Aker BP
61
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−8
- Project costs−5
- Price normalisation−5
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 61, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 370.20 NOK
- Median analyst target
- 343.68 NOK
- Upside to median
- −7.2%
- Analysts
- 17
- Target range
- 220.85 – 434.83 NOK
- 52-week change
- +44%
- P/E (trailing)
- 11.5
- Forward P/E
- 12.2
- PEG
- 0.17
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−14 of −30
- −4ROICROIC 8.75% (TTM) despite high oil prices; only 1.1% in 2025 (impairments of USD 2.0bn) vs 9.7–19% in 2022–2024. Net profit is USD 1.4bn on revenue of USD 11.9bn.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue has fallen from USD 13.7bn in 2023 to 11.0bn in 2025 (TTM 11.9bn), and production is stuck at 380–400,000 boe/day. The EPS jump in 2026 (from USD 0.21 to 3.50) is due to the oil price and a low starting point, not a stronger company.
- −4Capital allocationThe dividend (USD 1.59bn) was paid in 2025 with FCF of only USD 0.10bn and is still larger than FCF (TTM 1.63 vs 1.48bn). Net debt has risen from USD 1.7bn in 2021 to 6.9bn, and the Altman Z-score is 1.05.
- −3MoatAker BP is pure NCS oil and gas and a price taker without diversification. The advantage is scale on the shelf and strategic cooperation with Equinor (Ringvei Vest, Yggdrasil, Wisting), but no pricing power.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−10 of −35
- −8Multiples vs own historyP/B 1.91 vs 0.97–1.57 in 2022–2025 and EV/EBITDA 2.83 vs 1.40–2.40 in the same period; trailing P/E 15.7 vs 6.8–13.8 (2025 excluded). The share price is up 30% in a year on higher oil prices.
- −2PeersMore expensive than Equinor on EV/EBITDA (2.83 vs 2.46) with only half the return (ROIC 8.75% vs 16.5%) and more debt (net debt/EBITDA 0.68 vs 0.21).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−13 of −35
- −5Project costsInvestment estimates for Yggdrasil and Valhall PWP-Fenris have been raised by about USD 1.1bn: Yggdrasil to USD 12.5–13.0bn (from about 12.1) and Valhall PWP-Fenris to 7.3–7.6bn (from about 7.0). 2026 capex is USD 6.8–7.2bn. Both projects start up in 2027, so execution risk remains.
- −5Price normalisationAnalysts expect EPS −16% in 2027. 4 of 17 rate it sell or strong sell, and ABG Sundal Collier downgraded to Sell in September. A normalisation of the oil price hits a pure oil producer hard.
- −3Johan Sverdrup in declineJohan Sverdrup, Aker BP's largest field, has come off plateau. Production falls more than 10% in 2026, and phase 3 only helps from Q4 2027.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+2 of +15
- +2Raised guidance2026 production guidance narrowed to 380–400,000 boe/day by raising the low end (from 370,000). Operating cash flow of USD 3.1bn in Q2 is the highest in the company's history.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Accounts in USD, price in NOK. stockanalysis' forward P/E history (0.7–1.5 in 2023–2025) and the current forward P/E of 6.1 are distorted by a currency error (USD EPS vs NOK price). With a price of NOK 350 and an EPS estimate of USD 3.50, the P/E is about 10 on 2026 and about 12 on 2027 – T2 therefore rests on P/B, EV/EBITDA and trailing P/E. The net margin is low due to Norwegian petroleum tax (78.8%). According to the company, 2026 is the peak for investment; production is to rise to about 525,000 boe/day in 2028 if the projects deliver.
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