Rankings Commodities & uranium Norsk Hydro
Norsk Hydro
76
15070100
A view of the same findings, not a new score. How it works
In the 70+ zone: a score above 70 with more than 20% upside to the median analyst target.
Biggest deductions
- Multiples vs own history−5
- Temporary aluminium price−5
- Margin−4
Strengths
- Long-term contracts+2
- Recycling+1
How the score is built
From 100 to 76, step by step: points off for the business, the price and the cracks, back for documented strengths, then three data adjustments.
Start
Score
Hover or select a step to see what drove it. Steps with findings open them below.
Key numbers
As of 3 Nov 2026. Analyst targets tend to be optimistic; read upside as a hint, not a forecast.
- Price
- 65.92 NOK
- Median analyst target
- 80.00 NOK
- Upside to median
- +21.4%
- Analysts
- 17
- Target range
- 55.00 – 118.00 NOK
- 52-week change
- −4%
- P/E (trailing)
- 10.0
- Forward P/E
- 9.6
- PEG
- 0.74
Findings
Every deduction and every plus, with its source. Open a step to read them.
Business
Is the company getting stronger, not just bigger? · 5 findings−13 of −30
- −4MarginThe net margin is only 4.8% (TTM) and was 1.9–3.2% in 2023–2025; pre-tax profit is 7.4% of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA of NOK 8.9bn in Q2 equals about 17% of quarterly revenue of just over NOK 50bn.
- −3ROICHydro's own adjusted RoaCE (12 months) is 10.9% – even with rising aluminium prices. Stockanalysis' ROIC of 22.6% overstates the return.
- −4Quality of growthRevenue has been flat at around NOK 194–208bn since 2022. The Q2 lift comes from Aluminium Metal (EBITDA +165% on a higher aluminium price), while Bauxite & Alumina fell 66%, Energy 53% and Metal Markets 88%. That is price, not a stronger company.
- −1MoatHydro is a price taker on LME aluminium but has a relative advantage: a cost position in the 16th percentile and low-carbon hydropower-based aluminium that earns product premiums.
- −1Capital allocationNet debt rose to NOK 16.3bn from 12.9bn in the quarter. In 2023 NOK 11.5bn of dividends was paid vs FCF of 8.6bn; the dividend swings sharply with the cycle (5.65 → 2.25 → 3.00 NOK).
Price
Today's multiples against the company's own history and its peers. · 1 finding−5 of −35
- −5Multiples vs own historyEV/EBITDA 3.55 is at the top of the 2.69–3.58 range (2021–2025), and P/B 1.46 in the upper part of 1.15–1.61. The forward P/E of 8.6 is low vs 8.3–15.4 but rests on a peak-price estimate; the trailing P/E is 16.7. The FCF yield is 4.5% (TTM).
Cracks
Cash flow, customers, debt, insiders, guidance and what sits behind the headline numbers. · 3 findings−10 of −35
- −5Temporary aluminium priceThe aluminium price has been lifted by supply disruptions in the Middle East (including EGA's Al Taweelah smelter). The price fell when the supply outlook improved, and the share price has fallen from NOK 120 to about 82. Analysts expect EPS −5% in 2027.
- −3Alunorte and gas supplyAlunorte, the world's largest alumina refinery outside China, had to cut to 50% of capacity in August because of interrupted gas supply from the New Fortress company CELBA. The Q3 impact is USD 75–100m, and there is dependence on one gas supplier.
- −2Hydrology and energyNordic reservoirs were at 61.9% vs a normal 67.9%. Energy EBITDA fell 53% because of lower production and losses on price-area differences, and the stronger NOK also weighed.
Plus
Only documented strengths. · 2 findings+3 of +15
- +2Long-term contractsA five-year supply agreement with Nexans for 85,000 t of low-carbon wire rod, a 10-year power deal with Eviny (0.5 TWh/year 2031–2040) and the restart of 75,000 t of capacity at Slovalco.
- +1RecyclingRecycling delivered over NOK 900m of adjusted EBITDA in Q2 and is a growing, less price-sensitive earnings source.
Caveats
What the score does not capture, or where the data is weak.
stockanalysis shows an operating margin of 20% and ROIC of 22.6%, but these are distorted: profit before tax is only 7.4% of revenue, and Hydro's own adjusted RoaCE (12 months) is 10.9%. The company's figures are used. Forward P/E 8.6 rests on EPS of 8.70 in 2026 at a high aluminium price. The price has fallen from the 52-week high of 120.40 to about 82. Peers (Alcoa, Century, Rio Tinto Aluminium) and US aluminium tariffs (Section 232) have not been examined. The Investor Day on 25 Nov. 2026 may change the strategy.
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