Rankings Oil & gas Touchstone Exploration
Touchstone Exploration
51
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Going concern and covenants−10
- Margin and ROIC−7
- Capital allocation−7
Strengths
- Operational improvement+1
- Anchor shareholder+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 0.79 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 348m
- Cash runway
- 17 months
- Cash / debt
- 13.0 / 104.4m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +69%
Bull case
The compressor and workovers lift Cascadura, the WD-4 and Baraka wells add oil, and production reaches 5,500-6,000 boe/d. With a netback of around US$25/boe that gives EBITDA of about C$45-55m; at EV/EBITDA of 4 and falling debt, the equity could be worth C$100-130m beyond the debt - market cap C$150-250m, i.e. 2-3x. More requires higher gas prices in Trinidad.
Bear case
Cascadura pressure falls faster than expected, the banks refuse a waiver, and the company must raise money again at C$0.08–0.12 with heavy dilution. With net debt above the market cap and a going concern note, shareholders could in the worst case be left with very little (−60–90%).
Catalysts
- 13 Nov 2026Q3 2026 results (estimated) – first quarter with full compressor effect; status of covenant waiver and going concernbinary stockanalysis.com
- Q4 2026Results from the two-well oil campaign at WD-4 (first well started mid-September 2026; second well paid for by the drilling contractor)gradual ogj.com
- October 2026Workover of Cascadura-3ST1 and recompletion of Cascadura-5 (after a successful solvent squeeze on Cascadura-2ST1)gradual stockhouse.com
Risk of going to zerohigh – going concern note, covenant waiver needed, working capital deficit and net debt larger than market cap; Purebond's support is the only safeguard.
Next financingOperations are right around FCF-neutral (about C$2–3m per quarter in Q4 2025–Q2 2026), but bank repayments of US$14.2m (about C$20m) over the next 12 months give a net burn of about C$2–3m per quarter. With a going concern note, a working capital deficit and a DSCR covenant that requires a waiver for 2026, yet another refinancing or issue (probably via Purebond) is very likely within 6–12 months.
Warrants & convertiblesConvertible bond of US$12.5m (about C$17.7m) maturing August 2028; conversion price not found. Stock options to management. No warrants found from the 2026 issues (26.6m shares in Q2 and 89.8m shares at C$0.13 in July).
Insiders, last 12 monthsPurebond Limited (insider as major shareholder) bought 89,765,000 shares at 0.13 C$ (approx. 11.7m C$) on 24/7-2026 and has also bought off-market. Other insider trades not examined systematically.
Largest ownersPurebond Limited (at least approx. 20% after July 2026; exact share not found); other insiders approx. 3.5%, institutions approx. 4.7% according to stockanalysis.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. C$75m (DKK 350m). (2) Hot theme: no – gas in Trinidad. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – workovers and two WD-4 wells, but no binary game changer. (4) Major partner: partial – Purebond as anchor investor, not an industrial partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – going concern and covenant waiver. (6) Price near the bottom: yes – −32% in a year and −89% since 2021, though +26% in 3 months.
Why this asymmetryThe price is close to the bottom, and an operational improvement could give 2-3x, but debt owns most of the company, the going concern note and the covenant problem make new dilution likely, and there is no single event that can significantly re-rate the stock.
How the score is built
From 100 to 51, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.19 CAD
- Median analyst target
- 0.29 CAD
- Upside to median
- +52.6%
- Analysts
- 4
- Target range
- 0.28 – 0.30 CAD
- 52-week change
- −14%
- P/E (trailing)
- 3.7
- Forward P/E
- 5.1
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−23 of −30
- −7Margin and ROICOperating margin 6% TTM (−3% in 2025, −65% in 2023) and ROIC 1.6%; net income (C$16m TTM) is mainly due to a deferred tax income of about C$13m. FCF has been negative most quarters since 2021 and is only about C$1.4m TTM.
- −5Quality of growthProduction was 4,433 boe/d in Q2 2026 (−5% quarter on quarter). The Cascadura gas field, which was to carry growth, now requires a compressor, solvent squeeze and workovers because reservoir pressure is falling and the wells are choked; revenue fell 20% in 2025, and growth in 2026 comes mainly from higher prices and an acquisition.
- −4Moat and dependenceSmall operator in Trinidad with no moat; 66% of production is natural gas, which is sold via state companies and the Atlantic LNG infrastructure, and maintenance there limited production in Q2 2026.
- −7Capital allocationThe share count has risen from about 211m (2021) to 441m, while the price has fallen from C$1.61 to 0.17; market value has fallen every year 2021–25. Repeated issues at falling prices and debt-financed growth have not created value per share.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −5EV multiples vs peersEV/EBITDA 7.1 and EV/FCF 118, because net debt (about C$92m) is larger than market cap (C$75m). Against its own history the multiples are low (EV/EBITDA 5.3-46 in 2021-25), but other small E&Ps typically trade at 2-4x EBITDA (e.g. PetroTal 2.7).
- −2Earnings quality in multiplesTrailing P/E 3.3 looks cheap, but is based on a tax income; adjusted, operating profit is only approx. CAD 3.6m TTM (EV/EBIT 46).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−20 of −35
- −10Going concern and covenantsThe half-year report contains a note on material uncertainty about going concern; the company must obtain a waiver of the DSCR covenant for 2026, has a working capital deficit of US$28.7m and bank repayments of US$14.2m within 12 months.
- −6DilutionThe share count has risen about 69% in 12 months (261m at Q3 2025 → 441m); in July 2026 Purebond subscribed 89.8m shares at C$0.13 (7 pence), and the money went to redeem a US$8.4m bond. In addition, a US$12.5m convertible bond.
- −3Jurisdiction and infrastructureEverything is in Trinidad and Tobago, where gas sales and prices depend on state counterparties and third-party pipelines/LNG plants; VAT refunds of US$11.1m are outstanding.
- −1Ownership concentrationAfter the July issue Purebond is a dominant owner (at least approx. 20%) and has accounted for most of the recent raises, so the minority shareholders depend on one investor's willingness to refinance.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15
- +1Operational improvementNetback rose 77% to US$24.37/boe in Q2 2026, funds flow almost quadrupled to US$7.1m, and the Cascadura compressor (in operation from 9/7-2026) gave approx. 16.5 MMcf/d gross – above expectations.
- +1Anchor shareholderPurebond has twice in 2026 provided capital (incl. 11.7m C$ in July) and bought shares in the market, which has averted an acute liquidity crisis.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Canada). The company reports in USD; stockanalysis' financial statement tables are in USD, the statistics page in CAD (penny amounts converted at US$1 ≈ C$1.418). Trailing P/E 3.3 is inflated by a tax income of about C$13m, and forward P/E 0.36 on stockanalysis looks like a data error – not used. The conversion price of the convertible bond (US$12.5m, expiring August 2028) and Purebond's total ownership have not been found. Revenue on TSX is small; the main liquidity is on AIM. Reserves (NI 51-101) and insider trades beyond Purebond have not been investigated.
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