Rankings Utilities & power Photon Energy
Photon Energy
38
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Bond default and restructuring−14
- Multiples vs own history and peers−8
- Margin−6
Strengths
- Positive free cash flow and better EBITDA+3
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 2.06 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 124m
- Cash runway
- 6 months
- Cash / debt
- 2.4 / 171.9m PLN
- Dilution, 12 months
- +1%
Bull case
The sale of the Romanian parks and the RayGen stake provides cash, the bond is reprofiled with a maturity extension without conversion, and EBITDA rises to EUR 20–25m on higher power prices and lower costs. At EV/EBITDA of 9–10, EV becomes about EUR 200–230m; minus about 170m in debt = EUR 30–60m equity, i.e. 2–3.5x the current market cap of 17m.
Bear case
The bondholders demand a debt-to-equity conversion of EUR 78.8m, or the bank pulls the overdraft facility; current shareholders are diluted to a small fraction, or the company goes into restructuring (Dutch WHOA/German SchVG), where the stock becomes almost worthless.
Catalysts
- 2026-09 to 2026-10Closing of the sale of the Romanian solar parks and projects (target end of September) and a decision in the Polish bankruptcy casegradual uk.investing.com
- Q4 2026New vote among the bondholders on a joint representative and an independent business review, then a concrete restructuring proposalbinary webdisclosure.com
- Nov 2027Maturity of the green bond 2021/2027 (78.8 m EUR)binary tradingview.com
- No datePublication of the revised 2025 annual report (PwC) with a possible going concern remarkbinary eqs-news.com
Risk of going to zerohigh – defaulted unsecured bond of almost 5 times market cap, no audited annual report for 2025 and a conversion to the bondholders on the table
Next financingOperations are cash flow positive (OCF EUR 5.9m in Q2), but at holding level there is no money for the green bond: the coupon of about EUR 1.3m per quarter has been deferred three times, and with free cash of EUR 2.4m it covers only about 6 months of coupon payments. A sale of the Romanian parks is planned (closing targeted end of September 2026), an exit from RayGen and a final payment from AGL (more than AUD 4m in Q3 2027). The bond (maturity Nov. 2027) has to be restructured via an independent business review and a new vote among the bondholders; the scenarios include maturity extension, write-down and debt-to-equity conversion, where the old shareholders risk being left with a small share.
Warrants & convertiblesNo known warrants or convertibles; the biggest dilution risk is a possible debt-to-equity conversion of the green bond of EUR 78.8m (almost 5 times market cap), which management has mentioned as one of the scenarios.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider trades found (not systematically reviewed).
Largest ownersThe founders Georg Hotar and Michael Gartner control the majority of the shares via their holding companies (free float only about 15.6m of 60.6m shares = about 26% according to stockanalysis); exact 2026 stakes not verified.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. EUR 17m. (2) Hot theme: partial – solar and storage, but solar stocks are unpopular. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – asset sale, bond vote and annual report. (4) Major partner: no – only AGL as buyer of the Yadnarie project. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – the bond is in default. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −59% in a year and over −90% from the peak.
Why this asymmetryThere are real assets (solar parks, positive operating cash flow), and with a market cap of only EUR 17m a mild bond restructuring could return several times the money. But the bondholders hold the negotiating power, and a debt-to-equity conversion or restructuring is just as likely as a maturity extension.
How the score is built
From 100 to 38, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1.04 PLN
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −49%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−19 of −30
- −6MarginNet loss three years in a row (−15.7, −13.1 and −EUR 17.4m in 2023–25; −15.4m TTM), operating margin −3% and EBITDA margin only 7.6% TTM for a group that owns solar parks. Q2 2026 showed improvement (EBITDA 5.7m, net loss 0.3m).
- −5Quality of growthRevenue has stood still at EUR 91-95m since 2022; engineering fell from 33 to EUR 4.9m, and H1 2026 revenue fell 4.8%. Installed capacity is unchanged at 134.7 MWp.
- −2MoatSolar parks with tariffs are a real but competitive asset; the Czech tariffs (about 14.2 MWp) expire 2029–30, and services/technology trading have low barriers to entry.
- −6Capital allocationDebt-financed expansion (Australia, RayGen, Polish trading company) has failed: the Australian engineering company is being liquidated, the Polish trading company has gone bankrupt, and the workforce has been cut 35%. ROCE −1.4%, debt/EBITDA 24.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−8 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own history and peersP/B 0.32 and P/S 0.18 vs 1.0–2.3 and 0.7–2.4 in 2021–24 look cheap, but the stock is a small residual on top of EUR 172m of debt: EV/EBITDA is 25 vs 12–39 historically and approx. 8–12 for listed solar park owners, so the business as a whole is not cheap.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−32 of −35
- −14Bond default and restructuringThree coupons on the 2021/2027 green bond (EUR 78.8m, 6.5%, unsecured at holding level) have been deferred (Feb., May, Aug. 2026). A restructuring under the German bond act is being prepared, and a debt-to-equity conversion is an option that could wipe out the current shareholders. The vote on 1/9-2026 was interrupted after objections.
- −6Missing annual report 2025The audited annual report for 2025 has been postponed from 31/7 to 30/9 and now indefinitely; the company writes that the proposed changes to the bond terms may affect PwC's conclusions on financial position and covenants.
- −4Bank financing and liquidityCash was only EUR 2.4m (8.8m incl. restricted funds), current ratio 0.99, and an overdraft of EUR 4.95m fell due at the end of September 2026 with a solution 'under discussion' with the bank.
- −3Bankruptcy in a subsidiary and liquidationPhoton Energy Trading PL filed for bankruptcy in March 2026 (court ruling expected Sep./Oct.), and the Australian engineering company is being liquidated; risk of guarantees and claims against the parent company.
- −3Regulation: tariff expiryCzech feed-in tariffs for about 14.2 MWp expire 2029–30, and the other markets (Romania, Hungary) are increasingly exposed to power price swings and negative hourly prices.
- −2Price risk and liquidity in the stockThe price has fallen 59% over 52 weeks and more than 90% from the 2022 peak; turnover in Warsaw is only about 4,000 shares per day.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+3 of +15
- +3Positive free cash flow and better EBITDAPositive FCF of 13.3m EUR TTM (13.1m in 2025 vs −16 to −25m in 2022–23), and EBITDA in Q2 2026 more than doubled to 5.7m EUR after cost cuts.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Dutch-registered, Prague-based solar energy group (own solar parks of 134.7 MWp in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Australia, O&M, technology trading, water purification, stake in RayGen). The path is Warsaw (quote/wse/PEN), because the Xetra/Frankfurt line (P7V) has no statistics page; therefore currency is set to PLN so the price matches the path. Financial figures and penny amounts are in EUR (the company's reporting currency). Market cap calculated by ourselves: 60.56m shares × EUR 0.275 = EUR 16.7m (about DKK 124m; Nordnet 122). The 2025 annual report has not been published (postponed again 30/9-2026, new date unknown), so latest figures are unaudited Q2 2026. No specific debt restructuring has been proposed yet; a debt-to-equity conversion has been mentioned as an option. Cyclical set to yes, because Romanian and Hungarian production and technology trading follow electricity prices, while the Czech parks have fixed tariffs. Largest owners (the founders) not verified for 2026. No analysts.
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