Rankings Transport & logistics Surf Air Mobility
Surf Air Mobility
32
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Going concern and default−10
- Capital allocation−8
Strengths
- Better EBITDA outlook+2
- Partner validation+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 32, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.71 USD
- Median analyst target
- 3.88 USD
- Upside to median
- +447.2%
- Analysts
- 5
- Target range
- 1.00 – 12.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −83%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−28 of −30
- −10MarginGross margin 1.6% TTM (gross profit USD 1.7m on 110.7m revenue), operating margin −67% and net loss −112m TTM; adjusted EBITDA −10.5m in Q2 2026.
- −5Quality of growthQ2 revenue +8% to 29.5m: charter (Surf On Demand) +101% to 12.1m, but scheduled flights −19% to 17.4m after closing loss-making routes. Revenue has fallen from 119m (2024) to 107m (2025).
- −8Capital allocationDirect listing in July 2023, 1:7 reverse split in 2024 and a price fall of about 99% since; share count +316% in a year via the GEM share line, directed issues and shares to lenders and Palantir; expensive loans from High Trail, JGB and LamVen.
- −5MoatRegional aviation and charter brokerage have low barriers to entry and face competition from Wheels Up, JSX, Flexjet and many charter brokers; the SurfOS software has only one customer (Wheels Up, up to USD 12m over three years).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−8 of −35
- −2Multiples vs own historyEV/Sales 1.70 vs 1.50-2.80 in 2023-2025 and negative equity (-42.5m); no positive earnings or cash flow to measure against.
- −6PeersEV/Sales 1.70 vs Wheels Up 1.07 (EV 773m, larger fleet and revenue) - expensive for a business with a 1.6% gross margin and going concern.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−29 of −35
- −10Going concern and default10-Q: 'substantial doubt' about the ability to continue; the company is in default on federal excise tax (USD 11.1m including penalties), California property tax (0.9m) and certain debt obligations. Current liabilities approx. 158m vs 18.4m in cash.
- −7Debt maturityNew convertible note of USD 16.9m matures 1/7-2027 (redeemed at 110%, monthly installments of 2-3m from August 2026), new term note of 30m matures 1/1-2028 (12% from January 2027), JGB bonds of 21.6m and LamVen loan of up to 15m; minimum liquidity 5-8m.
- −6DilutionThe share count rose from 73.1 to 119.1m in H1 2026 (21.1m shares to GEM, 13.3m in a directed issue); the new convertible can be converted at USD 1.116, and the LamVen loan at the NYSE minimum price; the GEM line has USD 251m in capacity.
- −4NYSE listingNYSE notice 24/7-2026 (30-day average below USD 1); six-month cure period to about 24/1-2027, reverse split approved at the general meeting 24/7-2026. The GEM listing lapses if the stock is delisted.
- −2Related partiesCo-founder Sudhin Shahani's SRS Ventures receives USD 450,000 a year in advisory fees, and Park Lane (affiliated with a co-founder) provides a credit guarantee behind the notes in exchange for compensation; co-founder Carl Albert gets an advisory contract with a one-off bonus of 0.8m.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Better EBITDA outlook2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance improved about 40% to −USD 30 to −25m; Q3 guidance −7 to −4m on revenue of 35.5–37.5m; charter revenue +101%.
- +1Partner validationExclusive partner for Palantir toward charter operators (Part 135) and first SurfOS contract with Wheels Up of up to USD 12m over three years.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Price USD 0.972 (2/10-2026). 123.6m shares (stockanalysis; 119.1m at 30/6-2026) give a market cap of about USD 120m (about DKK 791m); Nordnet's DKK 929m corresponds to about 145m shares, which fits continued issuance via the GEM equity line and repayment of the convertible note in shares since August - the share count is probably higher than 123.6m. Going concern warning ('substantial doubt') in the Q2 2026 10-Q, defaulted federal excise tax (USD 11.1m) and property tax. NYSE notice 24/7-2026 (price below USD 1), reverse split approved by shareholders. No classic ATM, but an equity line with GEM (USD 251.4m drawn + 72.5m in advance), and the loan terms require at least 30m of ATM/equity line capacity. Analyst price target of USD 4.93 (+407%, 4 analysts) is stale after the 78% price fall. Industry: regional aviation, charter and software (SurfOS), closest to 'Transport & logistics'; cyclical (aviation).
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