Rankings Food, drinks & restaurants SalMar
SalMar
56
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−8
- Margin and ROIC−5
- Resource rent tax and regulation−5
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Debt reduction+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 56, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 599.00 NOK
- Median analyst target
- 620.00 NOK
- Upside to median
- +3.5%
- Analysts
- 12
- Target range
- 535.00 – 700.00 NOK
- 52-week change
- +2%
- P/E (trailing)
- 24.5
- Forward P/E
- 16.8
- PEG
- 0.50
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−13 of −30
- −5Margin and ROICOperating margin 15.7% TTM and 12.5% in 2025 vs 34.1% in 2023 and 24.6% in 2021–2022; ROIC 7.9% vs 15.4% in 2021 and only just above a WACC of 7.1%.
- −2MoatSalmon is a commodity, and SalMar is a price taker. Operational EBIT per kg fell from NOK 25.1 in Q1 to 15.1 in Q2 2026, because most was harvested in June, when prices were lowest.
- −2Quality of growthThe improvement in 2026 is a recovery after a weak 2025: Central Norway earned only NOK 7m in Q2 2025 vs 426m now. Revenue has only grown from NOK 27.9bn (2023) to 30.0bn TTM, while operating profit has halved from 9.5bn to 4.7bn.
- −2Future segmentIcelandic Salmon lost NOK 35m in Q2 (−97m a year earlier) because of a high cost level, and the offshore farming bet (Ocean Farm 1) earns only NOK 45m. The growth platforms outside Norwegian coastal licences have not yet proven their profitability.
- −2Capital allocationDividends of NOK 2.94bn in 2025 vs FCF of 1.44bn and 4.61bn in 2024 vs FCF of 3.59bn, i.e. above FCF and debt-funded. At the same time the share count has risen 2.5% in a year, and the dividend has been cut 55%.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−8 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 17.4 vs 14.8–16.5 in 2022–2025 (forward vs forward); EV/EBITDA 15.8 vs 8.1–22.4 and P/B 4.1 vs 2.3–4.6 (upper part). A premium to Mowi (forward P/E 15.4, EV/EBITDA 8.1) despite higher debt and less diversification.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−18 of −35
- −4Salmon price and macroThe export price for fresh salmon was NOK 71.4/kg in week 38 of 2026 and reached NOK 48–50/kg in summer 2025, the lowest in four years. Higher supply and a strong NOK could squeeze price achievement again.
- −5Resource rent tax and regulationAlmost the whole harvest is Norwegian and pays resource rent tax (effectively 25%) on top of 22% corporate tax; only the five largest farmers are above the NOK 70m basic deduction. The Icelandic subsidiary pays a farming levy 3–4 times the Norwegian one and faces an unresolved new aquaculture law.
- −4DebtNet interest-bearing debt NOK 19.1bn (NIBD/EBITDA 2.6x according to the company); total debt has risen from NOK 6.4bn (2021) to 21.9bn, and interest cover is only 3.4x. Pre-tax profit was NOK 565m in Q2 vs operational EBIT of 1.24bn.
- −3Competition law (EU cartel case)SalMar is among the six Norwegian farmers that the European Commission accused in January 2024 of illegally exchanging price and volume data in 2011–2019; a fine of up to 10% of revenue is possible.
- −2BiologyBiological problems left Central Norway with operating profit of only NOK 7m in Q2 2025; results can swing sharply from year to year with the biology.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Raised guidance2026 harvest guidance raised by 20,000 t to 350,000 t (+16% y/y) after a record harvest of 81,800 t in Q2.
- +1Debt reductionNet interest-bearing debt reduced by NOK 1.1bn in Q2 to 19.1bn, and leverage has fallen to 2.6x.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Earnings follow the salmon price (cyclical). The trailing P/E of 36 is affected by low earnings in 2025 and negative biomass fair value adjustments; forward figures are used in T2. The Witzøe family controls the company via Kverva, although stockanalysis only shows 2% insider ownership. The EU cartel case is undecided according to our research. The reason for the rise in share count (+2.5%) has not been examined.
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