Rankings Financial data & insurance broking Visa
Visa
70
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A strong score: the model found few serious problems, but analysts see limited upside from here.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−8
- Litigation: DOJ monopoly case (debit)−4
- Regulation: Credit Card Competition Act−3
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Pricing power and diversified customer base+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 70, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 425.51 USD
- Median analyst target
- 450.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +5.8%
- Analysts
- 40
- Target range
- 330.00 – 500.00 USD
- 52-week change
- +25%
- P/E (trailing)
- 34.5
- Forward P/E
- 28.3
- PEG
- 1.97
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−5 of −30
- −2Future segmentAccount-to-account transfers and banks' own solutions are gaining ground: EPI's Wero is live in e-commerce in Germany and Belgium (March 2026), and France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands follow in 2026, with a merchant fee of about 0.7%. Visa is still growing (payment volume +10%, value-added services +34% in Q3), but in the longer term account-to-account transfers pressure the card networks in Europe.
- −2Cost disciplineGAAP operating expenses rose 19% in Q3 FY2026 vs 14% revenue growth, mainly personnel costs. On top came a round of layoffs (mostly tech roles) with a one-off charge of $563m. Operating margin (66.9%) is flat, not rising.
- −1Capital allocationBuybacks (USD 21.7bn) and dividend (USD 5.0bn) totalling USD 26.7bn TTM exceed FCF of USD 21.0bn. Net debt has risen from USD 1.2bn (FY2023) to USD 10.1bn. The share count is falling 2.9% a year, but that is partly debt-financed.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−8 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 27.7 vs 22.2–32.6 in FY2021–25 (average 26.6), i.e. slightly above average. P/FCF 34.9 is the highest in the period (19.1–30.3), because FCF has fallen; EV/EBITDA 23.9 vs 17.1–26.8. Adjusted for litigation provisions and severance, trailing P/E is about 31 vs an average around 29. Mastercard trades at forward P/E 28.9. The price is full for 11–14% growth, and the share price is 18% above the 200-day average.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−12 of −35
- −4Litigation: DOJ monopoly case (debit)The Department of Justice's case on an illegal debit card monopoly (Sherman Act §1 and §2) was not dismissed in 2025. Discovery has been extended to 29/1/2027, and a trial is expected in 2028 with no settlement. Debit is a large part of Visa's US volume, and a settlement could force discounts and exclusivity agreements away.
- −3Regulation: Credit Card Competition ActTrump backed the CCCA on 13/1/2026, and Visa and Mastercard fell at least 4% on the day. The act requires at least two independent networks on credit cards from banks over USD 100bn. The attempt to attach it to a housing bill failed in March, but the Senate majority leader has promised a vote in this session of Congress.
- −2Fee settlement with merchantsThe revised $38bn settlement received preliminary approval on 9/6/2026. It cuts effective credit card interchange by 10 bp for five years, lets merchants refuse expensive cards and add a surcharge, and caps standard cards at 1.25% for eight years. NRF and other trade groups oppose it, and Visa still makes provisions for the MDL case ($237m in Q3).
- −2Cash flowFCF fell 4.8% TTM to $21.0bn, while net income rose about 13%. FCF margin has gone from 60% (FY2023) to 47% (TTM), driven by larger customer incentives and other operating items (−$18.3bn TTM). Earnings and cash flow are moving in different directions.
- −1Insider sellingCEO Ryan McInerney sells continuously under a 10b5-1 plan: 31,455 shares in April, about 31,000 in June–July and 5,875 shares monthly in August–October 2026. He owns only 15,174 shares directly (265,168 via a family trust). There are no insider purchases.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2Raised guidanceVisa raised its full-year expectation for FY2026 in July 2026 after Q3, where revenue grew 14% and adjusted EPS 11% (USD 3.32). Q4 is expected with revenue growth at the high end of low double digits.
- +2Pricing power and diversified customer base71.7bn processed transactions in the quarter (+10%), cross-border volume +13% and value-added services +34% to $3.8bn. Gross margin is 97.7%, and ROIC has risen from 30% (FY2021) to 55%. Visa does not depend on individual customers.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The Q4 results (FY2026) come 27/10 and are not included. The multiple history covers only FY2021–25 (5 years); the 10-year level has not been verified. The DOJ debit card case goes to trial in 2028 at the earliest, and the CCCA may resurface; neither can be priced precisely. GAAP EPS (USD 11.75) is pulled down by litigation provisions and USD 563m in severance, so trailing P/E looks higher than the adjusted figure. The price is 18% above the 200-day average (RSI 72). Insider trading has only been checked for the CEO.
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