Rankings Commodities & uranium Yellow Cake
Yellow Cake
78
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Business model and earnings quality−5
- Moat−3
- Discount to NAV vs history and SPUT−3
Strengths
- Debt-free balance sheet+2
- Low cost ratio+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 78, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 530.50 GBX
- Median analyst target
- 744.00 GBX
- Upside to median
- +40.2%
- Analysts
- 8
- Target range
- 690.00 – 961.00 GBX
- 52-week change
- −11%
- P/E (trailing)
- 3.9
- Forward P/E
- 7.0
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−10 of −30
- −5Business model and earnings qualityNo operations: the return comes 100% from the uranium price. The profit of GBP 317.7m TTM is unrealised revaluation, operating cash flow is −GBP 9.7m, and no dividend is paid. Costs were c. USD 13m (c. 0.6% of NAV) last year, so an owner gets the uranium price minus an ongoing deduction.
- −3MoatThe only real advantage is the purchase right of up to USD 100m a year from Kazatomprom, and it expires 31/12-2027 with only one purchase left. The 2026 right was exercised at USD 86.15/lb, almost the spot price, so it gave no discount. SPUT is a larger competitor for the same investor money.
- −2Quality of growthHoldings per share only grow through new shares: a placing of USD 110m (12.8m shares at GBP 6.29) in February 2026 and about USD 125m in September 2025. NAV per share rose only 0.2% in the 2nd quarter (GBP 6.33 to 6.34), because a stronger GBP ate the price increase.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35
- −3Discount to NAV vs history and SPUTThe price of 542.5p vs a NAV at today's spot price of about 669p is about a 19% discount (about 15% vs the official pro forma NAV of 642p from 24/7). P/B was 0.83-0.94 in 2022-26, and SPUT trades at about a 13% discount, so the stock is cheap vs its own history and peer. The deduction applies to the absolute level: the long-term price (USD 97/lb) is the highest in many years, and an owner of physical uranium has no margin of safety if it falls.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−9 of −35
- −3Price formation driven by financial buyersThe spot price is propped up mainly by SPUT and other financial buyers: SPUT bought 5.3m lb in Q1 but only 1.35m lb in Q2, and 92% of spot sellers were intermediaries/financials. With SPUT at about a 13% discount, the trust cannot issue units and buy more uranium, and there are almost no completed contracts with utilities in 2026.
- −3Counterparty and storage riskThe entire holding sits with two conversion companies (Cameco and Orano) without third-party insurance; in case of loss there is only contractual compensation. The inflow of new uranium depends on Kazatomprom (Kazakhstan, over 30% of world production).
- −2Persistent discountThe discount to NAV has been steady for years and has grown from approx. 13% in September to approx. 19% at today's spot price, even though the buyback of 10m USD (1.36m shares at approx. 544p) was completed in July. There is no mechanism forcing the discount down.
- −1CurrencyNAV is in USD, but the share trades in GBP; in Q2 the rise in the uranium price was almost offset by a stronger GBP (USD/GBP 1.3188 to 1.3273).
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Debt-free balance sheetNo debt; cash GBP 131.9m (before the USD 100m payment to Kazatomprom), so there are no forced sales of uranium.
- +1Low cost ratioThe management fee is 275,000 USD fixed plus 0.275% of holdings above 100 m USD; total costs were about 0.6% of NAV.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Yellow Cake is a holding company (Jersey, AIM-listed) with two employees that owns physical uranium (24.37m lb after the Kazatomprom delivery in H2 2026) stored with Cameco (Canada) and Orano (France). The Vanta model's T1 criteria (margin, ROIC, moat, quality of growth) fit poorly: 'earnings' is revaluation of the uranium stock, so P/E 3.9 and ROE 24% are meaningless, and T2 is assessed on discount to NAV instead of earnings multiples. The NAV discount is calculated by me: 24.37m lb x spot USD 89.80 (9/10-2026) + USD 46.9m in net working assets and USD/GBP approx. 1.33 gives approx. GBP 6.69 per share vs a price of GBP 5.425, i.e. approx. 19% discount (approx. 15% vs the official pro forma NAV of GBP 6.42 from 24/7). The price equals approx. USD 72/lb. For comparison, Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) traded at approx. 13.3% discount (9/10). The P/B history (0.83–0.94 in 2022–26) is used as discount history. The USD 10m buyback gives no plus, because operating cash flow is negative. The price formula of the Kazatomprom agreement is not public, and the 2026 purchase was at USD 86.15/lb, close to spot. Currency exposure: NAV in USD, the share in GBP.
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