Rankings Software, cloud & internet Precise Biometrics

Precise Biometrics

Software, cloud & internet · SwedenRank 550 of 829Prices 3 Nov 2026Model 1.4Penny

15070100

A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.

Biggest deductions

Margin−10
Quality of growth−8
Integration and synergies−7

Strengths

Net cash after share issue+3
Commercial validation+1

Speculative profile

A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.

All penny stocks

Asymmetry (1–10): 5
Price: 0.34 DKK
Market value: DKK 92m
Cash runway: 41 months
Cash / debt: 110.0 / 31.0m SEK
Dilution, 12 months: +247%

Bull case

The synergies of SEK 45m are realised, and total revenue (about SEK 156m in 2025) grows to 200m with EBITDA of SEK 40m. At EV/EBITDA 8 plus a net cash of about 80m, equity becomes about SEK 400m, about 3x today. A takeover of the whole company at 1x revenue plus cash gives about 2x.

Bear case

Both businesses keep shrinking (Precise −29% in Q2, FPC's sensors under Chinese pressure), the synergies are eaten by restructuring, and the cash is used up in 2028, leading to a new issue. The price could halve, but net cash of about SEK 0.4 per share sets a floor as long as it is not burned.

Catalysts

Oct 2026Outcome of the TO2 options (exercise ends 2/10-2026), up to approx. SEK 4mgradual inderes.fi
13 Nov 2026Q3 2026 report: first quarter with Fingerprint Cards consolidated, cash after the issue and synergy statusbinary stockanalysis.com
2026–2027Realisation of at least 45m SEK of annual cost synergies (primarily in 2026)gradual mfn.se

Risk of going to zerolow - after the issue, net cash (estimated about SEK 80m) is about 60% of market cap, and total operations were close to cash-neutral in H1 2026. The risk is slow erosion of value, not bankruptcy.

Next financingNo acute financing: the issue raised SEK 100m gross, and both companies had slightly positive operating cash flow in H1 2026. Burn in H2 2026 is driven by c. SEK 25m in restructuring costs. Cash (estimate c. SEK 110m) lasts 3+ years at that burn; a new issue is only likely if the synergies fail to materialise or if the company wants to buy more companies.

Warrants & convertiblesTO2 options (from the merger): 1,855.5m options, 211 options per share = approx. 8.8m new shares at SEK 0.47, exercised 11/9–2/10-2026 (max. approx. SEK 4.1m). Employee programmes (ESOP 2025/2028 and 2025/2029) from FPC. No convertibles found.

Insiders, last 12 monthsFour small insider trades totaling about 25,000 SEK over the last six months (allaaktier.se); no large purchases or sales found.

Largest ownersNot fully investigated. The underwriters DNB Bank and Schonfeld Global Master Fund were allocated a large part of the 58.9m underwriting shares; FPC's former shareholders own about 47% before the issue. Insiders about 3% according to stockanalysis (before the merger).

Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – DKK 92m. (2) Hot theme: partial – digital identity (EU ID wallet, MOSIP) and biometrics, but not a hype theme. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – first joint quarter 13/11 and synergies, but no binary news. (4) Major partner: partial – DNB and Schonfeld underwrote the issue, and MOSIP approval, but no major industrial partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: yes – approx. SEK 110m cash and near cash-neutral operations. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −81% in a year and 37% below the issue price.

Why this asymmetryThe rare thing in a penny stock: funded for several years and an enterprise value close to zero after the cash. The downside is limited by the cash, but both businesses are declining organically, so a 3–10x requires the synergies to succeed and revenue to turn – for which there is no sign yet.

How the score is built

From 100 to 50, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.

100Start

50Score

Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.

Key numbers

As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.

Price: 0.58 SEK
Median analyst target: –
Upside to median: –
Analysts: none
Target range: –
52-week change: −80%
P/E (trailing): n/a
Forward P/E: n/a
PEG: n/a

Findings

Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.

