Rankings Transport & logistics Randstad
Randstad
65
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin and ROIC−6
- Quality of growth and the segment of the future−4
- Multiples vs own history−3
Strengths
- Turn in growth+2
- Cost discipline+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 65, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 40.63 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 37.75 EUR
- Upside to median
- −7.1%
- Analysts
- 18
- Target range
- 24.00 – 60.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- +20%
- P/E (trailing)
- 20.9
- Forward P/E
- 14.8
- PEG
- 1.67
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−12 of −30
- −6Margin and ROICOperating margin 2.3% (TTM) vs 4.2% in 2022 and gross margin 18.4% vs 20.9%; ROIC 6.4% vs 15–17% in 2021–2022 and below a WACC of 7.9%. The company has become weaker, not just cyclically hit: the gross margin fell a further 0.7 pp in Q2 2026, even as revenue grew.
- −4Quality of growth and the segment of the futureRevenue has fallen from 27.6bn (2022) to EUR 23.0bn (TTM); Randstad Digital, the segment that was meant to lift the mix, has shrunk from 3.2 to 2.5bn since 2023 and fell another 4% in Q2, and Monster has been closed. Q2 growth came from low-margin large customers in Operational.
- −2Capital allocationNet debt has risen from EUR 0.4bn (2021) to 1.8bn after buybacks of about 0.5bn in 2023–2024 close to the peak, and the dividend has been cut from EUR 2.85 (2022) to EUR 1.62 per share; debt/EBITDA 2.6 vs about 1 before the downturn.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−5 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 13.2 vs 11.2–13.0 in 2021–2025 (the highest in the period) after +37% in 90 days; EV/EBITDA 10.2 vs 9.0–13.3 and P/B 1.59 vs 1.42–2.25. The market has already priced in a cyclical recovery.
- −2PeersForward P/E 13.2 and EV/EBITDA 10.2 vs Adecco (9.8 and 7.5) with a similar margin (2.8%) and ROIC (6.6%); in line with ManpowerGroup (13.7 and 9.4). No discount despite weaker margin development.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−7 of −35
- −2Margin pressure and customer mixThe underlying gross margin fell to 18.2% from 18.9% in Q2: 40–50 bp from mix towards large customers (US, Italy, Spain), 10 bp from a new Dutch collective agreement, plus idle capacity in Digital and sickness absence in Europe. The stock fell about 3% on results day for that reason.
- −2AI and structural demandAccording to management, AI and automation cut recruitment costs by about 50%, and Digital (IT consultants) has fallen for three years; that squeezes both the price of Randstad's service and demand for IT and office staffing.
- −2Macro and home marketThe Netherlands fell 1% organically after the new collective agreement and is stabilising at a lower level, and perm fees are still lower than last year; the recovery rests on the US and a few European markets and is sensitive to a new labour-market slowdown.
- −1Recurring one-off costsIntegration and one-off costs of 22m in Q2 (35m a year earlier) recur quarter after quarter; reported EBITA (160m) is about 12% below the underlying figure (182m).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Turn in growthOrganic growth 1.9% in Q2 (consensus about 1.0%), US +5%, Germany +4%, Spain +11% and France back in growth; underlying EBITA +8% organic to EUR 182m and margin 3.1%.
- +1Cost disciplineOperating costs fell 3% y/y, and the recovery ratio has been above 80% over four quarters; management is targeting a further EUR 10–15m of quarterly improvement from the new operating model.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
A cyclical staffing company: multiples are measured on trough earnings, so the forward P/E looks high, while the FCF yield (10%) is lifted by released working capital as revenue fell – neither is used uncritically. The trailing P/E of 19.9 is on reported EPS of 1.78; the forward P/E of 13.2 is on adjusted EPS (2.58 for 2026), and the gap is due to recurring integration and one-off costs. Stockanalysis' EPS growth of 320% is a base-effect artefact from 2024 (the Monster write-down and more). The stock has risen about 37% in 90 days from a 52-week low of EUR 21.30; targets range from 24 (Barclays, Sell) to 60 and are not used as findings. Insiders own 6.7% (the founding Goldschmeding family); the voting structure with preferred shares and a foundation has not been examined. Staffing does not fit the industry list; placed under Transport & logistics as the closest (logistics and industry are the largest customer groups in Operational). Next report 21 Oct 2026.
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