Rankings Tech hardware & optics Canaan
Canaan
34
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
The model found several serious problems. That does not mean the stock will fall.
Biggest deductions
- Margin−12
- Multiples vs own history−10
- Quality of growth−8
Strengths
- Insider buying+1
Speculative profile
A penny stock under DKK 3. The asymmetry rating is separate from the Bjarvik score and is not a recommendation.
- Asymmetry (1–10)
- 3
- Price
- 2.27 DKK
- Market value
- DKK 1,697m
- Cash runway
- 6 months
- Cash / debt
- 66.0 / 58.8m USD
- Dilution, 12 months
- +97%
Bull case
The bitcoin price rises sharply, and the miners resume purchases: machine sales return to the 2025 level (about USD 100m per quarter with a positive gross margin), and the holding of 1,915 BTC rises in value. Then P/S of 1 on USD 400–500m of revenue could give 2–3 times the market cap; a 5x requires a new crypto bubble like 2021.
Bear case
The bitcoin price ends up low, machine sales stay near zero, and the company burns USD 30–40m per quarter. Cash is empty during 2027, the BTC loans must be repaid, ATM sales and a reverse split dilute shareholders by 50%+, and on non-compliance the stock moves to OTC – effectively zero for a Nordnet investor.
Catalysts
- 2026-11-17 (approx.)Q3 2026 results: guidance is only 11–15m USD in revenue; focus on cash and burngradual stockanalysis.com
- 11 Jan 2027Nasdaq's deadline to regain USD 1; requires a reverse split, otherwise delistingbinary stocktitan.net
- OngoingThe bitcoin price: drives machine sales, own mining (243 BTC in Q2) and the value of the 1,915 BTC holdinggradual nasdaq.com
Risk of going to zeromedium – there are real assets (USD 66m cash, 698 free BTC, mining operations with 10 EH/s), but burn is high, revenue is collapsing, and the listing deadline 11/1-2027 requires a reverse split.
Next financingCash of USD 66m + freely owned BTC (698.5 BTC ≈ USD 47m) vs spending of approx. USD 33m per quarter and loans of 58.8m. Runway is approx. 6 months on cash alone and approx. 10 months incl. free BTC. The next financing is likely via the ATM program, more BTC loans or sale of BTC during H1 2027 – and presumably after a reverse split.
Warrants & convertiblesSeries A-1 convertible preferred shares (about USD 200m) have been fully converted to ADS and sold in the market. ATM programme of up to USD 270m registered (only 1.5m ADS sold in H1 2026, no sales since Q2 began). No convertible bonds found; employee options not examined.
Insiders, last 12 monthsManagement bought 1,065,000 ADS at USD 0.35 on 24/6-2026. The company has bought back 16.4m ADS for USD 7.4m (Q1 and August 2026). No insider sales found.
Largest ownersNot examined in detail. Insiders c. 8.9% and institutions c. 14.1% according to stockanalysis; founder/CEO Nangeng Zhang is the largest insider.
Circio check(1) Small market cap: partial – approx. DKK 1.7bn is large for a penny stock. (2) Hot theme: partial – bitcoin, but mining machines are out of favor. (3) Upcoming milestones: no – no binary data, only earnings reports and the bitcoin price. (4) Major partner: no. (5) Funding for 2+ years: no – runway 6–10 months. (6) Price near the bottom after a large decline: yes – −61% in a year and −95%+ from the 2021 peak.
Why this asymmetryThe stock is a leveraged bitcoin option: if bitcoin rises sharply, it can double or triple, but the business burns cash, revenue is down 90% from the peak, and a reverse split plus ATM dilution are likely. A Chinese ADS with repeated financings drags it down.
How the score is built
From 100 to 34, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 0.20 USD
- Median analyst target
- 1.25 USD
- Upside to median
- +541.0%
- Analysts
- 6
- Target range
- 0.75 – 2.10 USD
- 52-week change
- −86%
- P/E (trailing)
- n/a
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−27 of −30
- −12MarginThe gross margin was −92% in Q2 2026 (gross loss USD 29.3m on 31.9m revenue, incl. an inventory write-down of about 25m), the operating margin −192%, and the net loss was USD 97.6m in the quarter. TTM net loss −USD 299m; the company has lost money every year since 2023.
