Vår Energi
67
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−6
- Price normalisation−5
- Capital allocation−4
Strengths
- Record result and debt reduction+2
- Production growth+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 67, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 56.52 NOK
- Median analyst target
- 58.81 NOK
- Upside to median
- +4.1%
- Analysts
- 15
- Target range
- 44.60 – 69.38 NOK
- 52-week change
- +67%
- P/E (trailing)
- 10.1
- Forward P/E
- 7.7
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−13 of −30
- −3ROIC over the cycleROIC 25.6% TTM on high prices, but only 7.0% (2024), 15.5% (2023) and 13.8% (2025); the net margin is 3.6–12.3% after the Norwegian special tax of 78%.
- −4Capital allocationThe dividend has exceeded earnings and FCF for years: payout ratio 335% (2024), 182% (2023) and 145% (2025); in 2024 FCF was USD 533m vs approx. 1.05bn in dividends, and the difference was borrowed. Now BlueNord is being bought for NOK 12.8bn with new shares and cash.
- −3MoatPure price taker on oil and gas without its own refining or trading; revenue swung from $9.8bn to $6.8bn (−30%) from 2022 to 2023 and has now risen 49% TTM on prices and volume alone.
- −3Future segment100% oil and gas on the Norwegian shelf with approx. 2/3 of revenue from crude oil; no exposure to a low-emission business, and the fields require constant new projects (16 under execution) to maintain production.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−7 of −35
- −6Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 9.4 is at the top of its own history (4.6–9.5 in 2022–2025) at the peak of the price cycle, and P/B is 6.5; the share price is up 44% in a year. EV/EBITDA 1.9 vs 1.3–2.1.
- −1PeersForward P/E 9.4 vs Aker BP 12.4 and Equinor 9.7; EV/EBITDA 1.9 vs 2.5–2.8. Slightly cheaper than peers, but earnings are closer to the cycle peak.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−11 of −35
- −5Price normalisationConsensus expects revenue down from $13.2bn to $11.6bn (-12%) and EPS from $0.73 to $0.48 (-34%) in 2027, as the high 2026 prices normalize.
- −3Controlling shareholderEni owns about 63% and will own 57.3% after BlueNord; free float is small, and Eni continuously sells non-strategic assets - a possible sell-down is an overhang for the share price.
- −2Acquisitions and dilutionThe BlueNord deal issues 9.05% new shares plus NOK 76.83 in cash per BlueNord share, so existing shareholders own only 90.95% afterwards; the integration of Danish Tyra, Halfdan, Dan and Gorm assets adds a new country and a new operator (TotalEnergies).
- −1LiquidityCurrent ratio 0.90 and quick ratio 0.58; the balance sheet carries high debt relative to equity (debt/equity 3.1, 11.1 at the end of 2025) due to low book equity after large dividends.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Record result and debt reductionRecord CFFO after tax of $2.1bn in Q2; net debt reduced to $3.4bn, gearing 0.4x and liquidity $5.3bn.
- +1Production growthProduction guidance of 390–410 thousand boe/day confirmed with higher production in H2, production efficiency 94%, and the target after BlueNord is approx. 450 thousand boe/day.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Reports in USD, the stock trades in NOK. 2026 earnings are lifted by high oil and gas prices; analysts expect declines in both revenue (−12%) and EPS (−34%) in 2027. The BlueNord merger (9% new shares + cash) has not been completed and is not in the figures. Project costs on Balder X/Castberg have not been verified here (no new overruns in the Q2 report).
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