Rankings Tech hardware & optics Xtract One
Xtract One
57
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−10
- Moat−6
- Valuation vs history and peers−6
Strengths
- Order book+3
- Net cash+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 4
- Price
- 2.32 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 604m
- Cash runway
- 29 months
- Cash / debt
- 15.6 / 0.9m CAD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +13%
Bull case
The order book gets installed, revenue reaches approx. CAD 40m in FY2027 (analyst estimate 41m), and the company becomes durably EBITDA-positive with a rising subscription share. At EV/Sales 6–8 on CAD 40m the market value could reach CAD 250–330m – approx. 2–2.5x today's CAD 130m; a takeover by a larger security group could give more.
Bear case
Installations are postponed, revenue falls again as in FY2025, and competition from Evolv and metal detectors squeezes prices; an incident involving an undetected weapon type could hit the entire category. Then money will have to be raised again at C$0.30–0.40, but the net cash and the order book make a total loss unlikely in the short term.
Catalysts
- Sep 2026New product version with better detection, data reporting and support for multi-unit installations (launched at GSX 14-16/9)gradual xtractone.com
- 22 Oct 2026Q4 and annual results FY2026 (estimated date) – analysts expect approx. 29.7m C$ in revenue for the yeargradual stockanalysis.com
- FY2027Installation of C$27.2m in agreements awaiting installation – must be converted into revenue and subscriptionsgradual stocktitan.net
Risk of going to zerolow to medium - net cash C$14.7m, burn near zero and an order book of 1.9x revenue, but the company has never made money on an annual basis.
Next financingCash of C$15.6m at 30/4-2026 (unchanged from the previous quarter) and spending of approx. C$1.6m per quarter (TTM FCF/4), with positive adjusted EBITDA in Q3; runway approx. 29 months. No issue necessary in the short term, but warrants at C$0.49 would give approx. C$10m if exercised.
Warrants & convertibles20.7m warrants at C$0.49 expiring 18/6-2028 (in the money at C$0.50, approx. +8% shares); 7.67m warrants at C$0.95 expiring 10/11-2028. No convertibles found. Options not counted (share-based compensation approx. C$1.1m a year).
Insiders, last 12 monthsNone found (not systematically checked). Insiders own about 0.5% according to stockanalysis.
Largest ownersNot examined. Stockanalysis shows only 0.5% insiders and 0.7% institutions.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. DKK 604m. (2) Hot theme: partial – AI and security, but not a hyped theme. (3) Upcoming milestones: yes, gradual – annual report 22/10 and installation of the order book. (4) Major partner: no – no documented strategic partner. (5) Funding for 2+ years: yes – approx. 29 months of runway and near break-even. (6) Price near the bottom: partial – −33% in a year, but above the 2025 low (C$0.34).
Why this asymmetryA real operating company with strong growth, order book and near break-even, so the downside is more limited than for most penny stocks. But the upside is more like 2x than 10x, revenue is lumpy, and competition and category reputation limit the valuation.
How the score is built
From 100 to 57, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.44 CAD
- Median analyst target
- 1.08 CAD
- Upside to median
- +145.5%
- Analysts
- 4
- Target range
- 1.00 – 1.20 CAD
- 52-week change
- −51%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−20 of −30
- −10MarginOperating margin −38% and net loss −C$9.0m TTM; FCF −C$6.4m. The company has lost money every year (operating loss C$11–16m annually in 2021–25); Q3 FY2026 was the first quarter with positive adjusted EBITDA (C$0.6m).
- −6MoatSmall player (74 employees) in a market with the larger US competitor Evolv and classic metal detector makers; the product is sold on detection capability and operating benefits, which are hard to prove and easy to imitate.
- −4Quality of growthRevenue is very uneven: +298% in FY2024, -15% in FY2025 and about +200% in Q3 FY2026, because it follows installations of large projects; 80% of new orders are subscriptions, though, which give more stable revenue going forward.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−6 of −35
- −6Valuation vs history and peersEV/Sales 4.8 and P/S 5.4 are the lowest in the company's history (5.8-54 in 2021-25), but still high for a loss-making hardware/subscription company with a 59% gross margin; P/B 6.8 and P/TBV 8.5.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−15 of −35
- −6DilutionTwo bought deals in 2025: 20.7m units at CAD 0.39 (June) and 15.3m units at CAD 0.75 (November); share count +12.9% over a year. 20.7m warrants at CAD 0.49 (to June 2028) are already in the money, and a further 7.7m warrants have a strike of CAD 0.95.
- −3Regulation and reputation in the categoryIn 2024 the FTC intervened against the competitor Evolv over misleading claims about AI weapons scanners (including a knife that was not detected at a school); school customers gained the right to terminate contracts. The entire category is vulnerable to errors and tightened requirements.
- −2Execution of order bookC$27.2m of the C$45.1m order book is agreements still awaiting installation; revenue depends on customers actually installing and not postponing.
- −4Sentiment and liquidityThe stock is −33% over 52 weeks and trades only about 80,000 shares a day (about C$40,000); Altman Z-score −0.93 and insiders own only about 0.5% according to stockanalysis.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +3Order bookTotal order book C$45.1m (17.9m contractual + 27.2m awaiting installation) – about 1.9 times TTM revenue; new orders in Q3 of C$9.1m vs 4.6m a year earlier.
- +1Net cashNet cash C$14.7m (cash 15.6m, debt 0.9m) and burn that has fallen to approx. C$1.6m per quarter – no acute financing need.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3). AI-based weapons detection (scanners + subscription) for arenas, schools, hospitals and industry; fiscal year August–July, latest quarter Q3 FY2026 (to 30/4-2026). Industry: 'Tech hardware & optics' is the closest – the product is security scanners with a software subscription. Customer concentration is not disclosed. Insider trades and largest owners have not been investigated systematically (stockanalysis shows only 0.5% insiders and 0.7% institutions, which may be incomplete). The option programme has not been calculated. Low liquidity: about 80,000 shares per day. The Q4/annual report (expected about 22/10-2026) was not out at the time of the analysis.
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