Rankings Commodities & uranium Cabral Gold
Cabral Gold
52
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
A good business with a real question mark: the price, a crack, or both.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−8
- Peers−8
- Multiples vs own history−7
Strengths
- Execution+2
- Strategic investor+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 52, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 1.10 CAD
- Median analyst target
- 2.10 CAD
- Upside to median
- +90.9%
- Analysts
- 2
- Target range
- 1.70 – 2.50 CAD
- 52-week change
- +93%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- 9.8
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−18 of −30
- −8MarginNo revenue yet in the accounts (first gold 10/9-2026): operating loss CAD 13.1m and FCF -12.5m TTM, ROIC -88%. The loss is counted only here and weighted lower because production has started.
- −5Resource and studiesPhase 1 is small: about 25,000 oz a year for 6.2 years (PFS July 2025, calculated at USD 2,500/oz). The district resource of about 1.2 Moz is from 2022, and about 75% is in hard rock, which only gets a PEA in H1 2027.
- −3Capital allocationRepeated dilution: about 23% in the last year (incl. Alpayana), 23% in 2023 and 53% in 2021. The construction was, however, financed without a large issue. (The gold loan is counted under T3.)
- −2Quality of operationsLow AISC of about USD 1,210/oz gives a high margin at today's gold price, but it is one small mine; diversification only comes in phase 2.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 2 findings−15 of −35
- −7Multiples vs own historyThe market cap has risen from CAD 44m (end of 2024) to CAD 540m; P/B 40.5 vs 4.7–10.7 in 2020–24. The share is +253% over 52 weeks and already prices in a successful start-up.
- −8PeersSerabi Gold, an established producer in the same Tapajós region, has an EV of about CAD 246m; Cabral has an EV of about CAD 545m for a mine that has just started up at about 25,000 oz a year, i.e. more than twice as expensive as a producing neighbour.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−18 of −35
- −5Debt in goldThe 353 kg gold loan runs 39 months at 10% interest; first interest in December 2026 and repayments from March 2027. The carrying value of the debt was CAD 67.4m at 30/6 and rises when the gold price rises.
- −5Start-up riskThe heap leach plant must be ramped up to 3,000 tonnes a day; commercial production (60% of capacity) is only expected at the end of 2026, and no guidance is given for 2026. Repayments on the gold loan start shortly after.
- −3Ownership concentrationAegis Value Fund owns about 173m shares (about half) and is also a lender; Alpayana owns 9.99%. Free float and liquidity are therefore limited, and a large owner can steer financing and terms.
- −3JurisdictionTapajós in Brazil has risk of licence delays, illegal mining (garimpeiros) and infrastructure challenges; the company has, however, received an operating licence and poured gold ahead of schedule.
- −2Dilution from warrantsThe Alpayana placement gave 17.3m warrants at CAD 1.70 (to 24/2-2028), and phase 2 in hard rock requires far more capital than phase 1.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+4 of +15
- +2ExecutionFirst gold (about 1,130 oz) was poured on 10/9-2026, about 6 weeks ahead of plan, and the construction was fully financed by the gold loan.
- +2Strategic investorThe Peruvian mining company Alpayana bought 34.6m units at CAD 1.30 (about CAD 45m) and received 9.99% plus the right to a board seat – validation from an industrial player.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny deep dive (the price is above DKK 3). Gold company in the Tapajós region of Brazil (Cuiú Cuiú district), which poured its first gold 10/9-2026 from a small heap leach mine (phase 1, about 25,000 oz/year). Stockanalysis' annual figures stop at 2024, and quarterly figures are only to 30/6-2026, so cash after the Alpayana placement (CAD 45m, 24/8-2026) and Q3 burn is an estimate (about CAD 57m). The gold loan is denominated in gold (353 kg), so the debt rises with the gold price; the booked debt was CAD 67.4m at 30/6. Price CAD 1.555 and market cap CAD 539.6m from stockanalysis 2/10-2026 (347m shares); Nordnet showed DKK 2,478m. The resource of about 1.2m oz is from 2022. Insider trades and short data have not been investigated. Brazilian jurisdiction (licences, garimpeiros) has only been assessed at a high level.
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