Rankings Defence, aerospace & space Volatus Aerospace
Volatus Aerospace
39
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Valuation vs history and peers−20
- Margin−12
- Dilution−7
Strengths
- Net cash+3
- Regulatory approval+2
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 2.51 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 1,844m
- Cash runway
- 38 months
- Cash / debt
- 59.2 / 23.5m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +32%
Bull case
Canada's defence budget and the DDI marketplace provide a stream of drone orders, the options on 4,900 systems are exercised, and the Mirabel factory lifts revenue to C$80–100m in 2028 with gross margin above 35%. At EV/Sales 8 that equates to a market cap of C$650–800m – only about 1.6–2x today's C$397m. A 3x+ requires the company to become a real NATO supplier or acquisition target.
Bear case
Revenue keeps standing still around C$30-40m, the loss of about C$20m a year continues, and the multiple falls back toward the 2024 level (EV/Sales about 3). That corresponds to a market cap around C$100-130m - a fall of 65-75%. The risk of zero is low in the short term, though, because of the cash.
Catalysts
- 29 Sep 2026Mirabel factory (53,000 sq m) officially opened – production of dock stations and V-Series drones is to scale to Canadian and allied ordersgradual globenewswire.com
- 13 Nov 2026Q3 2026 results (estimated date) – shows whether the postponed defence order of approx. 2.6m C$ has been deliveredgradual stockanalysis.com
- Q4 2026Delivery of the first 100 tactical ISR drones to the Canadian Armed Forces; then options for up to 4,900 more systems (framework max. C$25m over 5 years)gradual stocktitan.net
Risk of going to zerolow - net cash about C$36m and about 3 years of runway; the biggest risk is multiple collapse and continued dilution, not bankruptcy.
Next financingNothing acute: cash C$59.2m at 30/6-2026 after a bought deal of C$34.5m in June. Burn c. C$4.7m per quarter (TTM FCF −18.8m/4; adjusted EBITDA −4.4m in Q2) gives c. 38 months of runway. Total debt C$23.5m incl. leases (interest-bearing 9.7m). However, the company has raised capital every year and is building a factory in Mirabel, so new issues on share price rises are likely.
Warrants & convertiblesAbout 4.6m warrants at C$0.76 expiring 14/8-2028 (from the private placement in August 2025, out of the money). Broker warrants at C$0.76 expired 14/8-2026. No convertibles found. Other warrants from earlier acquisitions/issues and the option plan have not been counted (share-based pay C$1.9m TTM).
Insiders, last 12 monthsNot systematically checked (SEDI not reviewed). Insiders own c. 19% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersNot examined in detail. Stockanalysis: insiders c. 19%, institutions c. 7%.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: no – approx. DKK 1.8bn is large for a penny stock. (2) Hot theme: yes – drones and defense. (3) Upcoming milestones: partial – deliveries and options are gradual, no binary event. (4) Major partner: partial – Canada's defense forces as a customer, but only a small firm order. (5) Funding for 2+ years: yes – approx. 38 months of runway. (6) Price near the bottom: no – the stock is approx. 4 times above the 2024 level (C$0.14) and the price is already high.
Why this asymmetryThe cash removes bankruptcy risk, but the stock is already priced at over 11x revenue for a company with no growth and growing losses. The theme is hot and the price reflects it; the upside is more like 1.5-2x, while the downside in a multiple collapse is 60-75%.
How the score is built
From 100 to 39, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.47 CAD
- Median analyst target
- 1.00 CAD
- Upside to median
- +110.5%
- Analysts
- 7
- Target range
- 0.90 – 1.00 CAD
- 52-week change
- −32%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−23 of −30
- −12MarginOperating margin −66% and net loss −C$24.4m TTM; operating margin has worsened every year (−21% in 2021, −26% in 2023, −43% in 2025). Gross margin only about 32% (29.3% in Q2 2026, down from 31.9%) because defence programmes take up more space.
- −6Quality of growthRevenue has stood still for four years (C$29.8m in 2022, 34.9 in 2023, 27.2 in 2024, 34.2 in 2025, 32.0 TTM) despite acquisitions and issues; H1 2026 fell 13.8% to C$14.0m. Over half is services (drone flying/inspection), not scalable products.
- −5MoatLow-price drones in a market with many competitors: the new defense contract has a price cap of C$5,000 per system, and the gross margin of about 30% shows limited pricing power. Its own autonomy software (V-Cortex) is only in early flight testing.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−20 of −35
- −20Valuation vs history and peersEV/Sales 11.3 and P/S 12.4 vs 3.2 and 2.5 at the end of 2024 - the multiple has almost quadrupled, while revenue is unchanged and the loss has grown. P/B 4.5 and P/TBV 7.3. Very expensive for a loss-making company with a 30% gross margin; the price rests on the drone/defense theme, not on figures.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−17 of −35
- −7DilutionShare count +32% over a year and +80% in 2025. Bought deal in June 2026 of 53.1m shares at C$0.65 (C$34.5m) and private placement in August 2025 at C$0.52 with half warrants at C$0.76 (expiry 14/8-2028); issues of C$81m in 12 months.
- −5Execution and supply chainQ2 2026 revenue of 8.4m C$ was 25.7% below analysts' expectations; a defence order of approx. 2.6m C$ could not be delivered due to a shortage of batteries and motors.
- −3True size of the contractsThe headline 'up to 5,000 systems' covers a firm order of only 100 systems (at most approx. CAD 0.5m at the price cap of CAD 5,000) and a framework of max. CAD 25m over five years; the rest are options that Canada is not obliged to exercise.
- −2Sentiment and qualityBeta 2.72 and Piotroski F-score 3; the stock trades below the 200-day average (C$0.62) and below the June issue price (C$0.65).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+5 of +15
- +3Net cashRecord cash of C$59.2m and net cash of about C$35.7m as of 30/6/2026; interest-bearing debt fell to C$9.7m; current ratio 7.7 – about 3 years of runway at the current burn.
- +2Regulatory approvalQualified in all five workstreams on Canada's Defence Drone Initiative marketplace and has converted it into a first contract with the Canadian Armed Forces.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). Canadian drone company (drone services, equipment sales, own V-Series drones and defence systems; formerly Drone Delivery Canada). Latest quarter Q2 2026 (to 30/6-2026). Market cap about C$397m (735.4m shares x C$0.54) = about DKK 1,844m, slightly above Nordnet's 1,706m. Insider trades and largest owners have not been investigated systematically (stockanalysis: 19% insiders, 7% institutions). Option programme and total warrant holdings have not been calculated. No backlog figure disclosed by the company. Several news sources about the company (ad-hoc-news and others) are automatically generated and were not used as sources.
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