Rankings Defence, aerospace & space RTX
RTX
65
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−16
- Execution (GTF engine)−7
- Insider trading−4
Strengths
- Order book and diversified base+3
- Estimates+2
- Debt reduction+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 65, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 202.79 USD
- Median analyst target
- 235.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +15.9%
- Analysts
- 24
- Target range
- 200.00 – 250.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +14%
- P/E (trailing)
- 33.0
- Forward P/E
- 26.1
- PEG
- 2.17
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 2 findings−3 of −30
- −2ROICROIC 9.4% TTM, rising from 4.7% (2023), 6.8% (2024) and 8.4% (2025), but still low in absolute terms and below Northrop (15%) – the balance sheet carries large goodwill from the UTC merger.
- −1Quality of growthPratt & Whitney grew 17% organically, driven by 25% more aftermarket, largely GTF shop visits caused by its own fault; Pratt's adjusted margin is only 8.3% (8.0% a year earlier), and new engines (OE) are guided down because parts are diverted to repairs.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−16 of −35
- −16Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 25.5 vs 16.3–28.4 in FY21–25 (median 19.8, i.e. about 29% above); trailing P/E 33.0; EV/EBITDA 17.8 vs 13.9–19.2; P/FCF about 29 on guided FCF (the TTM figure of 22 is inflated by working capital). Markedly more expensive than Northrop (forward 17.3).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−17 of −35
- −3
- −7Execution (GTF engine)The powder-metal defect in the PW1100G keeps AOG levels elevated through 2026; RTX paid about $1bn in compensation in 2025. In March 2026 Airbus filed damage claims for delivery failures (hundreds of aircraft without engines), and ITA Airways is claiming €150m. Rate 75 has been pushed to the end of 2027.
- −4Insider tradingAbout $47m sold in 2026 and no purchases: CEO Calio $15.3m and CFO Mitchill $8.8m (19/2), the general counsel $3.1m + 4.5m (Feb and 18/8) and the head of Collins $3.0m (24/7). About $10.5m since the end of July.
- −1Compliance and governanceTwo deferred prosecution agreements (DPAs) with the DOJ from October 2024 and a consent agreement on export controls are still in force, with monitoring.
- −2MacroThe stock has fallen about 16% since August on valuation, rotation out of defence and de-escalation around the Strait of Hormuz; price targets cut on 23/9. Civil aerospace (Collins and Pratt, about 2/3 of revenue) is cyclical.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+6 of +15
- +3Order book and diversified baseRecord backlog of $289bn (+22%; $170bn civil, $119bn defence), about 3 years of revenue spread across three segments; on 28/9 came a multi-year AMRAAM contract worth up to $20.7bn.
- +2EstimatesGuidance raised on all three lines in Q2: revenue $95–96bn (from 92.5–93.5), adjusted EPS $7.10–7.25 (from 6.70–6.90) and FCF $8.50–8.75bn.
- +1Debt reductionDebt/EBITDA 2.37 vs 4.55 in 2023; gross debt reduced from $45.6bn to 38.9bn. On the other hand no buybacks and +0.9% more shares.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The GTF powder metal problem: elevated AOG throughout 2026, Airbus compensation claims from March 2026, about $1bn in annual compensation. TTM FCF ($11.4bn) is inflated by working capital; use guidance of $8.5–8.75bn. The share is −16% since August; Q3 comes in October.
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