Rankings Pharma & medtech Tenaya Therapeutics
Tenaya Therapeutics
42
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−14
- Capital allocation−7
- Nasdaq listing−6
Strengths
- Partner validation+2
- Interim clinical data+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 42, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.36 USD
- Median analyst target
- 3.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +731.0%
- Analysts
- 6
- Target range
- 2.00 – 5.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −75%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−30 of −30
- −14MarginRevenue of only USD 1.3m TTM (collaboration income from Alnylam) vs an operating loss of 82.7m. Q2 2026: R&D 16.6m, G&A 5.4m, net loss 43.4m incl. a 21.8m write-down.
- −5Quality of growthBoth main programmes (TN-201 and TN-401) are in phase 1b with 6–7 patients each; a registration study has not started, and the first possible product is several years out.
- −7Capital allocationThe company built its own gene therapy factory (Union City), but terminated the lease in 2026 and wrote down USD 21.8m plus 1.4m in losses, and now switches to a contract manufacturer. The share count has risen 74% in a year, and the price has fallen from USD 18.95 (2021) to 0.56.
- −4MoatCompetition from Lexeo (LX2020 vs PKP2-ARVC, LX2006) and Rocket Pharmaceuticals (RP-A601 vs PKP2) in gene therapy, and from myosin inhibitors (Bristol Myers' Camzyos, Cytokinetics' aficamten) in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy generally. Gene therapy must be markedly better to beat pills.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−2 of −35
- −1Multiples vs own historyP/B 1.82 vs 0.53–2.81 in 2021–2025; EV USD 52m vs 48–109m at the last three year-ends. Not cheap relative to its own history when cash is being consumed quickly.
- −1Peers and absolute levelEV about USD 52m vs Lexeo 85m and Rocket 22m (both with far larger cash piles of 212 and 284m). The market gives the whole cardiac gene therapy sector a low value; Tenaya is in line with peers.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 6 findings−23 of −35
- −6Nasdaq listingNasdaq notice 28/1-2026 for price below USD 1; the deadline 27/7-2026 was not met, and the share was moved to the Nasdaq Capital Market 31/7-2026 with a new 180-day deadline (approx. 25/1-2027). With a price of USD 0.56 a reverse split is almost unavoidable. This is the second notice in two years (also April 2025).
- −5Dilution, ATM and warrantsShare count +74% over a year after issues in 2025 (including 75m shares in Q1 2025) and December 2025, pre-funded warrants and several series of warrants (exercises in Q2 2026 gave 7.0m shares for USD 4.9m), ATM sales in 2026 and a new 4% evergreen in the share plan with no cap.
- −4Financing of registration studiesCash of USD 78.1m lasts to Q3 2027, but two registration studies in gene therapy typically cost several hundred million USD. The company must therefore raise significantly more capital or find partners before the value can be realized.
- −4Class risk in AAV gene therapyHigh-dose AAV gene therapy saw deaths and clinical holds at other companies in 2025 (including Rocket's RP-A501 and Sarepta's Elevidys), and the FDA has become more cautious. Tenaya's doses (up to 6E13 vg/kg) and immunosuppression are in the same risk zone.
- −3Small datasetsThe positive interim data is based on 6 evaluable patients in MyPEAK-1 and 6 in RIDGE-1 without a control group; the registration path and the FDA's requirements are not yet clarified (update expected in Q4 2026).
- −1Short interest21.6m shares sold short = 10.2% of free float, but 11.7 days to cover due to low dollar turnover.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Partner validationResearch collaboration with Alnylam (April 2026): 10 m USD upfront, reimbursement of research costs and up to 1.1 bn USD in milestones.
- +1Interim clinical dataMyPEAK-1: all 6 evaluable patients had reduced hypertrophy and better symptoms; RIDGE-1: PVC count fell by an average of 64% in all patients. No dose-limiting toxicity, and all have been tapered off immunosuppression.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Price USD 0.564 (2/10-2026). 224.2m shares (30/7-2026) give a market cap of about USD 126m (about DKK 833m); Nordnet's DKK 876m is slightly higher. Pre-funded warrants (USD 0.001) are not included in the share count, so the true market cap is higher. Cash 78.1m at 30/6; Q2 cash flow (-3.6m) was flattered by Alnylam's prepayment of 10m and warrant exercises of 4.9m, underlying spending is about 18-20m per quarter. The Q2 net loss of 43.4m includes a non-cash write-down of 21.8m on the Union City plant. Analyst price targets (USD 2-5, avg. 3.20, +467%; Piper Sandler even at 40) are stale after the price fall and the dilution. No going concern warning (cash to Q3 2027). Number of ordinary warrants and ATM capacity are not tallied in the 10-Q excerpt. Industry: gene therapy for the heart = 'Medicine & medtech'.
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