Rankings Semiconductors Smoltek
Smoltek
42
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Capital allocation−8
- Peers and absolute level−6
Strengths
- Partner validation and demand for capital+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 0.88 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 209m
- Cash runway
- 16 months
- Cash / debt
- 60.0 / 16.4m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +32%
Bull case
A Taiwanese component producer (e.g. in the Yageo circle) or an electrolyser producer signs a licence or development agreement, and the Heraeus test shows that the iridium amount can be reduced markedly. Then the market could price Smoltek as a platform of SEK 1–2bn (3–6x), and TO 9 is exercised at SEK 2.50, so financing is secured into 2028.
Bear case
No customer agreement before February 2027, TO 9 is not exercised, and a new issue at DKK 0.5–0.8 becomes necessary. At the same time the convertible loan can be converted at DKK 0.33 and sold in the market. With a 20-year history without a commercial breakthrough, the share price could fall 50–70%.
Catalysts
- 5 Nov 2026Q3 report: first quarter with the issue money, cash and any customer agreementsgradual mfn.se
- Undated (announced August 2026)3,000-hour durability test of electrolysis electrodes with Heraeusbinary inderes.fi
- 18 Jan – 15 Feb 2027Pricing and exercise of TO 9 (48–68m SEK, only if the price is above approx. 2.19 kr) and deadline for conversion of the convertible loan 31/1binary inderes.se
Risk of going to zeromedium – the share issue gives breathing room for approx. 1–1.5 years, and equity is positive, but the company has no revenue, no permanent CEO and has been dependent on share issues every year
Next financingCash was SEK 1.9m at 30/6; the rights issue added 82m gross in July, so cash is estimated at about 60m after costs and offsetting of loans (not reported). With about 11m of real quarterly spending (incl. capitalized development) that lasts about 16 months, but supplier debt from H1 (working capital -30m) drags it down. The next source is TO 9 in February 2027, which only brings in money if the price is above about kr 2.19; otherwise a new issue is likely in 2027.
Warrants & convertibles27.4m TO 9 warrants (1 share per warrant, strike 80% of VWAP 18–29 January 2027, min. SEK 1.75 and max. 2.50, exercise 1–15 February 2027; yields SEK 48–68m if exercised). Convertible loan of SEK 20m from January 2025, conversion price SEK 0.33, deadline 31/1-2027; approx. 1.4m converted in July, remaining amount not confirmed (debt was 16.4m as of 30/6, which on full conversion equals up to approx. 50m new shares).
Insiders, last 12 monthsNo specific insider purchases or sales found (not reviewed in detail). Insiders own c. 15.6% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersNot quantified. Insiders c. 15.6%, institutions c. 10.9% (stockanalysis, before the issue).
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes, approx. DKK 209m. (2) Hot theme: yes, capacitors for AI chips and iridium reduction in hydrogen electrolysis. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial, the Heraeus test and customer dialogue, but no dated binary result. (4) Major partner: partial, Heraeus collaboration, but no commercial agreement. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no, approx. 16 months, and TO 9 is out of the money. (6) Price near the bottom: no, +158% in a year (but −95% since 2021).
Why this asymmetryThe theme is hot, and one licence agreement can multiply the price, but the stock has already risen sharply without revenue, and the cheap convertible (SEK 0.33) and warrants drag the upside down. The company has promised commercialisation for many years. The downside is limited in the short term by cash, but the dilution risk in 2027 is high.
How the score is built
From 100 to 42, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1.51 SEK
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- +278%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −10MarginRevenue SEK 0.56m vs an operating loss of 32.6m and a net loss of 36.2m (TTM). Revenue was 0 in Q2 2026, and the net loss was 10.9m. Operating margin is about -5,800%.
- −5Quality of growthThere is no commercial growth: revenue has fallen from SEK 8.5m in 2023 to 1.9m in 2024, 0.9m in 2025 and 0 in Q2 2026. The company has developed the carbon nanofibre technology for about 20 years without an actual commercial order.
- −4MoatThe patent portfolio in nanofibres (ultra-thin capacitors for AI chips and electrodes for electrolysis) is real, but without paying customers the commercial advantage is unproven. Customer work is still at the 'intensified dialogue' stage in Taiwan and participation in the Yageo AI conference.
- −8Capital allocationThe share count has risen from about 10m (2022) to 238m (about 25x) via repeated issues with dilution of 59–222% a year. A convertible loan of SEK 20m from January 2025 can be converted at DKK 0.33 per share, i.e. far below the market price.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−9 of −35
- −3Multiples vs own historyP/B is approx. 1.6 after the issue (1.92 at stockanalysis with the old share count) vs 0.75–3.68 in 2021–2025, and a large part of equity is capitalised development costs. The price has risen from DKK 0.39 at the turn of the year to 1.33 (+240%) without new revenue.
- −6Peers and absolute levelA market cap of about SEK 317m (EV about 270m) for a company with no revenue and an annual cash burn of about 40m is pure option pricing. P/S is over 400.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−18 of −35
- −6Funding and dilutionCash was only SEK 1.9m at 30/6 with a current ratio of 0.16 before the issue. The issue brought 82m gross, but 27m TO 9 warrants (strike SEK 1.75-2.50 in February 2027) and the rest of the convertible loan at SEK 0.33 give further dilution.
- −4ManagementThe company has no permanent CEO: the interim CEO's consulting contract expired 31/8, and chairman Oskar Säfström took over as interim CEO on 1/9 while recruitment is under way. It is yet another leadership change in a phase where commercialisation should be accelerating.
- −6Commercial executionThere are no binding customer agreements in semiconductors or hydrogen, only collaborations and tests (Heraeus, the MAXBATT consortium). Revenue has gone towards 0, and the timeline for orders has not been communicated.
- −2Share price riskThe price (DKK 1.33) is below the June issue price of DKK 1.50 per share, so the new shareholders are sitting on a loss, and TO 9 is far out of the money (requires a VWAP of about DKK 2.19). The +158% rise over a year is driven by theme, not by numbers.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Partner validation and demand for capitalCollaboration with Heraeus Precious Metals on electrodes with ultra-low iridium content for electrolysis and a rights issue that was oversubscribed 184% show real interest from a large industrial partner and from investors.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
No analysts at stockanalysis. Market cap matches Nordnet when the new share count is used: 238.3m shares after registration of the rights issue and conversions (July 2026) × SEK 1.33 = SEK 317m ≈ DKK 209m. Stockanalysis still uses 181.7m shares (SEK 243m) and P/B 1.92 from before the issue. Cash after the issue is an estimate (1.9m at 30/6 + 82m gross − costs and set-off of loans), as Q3 only comes 5/11. The remaining amount of the convertible loan (conversion price SEK 0.33), insider trades and the largest owners have not been reviewed in detail. The financial statements PDF could not be read.
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