Rankings Software, cloud & internet Smart Eye
Smart Eye
56
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−8
- Debt and financing−7
- Capital allocation−6
Strengths
- Order book and broad customer base+3
- Insider buying+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 56, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 52.15 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- −38%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 8.4
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−21 of −30
- −8MarginThe gross margin is 88–91%, and EBITDA came to 54m in H1 2026. But EBIT is −98m TTM (−20%) and net income −130m, because amortisation of capitalised development (115m) and interest weigh. There have been losses every year (−173m in 2025).
- −4Quality of growthAutomotive grew 128% organically in Q2 (93m vs 42m), driven by the EU's DMS requirements (applying to all new cars from 7/7-2026), which is a one-off lift in penetration. Behavioral Research fell (48m vs 50m). Redeye assesses that the realised market share in Europe is lower than expected.
- −6Capital allocationThe company capitalises about SEK 127m a year in development (26% of sales), so FCF after development is about −126m TTM. The losses are financed with issues (478m in 2021, 295m in 2023 and 142m in 2024), a bond loan of 300m and acquisitions against shares (Sightic). The share count is +4.6% in a year, and ROIC is −3.7%.
- −3MoatThe company has 379 design wins (175 in production) at 24 OEMs and a remaining lifetime order value of over SEK 7.6bn. That is a strong position, but competition from Seeing Machines, Cipia, Tobii and Mobileye/Valeo and Chinese DMS suppliers presses the price per car.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−6 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales is 4.7 vs 6.3-9.9 in 2023-2025 and 4.3 in 2022. P/B is 1.45 vs 1.4-2.3. It is at the low end of the company's own history after a price drop of 40% in a year.
- −4Peers and absolute levelEV of about SEK 2.27bn (incl. net debt of 298m) is 4.7x sales and about 21x annualized EBITDA from Q2 (about 108m). EBITDA is, however, lifted by capitalized development, and EV/EBIT and P/E are negative. The price is below Redeye's fair value of SEK 88, but Redeye has cut EBITDA-minus-capex by about 50%.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−15 of −35
- −7Debt and financingNet debt is SEK 298m: a bond loan of 300m (STIBOR + 7%, maturity December 2028) and a credit facility with 1% monthly interest and latest maturity in October 2026. Cash is 86m (118m incl. facilities). With FCF after development of approx. −25m per quarter the runway is approx. 1 year.
- −5Execution and disappointmentThe stock fell 26% on the Q2 report because Automotive disappointed. Redeye cut sales estimates by about 17% and EBITDA-capex by about 50% and lowered fair value from 120 to DKK 88. Management's own expectations have been too high several times.
- −3The car market and OEM dependenceRoyalties follow car production and depend on few OEMs (20 in production). The company itself has warned that weak new-car sales hit licence revenue (the credit extension in 2024). Price negotiations with OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers put pressure on the price per unit.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Order book and broad customer baseThe remaining lifetime order value is over SEK 7.6bn (about 15x TTM sales), and 20 of 24 OEM customers are in production. After the period came a design win of about SEK 100m (mirror-integrated interior sensing for three car models) and an order of SEK 15m.
- +1Insider buyingCEO and founder Martin Krantz bought 2,000 shares at DKK 72.39 (about DKK 145,000) on 11/5-2026. The amount is small, but it is a purchase, not a sale.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
No analysts at stockanalysis (forecast 404). Redeye (fair value SEK 88) covers the company. Stockanalysis: 39.2m shares × SEK 50.35 = SEK 1.97bn ≈ DKK 1,300m, c. 4% below Nordnet's DKK 1,360m. Stockanalysis' FCF (+0.7m) is before capitalised development costs (127m TTM). Including them, FCF is c. −126m. The industry is chosen as 'Software, cloud & internet' (licence and royalty model). The alternative is 'Cars & auto parts', because c. 2/3 of revenue follows car production. Forward P/E of 8 at stockanalysis is judged unreliable. Short data not found.
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