AMD
44
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history and peers−28
- Dilution−8
- Margin−4
Strengths
- Guidance / estimates+3
- Net cash+2
- Customer breadth in AI+2
How the score is built
From 100 to 44, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 466.84 USD
- Median analyst target
- 640.50 USD
- Upside to median
- +37.2%
- Analysts
- 53
- Target range
- 430.00 – 1,250 USD
- 52-week change
- +82%
- P/E (trailing)
- 119.8
- Forward P/E
- 41.5
- PEG
- 0.61
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−10 of −30
- −4MarginGAAP operating margin 15.8% (TTM) and adjusted about 27% in Q2; the data centre segment earns 31% (2.1 of 6.7bn $). Nvidia is at about 65%. Even without Xilinx amortisation ($544m in Q2) the margin is below half of Nvidia's.
- −2ROICROIC 9.8% (TTM), up from 0.8% in 2023, but below the stated cost of capital of 17.7%. The figure is depressed by $25.5bn of goodwill from Xilinx, so the underlying rate of return is higher.
- −2Quality of earningsInvestment gains of $483m make up approx. 21% of Q2 net income ($2.3bn). Share-based compensation is $1.9bn TTM (4.6% of revenue) and growing 16% a year. FCF in Q2 fell to $1.56bn as capex doubled to $808m.
- −2Moat and pricing powerAMD is number two behind Nvidia (CUDA). The gross margin of 56% vs Nvidia's about 75% shows weaker pricing power, and the big GPU deals were bought with equity warrants that, according to SemiAnalysis, can lower customers' real GPU price markedly.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−28 of −35
- −28Multiples vs own history and peersForward P/E 56.9 vs 20–47 in FY21–25 (average about 36); EV/sales 24.8 vs 4.3–10.6 (more than double the previous top); P/FCF 123 and EV/EBITDA 107. Even on 2027 EPS (15.58 $) P/E is about 42. Nvidia trades at forward P/E 18.7 and Broadcom at 20.2 with far higher margins. The share price (655 $) is above the analysts' average price target (620 $) after +298% in a year.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 7 findings−28 of −35
- −8DilutionOpenAI and Meta each hold warrants for up to 160m shares at $0.01 (in total approx. 20% of 1.63bn shares), which vest on GPU purchase milestones and price targets; OpenAI's last tranche requires $600, which the price is now above. None had vested as of 27/6. The share count also rises 1.1% a year despite buybacks.
- −4Customer concentrationAI growth from 2H26 rests on a few customers: OpenAI (6 GW), Meta (up to 6 GW) and Anthropic (up to 2 GW) in Helios racks. OpenAI's ability to finance its commitments is an open question, and AMD does not disclose customer shares.
- −3Customer financing and guaranteesAMD has guaranteed up to $4.1bn of a commercial partner's data centre lease agreements and has entered data centre lease agreements for $4.5bn plus a further $9.5bn after the quarter, with terms of up to 16 years.
- −4CompetitionNvidia dominates with Rubin and CUDA, and the hyperscalers are rolling out their own chips at gigawatt scale (TPU, Trainium, Maia, MTIA), often designed with Broadcom. AMD fights for second place against the in-house chips.
- −3Execution, inventory and obligationsHelios (first rack-scale system, MI450) only begins to be delivered in Q3, and growth is back-loaded. Purchase commitments are $30.3bn ($17.4bn for the rest of 2026), and inventory has risen to $8.5bn (inventory turnover 2.4).
- −4Insider tradingLisa Su sold 2 × 125,000 shares (about $113m) in May and again in August and September; CTO Papermaster, CFO Jean Hu and Forrest Norrod have also sold in August-September. No insider buying, and insiders own only 0.44%.
- −2Export controls / geopoliticsMI308 sales to China require a licence and surrendering 15% of China revenue to the US government and have shrunk to approx. $100m in Q1. All advanced production is at TSMC in Taiwan.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+7 of +15
- +2
- +3Guidance / estimatesQ2 revenue 11.5bn $ (+50%), data centre +107%. Q3 guided to 13.0bn $ (+41%) with 56% adjusted gross margin; management expects data centre AI to grow over 100% in 2027, and analysts expect EPS +106% in 2027.
- +2Customer breadth in AILarge commitments from three of the largest AI buyers (OpenAI, Meta, Anthropic) plus EPYC server processors to all hyperscalers make AMD the only real GPU platform besides Nvidia.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
GAAP figures are depressed by about $2.2bn of annual amortisation from the Xilinx purchase (goodwill $25.5bn) and lifted by investment gains ($483m in Q2). Warrants to OpenAI and Meta for up to 160m shares each (about 20% of share capital) at $0.01 have not yet been earned and are not in the accounts. Client and Gaming (about 1/3 of revenue) are cyclical, but data centre dominates, so cyclical = no. No customer over 10% is disclosed in the 10-Q.
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