Rankings Commodities & uranium Cerrado Gold
Cerrado Gold
74
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Jurisdiction (Argentina)−7
- Margin−5
- Project quality−5
Strengths
- Production growth and guidance+2
- Strategic investor+2
- Positive operating cash flow+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 74, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 2 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 2.15 CAD
- Median analyst target
- 3.95 CAD
- Upside to median
- +83.7%
- Analysts
- 3
- Target range
- 3.87 – 4.46 CAD
- 52-week change
- +45%
- P/E (trailing)
- 52.1
- Forward P/E
- n/a
- PEG
- n/a
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 4 findings−16 of −30
- −5MarginEBITDA margin 37% and operating margin 24% TTM, but net margin is only 2.2%, because the effective tax rate was 90%; AISC of USD 1,933/oz in Q2 is in the expensive half of the industry.
- −3ROICROIC only 5.0% and ROE 6.5% despite a gold price above USD 4,000, because capex (USD 63m TTM) and tax swallow most of the operating earnings.
- −5Project qualityMDN is a small mine (50,000–60,000 GEO in 2026) with no updated reserve; PEA and new resource only come in Q1 2027. Mont Sorcier requires a large iron capex, and the BFS has been postponed to H1 2027.
- −3Capital allocationThe share count rose 12.2% over a year, most recently a placement to Eric Sprott with half warrants at CAD 3.35; positive that streams on MDN and Lagoa Salgada were bought back, but it cost USD 31.3m.
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−3 of −35
- −3Multiples vs history and peersEV/EBITDA 3.3 vs 3.9-9.2 in 2021-2025 and forward P/E 9.7, but P/S 1.15 vs 0.24-1.22 and P/B 3.2 are at the high end of history. Serabi Gold (EV about CAD 246m) is a comparable small producer. Analysts' price targets are CAD 3.59-4.07.
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 4 findings−17 of −35
- −7Jurisdiction (Argentina)All earnings come from Santa Cruz province; the Q2 report mentions considerable wage pressure and rising fuel costs, and the tax rate was 90% TTM. Currency and capital controls and political shifts are a persistent risk.
- −5Debt and liquidityDebt USD 62.6m against cash of USD 25.3m at 30/6-2026, current ratio 0.85 and negative working capital; FCF was −USD 11.6m in Q2 (operating cash flow 11.6 vs capex 23.2), and the stream buy-back of USD 31.3m in July had to be financed on top.
- −3Lagoa Salgada permitThe environmental approval in Portugal is in court: a court suspended a negative environmental opinion in June 2026, but the main case is ongoing, and the optimised FS is delayed.
- −2Operating risk on one assetHeap leach production was hit in 2026 by water shortage in leaching; with one producing asset, operating problems feed straight through to cash flow.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 3 findings+5 of +15
- +2Production growth and guidanceH1 2026 production 28,257 GEO versus 22,600 a year earlier (+25%); management expects to hit the high end of guidance of 50,000–60,000 GEO.
- +2Strategic investorEric Sprott invested CAD 10m at CAD 2.50 per unit (above the day's price) in September 2026.
- +1Positive operating cash flowOperating cash flow USD 76.1m TTM and adjusted EBITDA 28.2m in Q2 (vs 7.4m a year earlier).
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
Penny deep dive (the price is above DKK 3). Gold producer with Minera Don Nicolas (MDN) in Santa Cruz, Argentina, plus the development projects Mont Sorcier (iron, Quebec, 100%) and Lagoa Salgada (polymetallic, Portugal, 80%). Price CAD 2.35 and 142.78m shares (market cap about CAD 336m) from stockanalysis 2/10-2026; Nordnet showed DKK 1,514m. Accounts are kept in USD; stockanalysis' statistics page converts to CAD, while the financial statement pages are in USD. Amounts in the penny object are converted to CAD at 1 USD = 1.418 CAD. The buyback of the Sprott streams for USD 31.3m in July 2026 is not reflected in cash at 30/6, and I have not found how it was financed. Remaining debt, reserves and short data have not been investigated in detail.
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