Rankings Commodities & uranium Oroco Resource
Oroco Resource
50
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Funding−8
- Project quality and studies−7
Strengths
- Insider buying+3
- Resource growth+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 2.14 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 696m
- Cash runway
- 8 months
- Cash / debt
- 13.9 / 0.2m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +29%
Bull case
Updated resource and PFS confirm a large, low-grade copper project with approx. US$1.5bn NPV at higher copper prices, and a larger producer (Hudbay, Teck or a Japanese offtaker) comes in. At 0.2–0.3x of the attributable NPV (approx. US$1.3bn) the project is worth C$350–550m – approx. 2.5–3.5x today's market value.
Bear case
The copper price falls, security in Sinaloa worsens, or Mexico halts new open-pit mines; cash runs out around the turn of the year, and an issue at C$0.25-0.30 dilutes a further 25-40%. The stock could fall back toward P/B 0.9-1.0 (C$0.30), about -35%.
Catalysts
- Oct 2026Annual accounts for 2025/26 (expected 6/10-2026) with cash and plan for PFSgradual stockanalysis.com
- Q4 2026 (ongoing)Remaining phase 2 analyses from South Zone and start of drilling in Pillar Zonegradual orocoresourcecorp.com
- UndatedUpdated resource estimate and pre-feasibility study (the company only writes 'on pace')binary orocoresourcecorp.com
Risk of going to zerolow-medium - a large defined resource, 87% ownership and almost no debt make zero unlikely, but the project may stand still for years while shareholders are diluted.
Next financingCash of C$13.9m at 31/5-2026 lasts about 7-8 months at C$5-6m per quarter (phase 2 drilling and PFS work), i.e. to around the turn of 2026/27. New issue likely in Q4 2026-Q1 2027, probably tied to the resource update; warrants at C$0.53 can bring up to C$16m if the price rises above the strike. Construction (US$1.1bn) requires a strategic partner.
Warrants & convertibles30.3m warrants at C$0.53 (expiring 15/1-2029, listed as OCO.WT) from the January issue; warrants from the 2025 placements (units at C$0.25–0.30 and US$0.20) are not counted; 7.05m options issued January 2026. No convertibles; debt only C$0.18m (leasing).
Insiders, last 12 monthsPurchase: director Faysal Rodriguez 5m shares at C$0.20 (about C$1.0m) in November 2025. Chairman Craig Dalziel previously bought for C$2.2m at C$0.26 (date not verified). No sales found.
Largest ownersCraig Dalziel about 6.9%, Faysal Rodriguez about 2.0%; insiders in total about 10.8%, institutions under 1% (MarketScreener/stockanalysis).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. C$150m (approx. DKK 700m). (2) Hot theme: yes – copper. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – new resource and PFS, but undated. (4) Major partner: no – no strategic partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – cash lasts under a year. (6) Price near the bottom: partial – still far below the 2022 level (C$1.26), but +44% since May.
Why this asymmetryLow EV vs NPV, insider buying and a clear study path give real upside if the copper price holds. But US$1.1bn in capex, low-grade ore, Sinaloa security and cash that lasts less than a year make dilution almost certain before any value is realized.
How the score is built
From 100 to 50, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.36 CAD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- +1%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−20 of −30
- −10MarginNo revenue; operating loss −C$5.6m and net loss −C$6.9m in the fiscal year to May 2026, FCF −C$12.2m (ROE −7%, counted only here).
- −7Project quality and studiesOnly a PEA (2024): after-tax NPV8 US$1.48bn and IRR 22.2%, but low-grade porphyry (0.33% Cu indicated, 0.31% inferred), initial capex of US$1.1bn and a 22.6-year life; about half the tonnage is inferred. No PFS yet.
- −3Capital allocationThe share count has risen from 193m (2021) to 326m through a long series of small issues (C$0.25–0.30 and US$0.20 in 2025), before the big bought deal in January 2026; one placement was cancelled in July 2025.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35
- −6Valuation vs history and NPVP/B 1.40 vs 0.95 (2025), 1.21 (2024), 2.08 (2023) and 3.51 (2022) – in the middle of the range. EV approx. CAD 137m (approx. US$100m) equals under 0.1x the attributable PEA NPV, which is typical for a low-grade PEA project in Mexico without financing; the price has risen 44% since May.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−23 of −35
- −8FundingInitial capex of US$1.1bn is approx. 10x market cap, and cash was C$13.9m at 31/5-2026 vs spending of C$5–6m per quarter during the phase 2 drilling. Construction requires a large partner or massive dilution.
- −4DilutionThe share count rose about 29% over a year (252 to 326m); bought deal in January 2026 of 60.5m units at C$0.38 with 30.3m warrants at C$0.53 (expiry January 2029), and 7.05m new options in January 2026.
- −7Jurisdiction and securityThe project is located in Choix, Sinaloa – the cartels' core area – and drilling has been temporarily halted for security reasons during military operations. A new large open-pit mine in Mexico must go through a tightened permitting process after the 2023 mining reform.
- −2ManagementCEO Richard Lock stepped down 30/4-2026 after a short time; Charles Cryer joined 16/6-2026 – the third chief executive in a short time, in the middle of the PFS work.
- −2Metal priceWith 0.33% Cu and a long life, project economics are highly sensitive to the copper price; the value is effectively an option on copper.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Insider buyingDirector Faysal Rodriguez bought 5m shares at C$0.20 (about C$1m) in November 2025, and chairman Craig Dalziel has previously bought for C$2.2m at C$0.26; insiders own about 11%.
- +2Resource growthPhase 2 drilling in South Zone gives long intercepts, including 369 m at 0.45% CuEq from surface and mineralization 90-200 m below the current pit limit (10/9-2026).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Canada). Pure exploration/development with no revenue; fiscal year ends 31/5, and the latest figures on stockanalysis are as of 31/5-2026. Market cap is about C$150m (about DKK 696m) at 326m shares × C$0.46 – Nordnet's DKK 489m is outdated. The PEA is from August 2024 (copper price assumptions not checked), and half of the resource is inferred. Ownership in Santo Tomás: net 87% of the core concessions and 80% of the surrounding ones. No date for an updated resource or PFS. Mexico's policy for new open pit mines has not been investigated in detail. No analyst coverage (forecast 404).
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