricer.com
Risk of going to zerolow - profit, positive cash flow, net debt around zero and cash of SEK 336m.
Next financingNo funding need: Pricer is profitable (net income SEK 69m TTM) and FCF-positive (SEK 164m TTM), and net debt is almost zero (−SEK 6.7m). 99 means no burn.
Warrants & convertiblesNo convertibles found; the share count is unchanged over a year (+0.04%). Any incentive programmes for management have not been examined.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found after October 2025. Latest found: CEO Magnus Larsson bought 10,000 and commercial director Mats Arnehall 20,000 shares in April 2025 (outside 12 months).
Largest ownersAccording to Investing.com/marketscreener (not verified against the share register): UBS Asset Management about 14% (alternatively stated as Sterling Strategic Value Fund 14.1%), Nordea Investment Management about 11%, Göran Sundholm about 10%, Avanza Fonder/Pension about 6–8%, Nordnet about 5%.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. DKK 420m. (2) Hot theme: partial – retail digitalization and AI, but not a hyped theme. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – Q3 report and rollouts, gradual rather than binary. (4) Major partner: yes – Sobeys, Carrefour and IBM Federal (DeCA). (5) Funding for 2+ years: yes – self-funding. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – SEK 3.9 vs SEK 20.6 in 2021 and SEK 11.7 in 2024.
Why this asymmetryLow valuation (EV/EBITDA about 4, P/B under 0.6), a self-financing company and a turnaround in gross margin give limited downside. The upside, however, is more like 2-4x over several years than a Circio rocket, and the Carrefour decline in H2 2026 is a known headwind.
How the score is built
From 100 to 62, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 4.54 SEK
- Median analyst target
- 5.83 SEK
- Upside to median
- +28.4%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 5.55 – 6.10 SEK
- 52-week change
- −0%
- P/E (trailing)
- 9.2
- Forward P/E
- 9.1
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−23 of −30
- −7MarginEBIT margin 5.0% TTM, 2.9% in 2025 and only 0.5–0.7% in 2022–2023; gross margin has improved to 24.6% TTM (28.1% in Q2 2026), but operating margin is still thin for a hardware and software supplier.
- −4ROICROIC 8.3% TTM after 0.45% in 2025, 15.2% in 2024 and 1–2% in 2022–2023; the return on capital swings sharply and over time lies below the cost of capital.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue is SEK 2.15bn TTM vs 2.68bn in 2023 (-20%); France has halved from 1.05bn to 0.52bn SEK (2023-2025). Q2 2026 turned to +8% revenue and +13% order intake.
- −6MoatPricer is a small player in electronic shelf labels against VusionGroup (SES-imagotag) and China's Hanshow, which are several times larger; project-based rollouts are won in tenders with price pressure, and the economies of scale lie with the competitors.
- −3Capital allocationThe share count rose about 19–23% in both 2023 and 2024 (issue), no dividend since 2021, and restructuring costs were incurred again in 2026 (SEK 9m).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−2 of −35
- −2FCF qualityThe multiples are low vs own history (P/E 9.1 vs 14.6 in 2024; EV/EBITDA 4.2 vs 9.6–79; P/B 0.57 vs 0.64–3.4), but the FCF yield of 26% is lifted by a working capital release of SEK 164m in Q4 2025, and operating cash flow swings from −87 to +164m per quarter.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−14 of −35
- −8Customer concentrationA few large chains account for a large share of revenue: Carrefour volumes fall in H2 2026 as previously announced, and Canada (Sobeys) was 698 m SEK, about a third of revenue in 2025. Management itself writes that the dependence is only falling 'gradually'.
- −3Earnings qualityRecurring adjustment items: SEK 9m in restructuring costs in Q2 2026 (adjusted EBIT 34.5 vs reported 25.5m), and losses in Q2 2025 (EBIT −20m) and Q1 2025.
- −3Working capital and inventoryInventory turnover 2.5 (falling from 3.4 in 2023) and highly volatile operating cash flow (Q2 2025 -87m, Q3 2025 -44m, Q4 2025 +164m, Q2 2026 +10m SEK).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Orders and customersFramework agreement with Sobeys worth approx. 51m USD (300–350 stores, April 2026), rollout at the US Defense Commissary Agency via IBM Federal and order intake +13.4% to 568m SEK in Q2 2026.
- +2Margin improvement and costsGross margin 28.1% in Q2 2026 vs 19.0% a year earlier (lower production costs, better mix and more Plaza SaaS), and a cost programme is to save SEK 17m annually from H2 2026.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under 3 kr). The price is 3.94 SEK, but approx. 2.60 DKK, so the stock is under 3 kr in Danish kroner. Market cap checked: 164.48m shares × 3.94 SEK = 648m SEK ≈ 428m DKK, close to Nordnet's 418m DKK. Pricer is not a classic penny company: it is profitable and FCF-positive, so runway is set to 99 (no burn). The Q2 report PDF has not been read in full; net debt, order backlog and share of recurring SaaS revenue (Plaza) are from stockanalysis or not examined. TTM FCF was boosted by a working-capital release in Q4 2025. Insider trades within 12 months and incentive programmes have not been fully examined. Tariff exposure (production in Asia) has not been examined. No stockanalysis forecast page (404 = no analysts), even though stockanalysis shows a forward P/E. Electronic shelf labels do not fit the list perfectly; chose 'Tech hardware & optics'.
Also in Tech hardware & optics
The highest scores in the same industry.
