Rankings Semiconductors Ambarella
Ambarella
52
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−13
- FCF yield and absolute price level−8
- Margin−6
Strengths
- Net cash+2
- Edge-AI momentum+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 52, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 61.67 USD
- Median analyst target
- 90.00 USD
- Upside to median
- +45.9%
- Analysts
- 14
- Target range
- 65.00 – 120.00 USD
- 52-week change
- −28%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 69.5
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 3 findings−14 of −30
- −6MarginGAAP operating margin −14.9% and net margin −13.5% (TTM); losses in every year since FY2022 (−7.8%, −22.0%, −68.3%, −44.4%, −21.1%). Gross margin has also slipped from 62.7% (FY22) to 58.5% TTM and 57.7% in Q2. The loss is counted here and not again under ROIC (−17.7%).
- −4Quality of earnings and growthNon-GAAP profit ($0.18/share in Q2) exists only because share-based pay of $22.7m in the quarter (21% of revenue; $91m TTM against an operating loss of $62m) is excluded. The Q2 operating loss was also lifted by a one-off R&D reduction of about $9m from a discontinued development project. Growth is slowing from +37% in FY26 to +13% in Q2 and an expected +12.9% in FY27; revenue has grown only from $332m to $418m since FY2022 (about 6% a year).
- −4Capital allocation and dilutionShare count grows 3.3-5.5% every year (FY22-TTM) due to stock-based compensation, and buybacks are token (2.4m $ TTM). Goodwill of 304m $ from the Oculii acquisition (307m $ in cash in FY22) makes up 39% of assets without having lifted the margin; tangible equity is only 5.89 $/share.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−21 of −35
- −13Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 75.9 (non-GAAP) versus 76–179 in FY22–FY26, but the history is measured on trough earnings; P/S 7.1 and EV/revenue 6.5 versus 7.1–15.6 and 6.3–14.3. Cheapest in its own history, but still expensive against Mobileye (forward P/E 17, EV/revenue 2.3), and only Lattice (forward P/E 47, EV/revenue 27) is more expensive – and Lattice is growing about 46% a year versus Ambarella's about 15%. There is no GAAP P/E because of the loss.
- −8FCF yield and absolute price levelFCF yield 0.33% and P/FCF 306 (FCF $9.7m TTM, down from $58m in FY26); analysts expect FCF around zero (−$0.8m) in FY27. Earnings yield −1.9%. The market value of $2.98bn rests on non-GAAP EPS of $0.80 in FY27, which ignores share-based compensation.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 7 findings−14 of −35
- −4Customer concentrationThe distributor WT Microelectronics accounts for about 60% of revenue, and 66% of revenue is invoiced in Taiwan (276 of 418m $ TTM). One distributor relationship thus carries the majority of sales.
- −3Inventory and cash flowInventory rose 47% to $77m since January 2026 (inventory change -$43m TTM), and operating cash flow fell to $27m TTM from $74m in FY26. In FY2024 revenue fell 33% in an inventory correction.
- −2Geographic exposureApprox. 86% of revenue is invoiced in Taiwan and the rest of Asia (361 of 418m $ TTM), while the US is only 7.6m $. This makes the company vulnerable to export controls, tariffs and tensions between the US, China and Taiwan.
- −2ExecutionQ2 FY27 came in below expectations (guidance in line), GAAP gross margin fell to 57.7% from 58.9%, and the stock fell about 6% after the report on concern about rising memory and supply costs.
- −1Insider sellingCEO Fermi Wang has sold on an ongoing basis in 2026 (including approx. 50,000 shares 2/3, 27,000 shares 17-19/3 and blocks of 16,250 and 32,500 shares at approx. 90-91 $) under 10b5-1 plans; no insider purchases found.
- −1Sales process without resultBloomberg reported in June 2025 that Ambarella, with bank advisers, was exploring a sale (stock +21%). More than a year later no deal has been announced, so part of the takeover premium may be unsupported.
- −1Short interest12.9% of shares are sold short (13.5% of free float), up from 4.36m to 5.71m shares in a month.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Net cashCash and securities of $272m against debt of $12.6m (leasing), i.e. net cash of $260m or about 9% of market cap.
- +1Edge-AI momentumRecord revenue from edge AI in Q2 with growth in both automotive and IoT, strong growth in CV75/CV72, over 50m AI SoCs sold and 7-year sales agreements with Macnica and Capgemini; Q3 guidance $115-124m (about +10% y/y at the midpoint).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Fiscal year Feb-Jan (FY2027 ends 31/1-2027); TTM = through Q2 FY27 (July 2026). Price $67.43 (9/10-2026), market cap $2.98bn, EV $2.72bn. Forward P/E and analyst EPS are non-GAAP and exclude share-based compensation (about 21% of revenue) - on a GAAP basis there is a loss. Revenue fell 33% in FY2024 in an inventory correction at customers, but the company is fabless and not on the list of cyclical industries, so cyclical: false. The share via WT Microelectronics (60%) comes from an AI-generated 10-Q summary and has not been checked directly in the 10-Q, but is in line with the 58-60% in older 10-Ks. The outcome of the 2025 sale process has not been found in any source; no deal has been announced. Competition (Qualcomm, Nvidia, Horizon Robotics, Mobileye) and the design-win pipeline in the automotive segment have not been examined in depth, so T1 moat has 0 points and the score is an upper limit.
Also in Semiconductors
The highest scores in the same industry.
