Rankings Oil & gas Zenith Energy
Zenith Energy
27
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Going concern and liquidity−12
- Margin and earnings−10
- EV vs revenue and earnings−9
Strengths
- Legal sub-owners+1
- Growing electricity contribution in Italy+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 0.36 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 257m
- Cash runway
- 2 months
- Cash / debt
- 13.6 / 388.0m SEK
- Dilution, 12 months
- +39%
Bull case
The ICSID tribunal awards Zenith significant compensation, and Tunisia pays or settles. Already 10% of the claim (about US$57m ≈ DKK 375m) equals more than the entire market cap (about DKK 257m). 25–50% of the claim (US$143–286m) could in theory give 3–7 times the price, even after the debt of about C$69m. At the same time the solar projects must reach shovel-ready status and be sold or financed without issues.
Bear case
The ICSID claim is dismissed or gets a small award that is not recovered for years, while bond maturities of C$16.8m and operating burn force the company into repeated issues close to C$0.04–0.05. With debt of about C$69m incl. deferred purchase price above market cap, shareholders could be diluted toward zero (−70–100%).
Catalysts
- 28 Oct 2026Expiry of 95m warrants at CAD 0.04: gives approx. CAD 3.8m in cash, but also approx. 13% dilutiongradual zenithenergy.ca
- Dec 2026Half-year report at 30/9-2026 (latest end of December) with status on cash, bond maturity and the Daybreak acquisitiongradual zenithenergy.ca
- Q1 2027The ICSID tribunal's award in the case against Tunisia (claim about US$572.65m) after the hearing in Paris in April 2026 and final written submissions in September 2026binary tipranks.com
Risk of going to zerohigh – going concern note, cash of C$1.9m against short-term bonds and loans of about C$21.5m, ongoing dilution (+39% in a year), and the value rests on a binary arbitration against a state.
Next financingCash was only C$1.9m (SEK 13.6m) at 31/3-2026, operations burn about C$3m per quarter, and C$16.8m of bonds fall due within 12 months. The placement in April 2026 (about 66m shares) and the warrant exercise before 28/10-2026 (about C$3.9m if all are exercised) cover only a few quarters. New share issues and bond exchanges are therefore almost certain in 2026/27, unless Tunisia pays.
Warrants & convertiblesAt 31/3-2026: 84.2m warrants (equivalent to 97.0m shares) at a weighted strike of 0.04 C$ and with a remaining life of 0.58 years; of which 95m warrants at 0.04 C$ expiring 28/10-2026, all in the money. In addition, stock options. The convertible loan facility was repaid after the fiscal year end. No convertible bonds; the EMTN bonds are non-convertible.
Insiders, last 12 monthsnone found (not systematically examined)
Largest ownersNot found. The shareholder base appears to be dispersed with many private investors in Norway, Sweden and the UK (5,173 Nordnet owners on the Oslo line alone). CEO Andrea Cattaneo's stake not found.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: yes – approx. DKK 257m. (2) Hot theme: partial – Italian solar and uranium, but not a hot theme. (3) Upcoming data/milestones: yes – the ICSID award in Q1 2027 is a genuine binary event. (4) Major partner: no. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – cash lasts only months, and there are bond maturities. (6) Price near the bottom after a large decline: no – +10% in a year.
Why this asymmetryThe ICSID award gives a real lottery element, because even a small share of the claim exceeds market cap. But recovering money from Tunisia typically takes years, debt and dilution eat a large part of any gain, and without an award the company depends on new issues every quarter.
How the score is built
From 100 to 27, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of . Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- –
- Median analyst target
- –
- Upside to median
- –
- Analysts
- none
- Target range
- –
- 52-week change
- –
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −10Margin and earningsRevenue of only C$2.3m in fiscal 2025/26 (+8%), but a net loss of C$19.9m and negative operating cash flow of C$12.0m. Administration and arbitration costs are many times revenue, and only the Italian power production gives a positive operating contribution (EUR 0.82m in 8 months).
- −7Quality of growth and focusThe strategy is spread across Tunisian oil (Robbana is idle after vandalism and theft), about 193.5 MWp of Italian solar projects that are largely still under development, a uranium spin-out (Reveille Resources) and now a planned acquisition of 82% of Daybreak Oil and Gas in the USA. There is no core business that grows on its own.
- −3MoatSmall player without a technology or scale advantage. The solar projects in Lombardy, Piedmont and Puglia compete with large developers for grid connection and financing, and the oil fields are small and mature.
- −7Capital allocationThe share count rose from 466.9m (31/3-2025) to 649.2m (31/3-2026) and 714.8m (June 2026), i.e. +53% in 15 months. At the same time unsecured EMTN bonds of C$48.1m have been issued in four currencies for acquisitions, while equity fell from C$65.6m to C$51.7m.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−13 of −35
- −9EV vs revenue and earningsMarket cap approx. C$54m + bonds and loans C$53.3m + deferred purchase price C$15.6m − cash C$1.9m gives an EV of approx. C$120m, i.e. approx. 50 times revenue with negative EBITDA. There are no earnings to measure against.
- −4Quality of the book valueP/B appears to be approx. 1, but CAD 132m of the assets are plant, including non-producing Tunisian concessions and solar projects, written up under the revaluation model. The real value depends on arbitration and financing.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−29 of −35
- −12Going concern and liquidityThe auditor highlights material uncertainty about going concern. As of 31/3/2026, cash was C$1.9m, while short-term bonds amount to C$16.8m and short-term loans to C$4.7m. The company will try to push the maturities to 2029 with exchange offers.
- −8Dilution182.3m new shares in 2025/26 (+39%) and a further approx. 66m in the placement in April 2026. In addition come warrants on 97m shares at a weighted strike of C$0.04 (most expire 28/10-2026) far below the price, and ongoing bond financing presupposes more issues.
- −6Jurisdiction and lawsuitsThe main value depends on Tunisia: the ICSID case (claim US$572.65m) awaits an award in Q1 2027. The SLK arbitration was lost and an annulment is being sought at the Swiss supreme court, and even the final ICC-1 award from December 2024 (about US$9.7m) has not yet been recovered from ETAP.
- −3Acquisition riskExclusivity (June 2026) on 82% of Daybreak Oil and Gas, even though the group itself has no liquidity for operations. A new acquisition in the US increases both execution and financing risk.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+2 of +15
- +1Legal sub-ownersTunisia acknowledged in writing in April 2026 that the Robbana and El Bibane concessions and approx. 3,987 barrels of oil belong to Zenith's subsidiary. The ICC-1 award of approx. USD 9.7m is final and interest-bearing.
- +1Growing electricity contribution in ItalyNet operating contribution from power generation in Italy rose approx. 22% to EUR 0.82m in the first 8 months of the year (as of 31/8-2026).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – Nordics). No stockanalysis page: osl/ZENA, otc/ZENAF and lon/ZEN exist only as symbols without data, so the figures come from the annual report for the fiscal year to 31/3-2026 (audited, approved 27/7-2026). The company reports in CAD; penny amounts are converted to SEK at C$1 ≈ SEK 7.28 (derived from the Nordnet prices 1/10-2026). The price of SEK 0.552 is the SDR line on Spotlight; most Nordnet owners hold the Oslo line (ZENA). Nordnet does not state the market cap; 714.8m shares × DKK 0.36 ≈ DKK 257m (matches about £43m on the LSE this summer). Cash after the April placement and daily turnover have not been found, and there is no information on the largest owners or insider trades. Industry: a mix of oil/gas (Tunisia, Italian gas), solar development in Italy and uranium; 'Energy: oil & gas' is chosen because revenue is oil and gas.
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