Business

Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30

Margin
Precise alone: operating margin −35% TTM (EBIT −24m SEK on 68.8m revenue), Q2 2026 EBITDA −6.5m vs −0.5m a year earlier. Fingerprint Cards, which has been added, had EBITDA of −14.1m SEK in Q1 2026 (adjusted +0.6m). Loss-making every year since 2021.
stockanalysis.com
−10
Quality of growth
Organic decline: Q2 2026 revenue SEK 14.7m vs 20.8m (−29%), H1 31.8 vs 40.8m. Biometric Technologies has fallen from 65m (2024) to 47m TTM. Growth now comes from the merger, not from sales; ARR rose only from 18.2 to 19.1m.
inderes.fi
−8
Capital allocation
Merger with the loss-making Fingerprint Cards (purchase price about 136 m SEK in shares) followed by a rights issue at 0.82 SEK; the share price is now 0.52 SEK, 37% below the issue price. Only 91% was subscribed, and 44% went to guarantors.
inderes.fi
−5
Moat
Small player (36 employees before the merger) in a market with large competitors such as IDEMIA and Thales as well as Chinese sensor suppliers; Fingerprint Cards has lost most of the mobile market. The algorithm and license business is niche.
mfn.se
−4

Price

Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−2 of −35

Multiples vs own history
With 268.7m shares the market cap is approx. SEK 139m vs total pro forma revenue of approx. SEK 156m (2025): P/S approx. 0.9 vs 1.1–6.6 in 2021–2025, and EV/sales approx. 0.2–0.3 after the share issue. Cheap, but with no earnings and with untested pro forma figures.
stockanalysis.com
−2

Cracks

Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−19 of −35

Integration and synergies
The plan requires at least 45m SEK of annual synergies (29% of pro forma revenue) and approx. 25m SEK of restructuring costs, primarily in 2026. Two loss-making companies must be merged under one management in Lund; pro forma EBITDA of 19–26m SEK is adjusted.
mfn.se
−7
Dilution
The share count has risen from about 77m to 268.7m in a year (+247%) via merger and issue; in addition there are TO2 options (about 8.8m shares at SEK 0.47) and employee programs. The price has fallen 81% over a year.
inderes.fi
−6
Market and customers
Fingerprint Cards' sensor business has been in decline for years under Chinese price competition, and Precise's algorithm revenue for mobile/PC is falling. Revenue in both companies is small and project-driven.
inderes.fi
−6

Plus

Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15

Net cash after share issue
The rights issue raised 100 m SEK gross (August 2026), guaranteed by, among others, DNB Bank and Schonfeld; together with both companies' cash this equals about 70–80% of the market cap, and both companies had positive operating cash flow in H1.
inderes.fi
+3
Commercial validation
BioMatch approved by MOSIP (digital ID platform used by several countries, June 2026) and a new distribution agreement for India and Vietnam (September 2026).
precisebiometrics.com
+1

Caveats

What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.

Penny analysis (Under 3 kr). IMPORTANT: Stockanalysis uses old figures. The merger with Fingerprint Cards was registered 15/7-2026 (68.27m new shares), and the rights issue (121.95m shares at 0.82 SEK) was completed in August, so there are now 268.7m shares (incl. 1.085m C shares) vs stockanalysis' 145.65m. Market cap checked: 268.7 × 0.516 SEK = 139m SEK ≈ 91m DKK, which matches Nordnet's 92m DKK (stockanalysis shows 74m SEK). All financial figures (revenue 68.8m TTM, cash 18.9m at 30/6) are for Precise alone; Fingerprint Cards is included only from Q3 2026. Cash after the issue (approx. 110m SEK) is an estimate: Precise 18.9 + FPC 18.2 (31/3) + 100 gross − issue costs and bridge loan; not confirmed in a report. No stockanalysis forecast page (404). Biometrics does not fit the list perfectly; chose 'Software, cloud & internet' as the closest (algorithms, licences and ID software).