Rankings Software, cloud & internet Rekor Systems
Rekor Systems
49
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−8
- Capital allocation−6
- Going concern and liquidity−6
Strengths
- New state contracts+3
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 2.43 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 334m
- Cash runway
- 10 months
- Cash / debt
- 9.8 / 26.6m USD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +29%
Bull case
The notes are refinanced without heavy dilution, H2 2026 turns EBITDA-positive, and new state contracts (South Carolina 22+ m, Oregon) lift growth to 20-30%. At USD 65-70m revenue in 2027 and P/S 2-3 (historical level), market cap becomes USD 130-200m vs about 51m today = 2.5-4x.
Bear case
The refinancing of 15m USD does not succeed on acceptable terms, and the company must do a deep issue after a reverse split (e.g. 50–100% more shares), or the creditors take over. Delisting to OTC after the Nasdaq deadline makes the stock untradeable on Nordnet. The price could fall 50–90%.
Catalysts
- 26 Oct 2026Nasdaq deadline for USD 1; application for 180 more days or decision on a reverse splitbinary tipranks.com
- 2026-11-12 (estimated)Q3 report: test of the target of positive adjusted EBITDA in H2 2026gradual stockanalysis.com
- 15 Dec 2026Maturity of the 15 m USD Series A Prime Revenue Sharing Notes (13.25%) – refinancing or issuebinary sec.gov
Risk of going to zerohigh – going concern qualification, debt of USD 15m maturing in 2.5 months against cash of 9.8m, and the Nasdaq deadline 26/10 cannot be met without a reverse split
Next financingCash of USD 9.8m at 30/6 and operating spending of 2.4–3.8m per quarter give approx. 10 months on operations alone, but USD 15m in Prime Revenue Sharing Notes already fall due on 15/12-2026 – more than the entire cash. The real timing is therefore the next 2–3 months: refinancing (expensive debt), an issue or both, probably after a reverse split. Management is aiming for positive adjusted EBITDA in H2 2026.
Warrants & convertibles12.9m warrants (strike and expiry not investigated), 0.36m options and 2.4m RSUs = 15.6m potentially dilutive shares (approx. 11%). No convertible loans. The ATM program from 2025 has been completed (18.9m shares for USD 22.4m net). The CEO received 1m shares in April 2026.
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo insider purchases found (Form 4 not reviewed in detail); the CEO received 1m fully vested shares as compensation in April 2026. Insiders own c. 3.5%.
Largest ownersNot examined in detail; institutions own c. 34% and insiders c. 3.5% (stockanalysis).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. USD 51m. (2) Hot theme: partial – AI and traffic safety, but not a hyped area. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes – refinancing, Nasdaq decision and EBITDA break-even within 3 months. (4) Major partner: no – only public-sector customers, no strategic partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – the debt matures in December. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −78% in a year, RSI 23.
Why this asymmetryOperations are close to break-even with a 58% gross margin and new contracts, so a successful refinancing could give 2–4x. But the debt maturity in December and the Nasdaq deadline make deep dilution or delisting more likely than not.
How the score is built
From 100 to 49, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.34 USD
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −87%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−22 of −30
- −8MarginThe gross margin is healthy (58% TTM), but the operating margin is −37% TTM, and the TTM loss is USD 21.8m on 49.8m in revenue. Q2 2026 showed progress (operating margin −20%, adjusted EBITDA −1.2m), but the company has never made money.
- −5Quality of growthRevenue grew only 2% in Q2 2026 and 5% in 2025 after earlier 30–75% a year. Recurring revenue grew 14% to 6.7m, but Q2 missed expectations.
- −3MoatLicense plate recognition and traffic AI is a competitive market with larger players (Flock Safety, Motorola, Verra Mobility); customers are public tenders where price weighs heavily.
- −6Capital allocationThe share count rose 29% over a year, including via an ATM program that issued 18.9m shares for USD 22.4m net (completed August 2025). There are 12.9m warrants outstanding, and the net losses in 2021–2025 add up to about USD 250m.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−4 of −35
- −4Multiples vs own history and peersP/S 1.02 and EV/revenue 1.35 vs P/S 3–6.6 in 2023–2025. Cheap vs its own history, but net debt and the going concern qualification explain the discount; there is no earnings or FCF to measure on.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−22 of −35
- −6Going concern and liquidity10-Q for Q2 2026: 'substantial doubt' about going concern; cash is USD 9.8m (16.6m at year-end), and working capital is negative at 6.6m.
- −6Debt maturity December 2026USD 15m Series A Prime Revenue Sharing Notes with 13.25% interest mature 15/12-2026 – more than all the cash. The company is 'evaluating refinancing options', but nothing has been agreed.
- −5Listing riskNasdaq notice 27/4-2026; deadline 26/10-2026 for 10 days above USD 1, which cannot be reached at USD 0.37. The company can seek 180 more days in exchange for a promise of a reverse split (at least approx. 1:3); otherwise OTC, where Nordnet does not trade.
- −2Public customers and concentrationThe customers are states and municipalities with budget and tender risk; one customer accounted for 13% of revenue in H1 2026.
- −3Price risk and short interestThe price has fallen 78% over 52 weeks and 36% over four weeks, RSI 23, Altman Z-score -3.4, and 11% of shares are sold short (8.8 days to cover).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+3 of +15
- +3New state contractsSelected for a 7-year state contract with South Carolina DOT worth over USD 22m (August 2026) and intent to award from Oregon DOT (1.4m over 5 years, 30/9-2026); order backlog of 23.7m, and operating spending has fallen to 2.4m per quarter.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
AI software for traffic and public safety (license plate recognition, traffic data, Rekor Command) sold to states and municipalities; no analysts on stockanalysis (forecast 404); strike and expiry of 12.9m warrants not investigated; Form 4 insider trades not reviewed in detail; whether Nasdaq grants 180 more days after 26/10-2026 is unresolved; refinancing terms for the USD 15m notes are unknown
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