- −8Quality of growthRevenue fell 68% to USD 31.9m in Q2 2026 (machine sales -81% to 13.6m), and guidance for Q3 is only USD 11-15m vs 150m in Q3 2025. The record year 2025 (530m) was a cyclical peak, not a structural improvement; analysts expect -72% in 2026.
- −4MoatCanaan is a small no. 3 in ASIC mining machines after Bitmain and MicroBT and sells at only about USD 5.50 per TH/s; the shift towards its own mining (55% of revenue) makes the company an ordinary bitcoin miner with no price advantage beyond power at about USD 0.043/kWh.
- −3Capital allocationThe company is buying back its own shares (16.4m ADS for USD 7.4m up to 8/9/2026) while burning over USD 100m a year and has sold ETH and BTC to raise liquidity. The convertible preferred share financing (USD 200m) was converted and sold into the market by the investor.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−10 of −35
- −10Multiples vs own historyP/S 0.58 and P/B 0.88 are at the low end of 2021–2025 (P/S 0.54–2.42; P/B 0.57–2.44), but that is because revenue is collapsing: forward P/S is 1.49, and Q3 guidance annualised (approx. USD 50m) gives P/S around 5. No earnings or FCF to price on, and book value consists partly of inventory that has just been written down.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 5 findings−24 of −35
- −6Listing riskThe ADS has traded below USD 1 since autumn 2025. In July 2026 Nasdaq gave an extra 180-day deadline to 11/1-2027 after the move to the Nasdaq Capital Market; at a price of USD 0.35 this almost certainly requires a reverse split (about 1:5 or more), which has not yet been approved. Otherwise delisting to OTC, which Nordnet does not trade.
- −7Liquidity and debtCash was USD 66.0m at 30/6-2026 vs loans of USD 58.8m; 1,117 of the 1,915 BTC are pledged or lent out, only 698.5 BTC (USD 47m) are freely owned. FCF was -USD 133m TTM, and the Altman Z-score is -0.5. With Q3 revenue of USD 11-15m, cash lasts only a few quarters without selling BTC or new shares.
- −6DilutionThe number of ADSs rose 97% in a year (preferred shares converted and ATM sales), and an ATM programme of up to USD 270m is registered – more than the entire market cap. At a price of USD 0.35, new financing means heavy dilution.
- −3Regulation and geopoliticsChinese mining machines are under US suspicion: DHS has investigated Bitmain's machines as a security risk ('Operation Red Sunset'), and tariffs on Chinese electronics hit sales to the US, which is Canaan's most important market for both sales and its own mining.
- −2Governance (Chinese ADS)Cayman holding with operations and management in China, ADS structure and a history of large equity financings and sell-downs; minority shareholders have limited protection, and short interest is about 10% of shares.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 1 finding+1 of +15
- +1Insider buyingManagement bought 1,065,000 ADS at USD 0.35 on 24/6-2026 (about USD 0.37m) - a small but genuine insider purchase near the bottom.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny analysis (Under DKK 3 – USA). Chinese company (Cayman holding) listed with ADS on Nasdaq; 1 ADS = 15 A shares. Share count: the company reports 690.6m ADS at 30/6-2026 (before the buyback of 13.6m ADS in August), while stockanalysis/Nordnet use 747m (MV USD 258m ≈ DKK 1,697m); both figures are mentioned. Revenue growth in the penny object is the latest quarter (−68% y/y); TTM growth (+28%) is misleading because it is carried by the record quarters in H2 2025. Quarterly burn (about USD 33m) is estimated from TTM FCF of −USD 133m, because the Q2 press release does not show cash flow. Largest owners and the precise use of the ATM programme have not been investigated in detail. Industry: Canaan designs ASIC chips and builds bitcoin mining machines, and more than half of revenue is now own mining; placed in 'Tech hardware & optics' as the closest category. Cyclical, because earnings follow the bitcoin price and the miners' investment cycle.
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