Rankings Defence, aerospace & space SpaceX
SpaceX
36
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Absolute valuation−25
- Margin−9
- Capital allocation−7
Strengths
- Moat – Starlink and launches+3
- Net cash+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 36, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 136.37 USD
- Median analyst target
- 247.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +81.5%
- Analysts
- 39
- Target range
- 70.00 – 800.00 USD
- 52-week change
- –
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 45.1
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−20 of −30
- −9MarginOperating margin −14.9% and net margin −38.6% TTM; net loss USD 8.9bn (Q2 2026: −541m). The AI segment lost USD 1.3bn in operating profit in Q2, and Starlink is the only profitable segment.
- −4Quality of growthRevenue +122% TTM and +92% in Q2, but most of it was bought via the merger with xAI and X; organically Starlink grows 66% with falling ARPU, while advertising revenue has fallen from USD 2.3bn (2023) to 1.8bn (2025).
- −7Capital allocationCapex USD 42.4bn TTM (184% of revenue) and FCF −USD 32.5bn, mainly AI data centres; plus the purchase of Anysphere (Cursor) for about USD 60bn and xAI's spending of up to USD 1bn a month.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−31 of −35
- −25Absolute valuationMarket cap USD 2,330bn: P/S 101 (forward 27), forward P/E 110, EV/EBITDA 385 and P/B 17.8 for a company with negative earnings and negative FCF. The price requires many years of perfect execution.
- −6PeersDefense and aerospace companies typically trade at EV/EBITDA 15–30 and even expensive AI/platform stocks at forward P/S 10–20; SpaceX is far above both groups.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−16 of −35
- −5GovernanceThree share classes: Musk has approx. 42% of the capital but approx. 85% of the votes via B shares with 10 votes; public A shareholders effectively have no influence, and Musk leads Tesla at the same time.
- −3Lock-up and supplyStaggered lock-up expiries over 180 days; approx. 40% of the shares are freely tradable on 8 Dec. 2026, and Musk's own shares are released in June 2027.
- −3DilutionShare count +41.8% over a year (merger and IPO) and share-based pay of USD 2.7bn TTM.
- −3Regulation – xAIGrok has been under regulatory scrutiny for content moderation and sexualised deepfakes; the risk now comes into a company that also supplies classified Starshield services to the government.
- −2FundingNet borrowing of USD 102bn TTM and interest expenses of USD 2.5bn with negative interest cover (−1.4x); the AI buildout is financed with debt and share issues, not operations.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Moat – Starlink and launchesStarlink has 12m subscribers and had revenue of USD 4.29bn in Q2 (+66%); adjusted EBITDA USD 3.53bn vs an expected 2bn, almost tripled from Q1.
- +1Net cashCash USD 100bn vs debt USD 39.7bn after the IPO (USD 75bn raised); net cash USD 60bn.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Listed on Nasdaq 12 June 2026 (IPO USD 135), so there is no multiple history; T2 is absolute valuation and peers. The figures include xAI and X after the merger in Feb 2026, so the growth is not organic. The Nordnet list showed a price of USD 0 (data error on the line). Starship status and share of government contracts have not been examined
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