Rankings Commodities & uranium ArcelorMittal
ArcelorMittal
64
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−12
- Margin−6
- ROIC−5
Strengths
- Growth projects+2
- Pricing power+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 64, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 53.98 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 70.59 EUR
- Upside to median
- +30.8%
- Analysts
- 14
- Target range
- 54.06 – 82.96 EUR
- 52-week change
- +62%
- P/E (trailing)
- 26.0
- Forward P/E
- 10.9
- PEG
- 0.37
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−16 of −30
- −6MarginOperating margin 4.1%, gross margin 9.0% and net margin 2.9% (TTM); the operating margin was only 2.7% in 2025 vs 14.6–21.7% in the 2021–22 boom.
- −5ROICROIC 3.5% (TTM) and 2.5–4.4% in 2023–2025 vs a WACC of 11.8% – capital earns far below the cost of capital outside the peak of the cycle.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue has fallen from USD 79.8bn (2022) to USD 62.8bn (TTM). The 2026 lift in Europe (EBITDA/t USD 98, a three-year high) comes mainly from the EU's new tariff quotas (TRQ) and CBAM from 1/7, not from increased competitiveness.
- −2Capital allocationBuyback and dividend of USD 922m (TTM) and USD 700m in H1 2026, while FCF was −USD 159m (TTM) and −USD 1.49bn in H1; the payout is in practice financed with rising debt under a capex programme of USD 4.5–5.0bn.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−12 of −35
- −12Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 10.9 vs 2.6–10.8 in 2021–25 (above the whole range); P/B 0.91 and P/TBV 1.04 vs 0.36–0.62 and 0.41–0.71 (far above the range); EV/EBITDA 9.7 vs 1.8–10.6. The share price is +92% over 52 weeks, so much of the gain from tariff protection is priced in.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−12 of −35
- −4Regulation (tariff dependence)The earnings uplift in Europe rests on the EU's tariff-quota tool and CBAM; management expects 'further upside' once the TRQ works fully. A political decision that can be watered down, challenged at the WTO or met with retaliation.
- −3DebtNet debt rose to USD 9.5bn in Q2 from 7.9bn at year-end and 5.2bn in 2024, after a working capital investment of USD 2.0bn in H1; interest cover 3.6x.
- −3Macro and cycleBarclays cut its target from €75 to 55 (Hold) on 25/9, and the lowest target is €48.59 (−19%); rising raw-material and energy costs weigh, and trade in long products is sluggish.
- −2Controlling shareholderOnly about 413m of 754m shares are free float; the Mittal family has decisive influence, while other insiders own 0.15%.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Growth projectsOrganic growth projects (India, Liberia, electric steel in the US and Europe, Brazil) and completed acquisitions are expected to lift EBITDA potential by about USD 1.8bn from 2026 – unchanged guidance; Sustainable Solutions is to double EBITDA in 2028 vs 2023.
- +1Pricing powerRaising hot-rolled prices in Europe by €20/t to about €790/t in September with full order books and less import competition.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
The Amsterdam listing (quote/ams/MT) is used; the company is also listed in Paris, Luxembourg, Madrid and New York. Accounts in USD, share price in EUR. Forward P/E and estimates are adjusted (non-GAAP); 2025 net profit (USD 3.2bn) was lifted by non-operating items, while the operating margin was only 2.7%. Analysts expect EPS +74% in 2027 – that is formula points, not a plus. Targets range from €48.59 to 81.67; Barclays cut to €55 on 25/9, while several other targets have not been updated after the fall from about €63 to 60. The status of the European DRI/decarbonisation projects and CO2 allowance costs have not been examined. The Mittal family's exact stake has not been verified (free float about 55% according to stockanalysis).
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