Rankings Semiconductors Qualcomm
Qualcomm
67
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−6
- Loss of customer (Apple)−6
- Margin and growth−5
Strengths
- Growth outside handsets+2
- Dividend history+1
- Pricing power+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 67, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 162.08 USD
- Median analyst target
- 180.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +11.1%
- Analysts
- 37
- Target range
- 100.00 – 400.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −10%
- P/E (trailing)
- 18.9
- Forward P/E
- 17.5
- PEG
- 2.84
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−10 of −30
- −5Margin and growthTTM revenue of $44.1bn is the same as in FY22 ($44.2bn), while the operating margin has fallen from 33.5% to 23.7% and ROIC from 62% to 26%. Analysts expect a decline in revenue (-3%) and EPS (-13%) in FY26 and only about 2% annual EPS growth over three years: neither bigger nor stronger.
- −3Capital allocationBuybacks of $10.4bn and dividends of $3.8bn (TTM) exceed FCF of $10.4bn by about $3.8bn, and net debt has risen from $2.1bn (FY24) to $7.0bn. Stock-based compensation of $3.2bn (31% of FCF) eats a large part of the buyback.
- −2Future segmentThe data center push (CPUs, AI accelerators) has no documented revenue yet; Meta is the first customer for the Dragonfly C1000 CPU. QCT gross margin has fallen below the historical range of 48-50% due to rising costs for wafers, packaging and memory.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 18.6 vs 9.5-15.7 in FY21-FY25, EV/EBITDA 16.2 vs 8.7-16.0 and P/S 4.25 vs 3.1-4.9. The stock trades at the top of its own range, even though earnings are expected to fall.
- −1FCF yieldFCF yield 5.6% (P/FCF 18) vs 5.0-8.2% in FY21-FY25; FCF is expected to fall to about $10.3bn in FY26 from $12.8bn.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−12 of −35
- −6Loss of customer (Apple)Qualcomm's share of modems in the new iPhones is below 20% and falling faster than expected; revenue from Apple is expected to fall about 50% from the September to the December quarter, and FY27 Apple revenue will come in below the earlier estimate of just over $2bn.
- −4Weak guidance and handset declineHandset revenue fell 20% to $5.1bn in Q3 FY26 because high memory prices push consumers towards mid-range phones. Q4 guidance for adjusted EPS of $2.05-2.25 was about 9% below consensus of $2.36-2.38, and the stock fell 7%.
- −1Litigation (Arm)The jury in Delaware found on 13 Oct 2026 that Arm breached the licence agreement, but awarded only $2 in damages; the royalties question lies with the judge, and Arm's appeal of the first case (Nuvia) is still pending. The conflict with Qualcomm's most important IP supplier is not over.
- −1Analyst confidenceConsensus is 'Hold' among 37 analysts, and several have price targets below the price (JLPascual $160, Bernstein $165 in Sep 2026).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+4 of +15
- +2Growth outside handsetsAutomotive revenue reached a record $1.6bn (+61%) and IoT $1.83bn (+9%) in Q3 FY26; non-handset QCT grew 28%.
- +1Dividend history22 consecutive years of dividend increases; the dividend ($3.68 per share, 2.1%) equals 38% of FCF.
- +1Pricing powerQualcomm raised prices across its entire product line effective 1 Sep 2026 to offset higher input costs.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Q4 FY26 (the September quarter) reports on 4 Nov 2026 and is not included. FY25 net income ($5.5bn) is depressed by a one-off tax charge; forward P/E is therefore used in T2 instead of trailing. The QTL licensing business, the Chinese authorities' investigations (SAMR) and insider trading have not been examined; the score is an upper bound on those points. Management's target of $40bn non-handset revenue in FY29 is a target, not guidance, and earns no points. 13F purchases earn no points.
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