Rankings Commodities & uranium BASF
BASF
61
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin and ROIC−6
- Multiples vs own history−5
- Moat−4
Strengths
- Raised guidance+2
- Debt reduction and hidden value+2
- Cost savings+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 61, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 53.52 EUR
- Median analyst target
- 55.00 EUR
- Upside to median
- +2.8%
- Analysts
- 19
- Target range
- 42.00 – 61.00 EUR
- 52-week change
- +25%
- P/E (trailing)
- 8.1
- Forward P/E
- 20.4
- PEG
- 2.78
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−16 of −30
- −6Margin and ROICOperating margin 4.9% TTM vs 9.5% in 2021, and ROIC 3.8% TTM vs a WACC of 6.1%; ROIC was 1.4–3.1% in 2023–2025 (−4.0% in 2022). The group has not earned its cost of capital for four years.
- −3Quality of growthRevenue is €61.6bn TTM vs 87.3bn in 2022 and 68.9bn in 2023; growth of about 1% over the last year. The price lift slowed from 8–11% y/y in Q1 to 3–7% in Q2, and FCF was −€1.56bn in H1 (0.3bn worse than a year earlier).
- −4MoatEuropean chemicals are under structural pressure: VCI expects another decline in German chemical production in 2026, and 53% of companies cite rising import pressure (Chinese overcapacity, a strong euro, US tariffs) as one of their biggest problems. BASF's Verbund in Ludwigshafen is the core of the group.
- −3Capital allocationInvestment of €5.4–6.2bn a year in 2023–2024 (including the Zhanjiang Verbund in China, amid Chinese overcapacity) pushed FCF from €3.7bn (2021) to 0.75bn (2024) and 1.0bn TTM; battery materials and precious-metal services are now a drag.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−9 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own historyForward P/E 18.0 vs 11.2–18.0 in 2021–2025, i.e. at the top of its own forward history; EV/EBITDA 7.8 vs 6.1–10.4 and P/B 1.16 vs 1.0–1.35. The price is not low for a group with ROIC below its cost of capital, and J.P. Morgan reiterated Sell on 13/9, citing valuation.
- −4FCF yieldFCF yield 2.4% TTM (P/FCF 41); even guidance of €1.5–2.3bn of FCF in 2026 is only 3.5–5.3% of the €43.3bn market value.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−9 of −35
- −3Payouts above FCFDividends (€2.0bn) plus buybacks (€1.5bn) TTM are more than three times FCF (€1.05bn); FCF payout 185%. The new €1.0bn buyback (Aug. 2026–Apr. 2027) is in effect funded by the Coatings proceeds, not by operations.
- −2Recurring special itemsImpairments and restructuring every year: €1.1bn (2023), 0.75bn (2024), 0.4bn (2025) and 0.4bn TTM; about 7,000 jobs have been cut since January 2024, and the CoreShift programme runs to 2029.
- −2DebtNet debt €17.1bn (about 2.4x guided EBITDA before special items); debt/EBITDA 4.1 on stockanalysis' figures, interest cover 3.2x and Altman Z-score 2.17.
- −2Execution (portfolio)The agricultural division is to be legally separated by the end of 2026 and ready for a partial IPO in mid-2027; BASF keeps 40% of Coatings (Surventis JV). Several large portfolio moves at once raise execution risk.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2Raised guidance2026 EBITDA before special items raised to €6.9–7.7bn from 6.2–7.0bn; Q2 EBITDA before special items rose 53.6% to €2.45bn on higher volumes, better prices and lower fixed costs.
- +1Cost savingsAnnual savings of €2.0bn have been achieved (target 2.3bn by year-end), and the share of highly competitive plants in Ludwigshafen has risen to 88% from 78% in 2024.
- +2Debt reduction and hidden valueCoatings sold for €5.8bn before tax at 13x EV/EBITDA (vs BASF's own 7.8x), and net debt fell 19.6% (€4.2bn) to €17.1bn year on year.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Industry: the list has no chemicals category; 'Commodities & uranium' was chosen as the closest (like Solvay and Yara), and earnings follow the chemicals cycle, hence cyclical. TTM net income (€5.8bn) and the trailing P/E of 21 are lifted by a one-off after-tax gain of about €3.5bn from the sale of Coatings; underlying EPS is expected at about €3.0 in 2026. The sale proceeds (€5.8bn before tax) fund both debt reduction and buybacks. Insider trading, litigation (PFAS etc.) and credit rating have not been examined.
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